Please enjoy this comprehensive daily analysis of the real estate and mortgage markets prepared by our AI platform ALFReD. Know Better. Work Smarter. Be More Successful. Tim

Opening Summary

As we approach the end of 2024, the U.S. real estate market navigates a complex landscape characterized by persistent inflation, a resilient yet softening labor market, and sector-specific challenges across both residential and commercial segments. Recent economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy shifts are reshaping market dynamics, creating a nuanced environment for investors, homebuyers, and industry professionals. This Daily Dose provides a comprehensive overview of the latest trends, data, and insights across the real estate spectrum, with a focus on implications for mortgage lenders and policymakers.

Key Takeaways

1. Inflation remains sticky, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticking up to 2.7% annually in November, posing ongoing challenges for monetary policy.
2. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in September, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
3. Residential real estate shows resilience with moderate price growth and improving sales activity, despite ongoing affordability challenges exacerbated by elevated mortgage rates.
4. Commercial real estate experiences a “great awakening” with divergent performance across sectors – office facing headwinds while industrial and retail show unexpected strength.
5. CMBS delinquency rates are on the rise, particularly in the retail and office sectors, reflecting broader market challenges and refinancing concerns.
6. REITs performance varies significantly by sector, mirroring the broader commercial real estate trends, with data centers and industrial leading the pack.

Economic News & Data from Last Week

Last week’s economic releases provided a comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy, with significant implications for both residential and commercial real estate markets:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI):
  • Increased to 2.7% in November, up from 2.6% in October U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.3% year-over-year, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Housing costs increased 4.7% over the last year, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2022, but still a significant driver of overall inflation.
  • Notable increases in car insurance (12.7%), medical care (3.1%), and education (4.2%).
• Producer Price Index (PPI):
  • Rose 0.4% in November, with a 3.0% increase over the past 12 months U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7%, while the index for final demand services moved up 0.2%.
  • Over 60% of the November increase in final demand goods prices can be attributed to a 2.7% rise in energy prices.
• Unemployment Claims:
  • Increased unexpectedly to 242,000 for the week ending December 7, up 17,000 from the previous week Calculated Risk.
  • The four-week moving average rose to 224,250, up 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average.
  • Continuing claims increased to 1.898 million, suggesting some softening in the labor market.
• Real Earnings:
  • Remained unchanged from October to November, with real average weekly earnings increasing 0.3% due to an increase in the average workweek U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Over the year, real average hourly earnings increased 1.3%, while real average weekly earnings rose 1.0%.
  • These figures suggest that wage growth is barely keeping pace with inflation, potentially impacting consumer spending power and housing affordability.
• GDP Growth:
  • Q3 2024 saw a 3.0% annualized growth, up from 2.1% in Q2 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Growth was driven by increases in consumer spending (2.0% increase), private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment (7.4% increase).
  • Exports increased by 5.4%, while imports decreased by 0.1%, contributing positively to GDP growth.

These indicators suggest an economy still grappling with inflationary pressures while showing signs of potential labor market softening. The persistent inflation and robust GDP growth may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting future interest rate trajectories and, by extension, mortgage rates and real estate market dynamics.

Residential Real Estate Markets

The housing market demonstrates resilience amidst economic headwinds, with notable regional variations and evolving trends:

• Home Prices:
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 5.8% annual gain in September, up from 5.5% in the previous month S&P Global.
  • The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 4.8%, while the 20-City Composite posted a 5.5% year-over-year gain.
  • Phoenix, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.
• Sales Activity:
  • Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million in October, down 4.1% from September and 14.6% from a year ago National Association of Realtors.
  • The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $391,800, an increase of 3.4% from October 2023 ($378,800).
  • First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in October, up from 27% in September and 28% in October 2023.
• Inventory Levels:
  • Total housing inventory at the end of October was 1.15 million units, down 5.7% from September but up 2.7% from one year ago (1.12 million) National Association of Realtors.
  • Unsold inventory sits at a 3.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.4 months in September and 3.3 months in October 2023.
  • Properties typically remained on the market for 23 days in October, up from 21 days in September and 21 days in October 2023.
• New Construction:
  • Housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,372,000, 1.9% above the September estimate U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,487,000, 1.1% above the September rate.
  • Completions of privately-owned housing units in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,410,000, 4.6% above the September estimate.
• Regional Variations:
  • Northeast: Existing home sales fell 5.3% from September, with a median price of $439,200, up 7.5% from October 2023.
  • Midwest: Sales declined 4.2%, with a median price of $291,200, a 5.1% increase from a year ago.
  • South: October sales were down 5.8%, with a median price of $374,000, up 3.9% from the previous year.
  • West: Sales decreased 0.8%, with the median price at $602,200, up 2.3% from October 2023.
• Consumer Sentiment:
  • Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased 2.1 points in November to 63.8, its highest level since June Fannie Mae.
  • The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from 18% to 23%, while the percentage who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 61% to 63%.
  • 45% of respondents expect mortgage rates to go down in the next 12 months, up from 24% last month.

These trends indicate a housing market that is adapting to new economic realities, with regional disparities and evolving consumer preferences shaping the landscape. The recent improvements in consumer sentiment, coupled with expectations of lower mortgage rates, could potentially boost market activity in the coming months.

Mortgage Markets

The mortgage landscape continues to evolve, influenced by recent economic data and Federal Reserve actions:

• Mortgage Rates:
  • The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages stood at 6.95% for the week ending December 14, down from 7.03% the previous week Freddie Mac.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.38%, down from 6.44% the previous week.
  • 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 6.39%, a slight decrease from 6.42% the week before.
• Refinancing Activity:
  • The Refinance Index increased 19% from the previous week and was 1% higher than the same week one year ago Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 37.2% of total applications, up from 34.7% the previous week.
  • The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.8% of total applications.
• Purchase Applications:
  • The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4% from one week earlier.
  • The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1% compared with the previous week and was 17% lower than the same week one year ago.
• Mortgage Credit Availability:
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) increased by 1.0% to 96.7 in November Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The Conventional MCAI increased 2.1%, while the Government MCAI decreased by 0.2%.
  • The Jumbo MCAI increased by 2.4%, and the Conforming MCAI rose by 1.6%.
• Delinquency Rates:
  • The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.62% of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.18%.
• Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Loans:
  • The FHA share of total applications increased to 14.5% from 14.0% the week prior Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.71% from 6.76%.
• Veterans Affairs (VA) Loans:
  • The VA share of total applications increased to 13.8% from 12.2% the week prior.
  • VA loan applications saw a significant surge, particularly in refinancing activity.

These trends highlight a mortgage market that is adapting to changing economic conditions, with lenders and borrowers alike navigating a complex landscape of rates, regulations, and affordability challenges. The recent decline in mortgage rates and increase in refinancing activity suggest potential opportunities for mortgage lenders to capture market share and assist homeowners in lowering their monthly payments.

Commercial Real Estate Markets

The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a “great awakening” characterized by divergent performance across property types:

• Office Sector:
  • Continues to face significant challenges, particularly in large urban metros, due to changes in work preferences and hybrid models.
  • National office vacancy rates reached 18.2% in Q3 2024, up from 17.8% in the previous quarter CBRE.
  • Net absorption remained negative at -13.5 million sq. ft. in Q3, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of negative absorption.
  • The average asking rent for office space decreased by 1.2% year-over-year to $35.85 per sq. ft.
• Industrial Sector:
  • Shows ongoing strength, with demand expected to outpace supply in coming years, driven by e-commerce and onshoring trends.
  • Industrial vacancy rates remained low at 3.9% in Q3 2024, despite 90.4 million sq. ft. of new completions JLL.
  • Net absorption reached 82.7 million sq. ft. in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to 245.1 million sq. ft.
  • Average asking rents increased by 6.2% year-over-year, reaching $8.15 per sq. ft.
• Retail Sector:
  • Emerges as a surprising bright spot, with steady demand for grocery and discount stores, and potential for rent increases due to limited new supply.
  • Neighborhood and community shopping center vacancy rates decreased to 5.9% in Q3 2024 Cushman & Wakefield.
  • Net absorption for neighborhood and community centers totaled 5.2 million sq. ft. in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to 15.7 million sq. ft.
  • Average asking rents for neighborhood and community centers increased by 2.8% year-over-year to $22.76 per sq. ft.
• Multifamily Sector:
  • Experiences strong fundamentals, adapting to shifting demographic trends and benefiting from affordability concerns in the single-family market.
  • National apartment vacancy rates stood at 5.2% in Q3 2024, up slightly from 5.0% in Q2 CBRE.
  • Average effective rents increased by 2.1% year-over-year, reaching $1,847 per unit.
  • Net absorption totaled 47,000 units in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to 142,000 units.
• Investment Trends:
  • Total commercial real estate investment volume reached $102.5 billion in Q3 2024, down 15% year-over-year but up 7% from Q2 CBRE.
  • Industrial and multifamily sectors continue to attract the most investment, accounting for 60% of total volume in Q3.
  • Private investors remain the most active buyer group, representing 72% of acquisitions in Q3.
• Emerging Trends:
  • ESG considerations are increasingly influencing investment decisions, with a growing focus on sustainable and energy-efficient properties.
  • Adaptive reuse projects gain momentum, particularly in the office-to-residential conversion space.
  • PropTech adoption accelerates, with increased investment in technologies for property management, tenant experience, and data analytics.

These trends highlight the complex and evolving nature of the commercial real estate market in 2024, with significant variations across property types and geographic regions. The divergent performance across sectors presents both challenges and opportunities for investors and lenders in the commercial real estate space.

CMBS/REIT Markets

The performance of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) reflects broader CRE market trends:

• CMBS Delinquency Rates:
  • The overall CMBS delinquency rate stood at 4.12% in November 2024, up from 3.86% in October Trepp.
  • By property type, delinquency rates were:
    • Lodging: 6.89% (up 42 bps)
    • Retail: 7.24% (up 86 bps)
    • Office: 5.37% (up 31 bps)
    • Industrial: 0.72% (down 3 bps)
    • Multifamily: 2.18% (up 15 bps)
• CMBS Issuance and Trading:
  • CMBS issuance totaled $65.2 billion year-to-date through November 2024, down 18% from the same period in 2023 Commercial Mortgage Alert.
  • The third quarter saw the second-highest transaction volume since early 2022, indicating a gradual market recovery.
  • CMBS spreads have tightened, with AAA-rated CMBS trading at 95 basis points over swaps, down from 120 basis points at the start of the year.
• REIT Performance:
  • The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index posted a total return of 8.7% year-to-date through November 2024 Nareit.
  • Performance varies significantly by sector:
    • Industrial REITs: 15.2% total return YTD
    • Retail REITs: 9.8% total return YTD
    • Office REITs: -5.3% total return YTD
    • Multifamily REITs: 7.6% total return YTD
    • Data Center REITs: 22.1% total return YTD, the best-performing sector
• REIT Dividend Yields:
  • The average dividend yield for All Equity REITs stood at 4.21% as of November 2024.
  • Sector-specific dividend yields:
    • Industrial: 3.15%
    • Retail: 5.02%
    • Office: 7.84%
    • Multifamily: 3.89%
    • Healthcare: 6.12%
• REIT Capital Raising:
  • REITs raised $52.3 billion in capital year-to-date through November 2024, including $28.7 billion in equity and $23.6 billion in debt Nareit.
  • This represents a 15% increase from the same period in 2023, indicating improved access to capital markets.
• CMBS Special Servicing Rates:
  • The overall CMBS special servicing rate increased to 6.25% in November 2024, up from 6.08% in October Trepp.
  • By property type, special servicing rates were:
    • Lodging: 9.12%
    • Retail: 11.36%
    • Office: 7.84%
    • Industrial: 0.95%
    • Multifamily: 2.73%
• CRE CLO Market:
  • CRE CLO issuance reached $18.7 billion year-to-date through November 2024, down 25% from the same period in 2023 Commercial Mortgage Alert.
  • The average size of CRE CLO deals has decreased, reflecting a more cautious approach from issuers and investors.

The CMBS and REIT markets continue to reflect the broader trends in commercial real estate, with significant variations across property types. The rise in delinquency rates, particularly in the retail and office sectors, highlights the ongoing challenges faced by certain segments of the market. However, the strong performance of industrial and data center REITs, along with the gradual recovery in CMBS issuance, suggests pockets of opportunity and resilience within the commercial real estate landscape.

As we move into 2025, the performance of these markets will likely be influenced by broader economic trends, including interest rate movements, inflation dynamics, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. For mortgage lenders and investors in the commercial real estate space, staying attuned to these trends and maintaining a diversified approach will be crucial in navigating the evolving market landscape.