Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 10

This might seem misplaced but the dominant story today is not housing — it’s oil. Brent crude temporarily blew past $119/barrel this weekend on developments in the Iran war. There were cascading effects on mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and consumer confidence. Mortgage rates, which had briefly dipped below 6% in late February, are already reversing. Mortgage News Daily described Monday’s bond market action as a “Big Bad Day,” which is about as understated as the bond market gets.

The ICE Mortgage Monitor, released today, captures the market just before this reversal — Q4 originations hit a 3.5-year high, refinance volume surged 50% year-over-year, and 5.4 million borrowers were sitting in refinance-eligible territory as of February. That window may now be closing. ICE also flagged that property insurance costs hit another all-time high in 2025, with the most burdened borrowers measurably more likely to fall behind on payments.

On the legislative front, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed its first Senate vote 90–8, which sounds like a triumph of bipartisanship until you read the fine print. A late-added provision requiring institutional investors to sell build-to-rent homes within seven years has turned NAHB (and a lot of others) from a supporter into an opponent. The irony: a housing bill designed to increase supply may end up reducing it by killing the fastest-growing segment of new single-family construction.

In commercial real estate, CMBS delinquencies improved 5.18% in February — the best month since 2022 — but office remains near 18% delinquent and multifamily absorption has been below 50% for an unprecedented four straight quarters. The supply wave is cresting, which should eventually help, but “eventually” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Oil prices explode past $110/barrel Sunday–Monday on Iran war and Dow futures sink 1,000 points. The energy shock threatens to reverse recent mortgage rate improvements and puts the Fed in a policy bind ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release and the March 18–19 FOMC meeting.
• Bonds sell off “early and aggressively” Monday per Mortgage News Daily; top-tier 30-year fixed rates jump back into the low 6% range. The MND daily index stood at 6.14% as of its last Friday close.
• NAHB threatens to oppose the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act over a new provision requiring institutional investors to sell build-to-rent homes within seven years of completion. The industry calls the mandate a threat to future BTR supply.
• FHFA’s repeal of its Equitable Housing Finance Plans rule takes effect today, eliminating fair-lending planning requirements for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
• New York Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (released March 9) shows one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.2% in February from 3.1% in January, the largest monthly spike since the post-pandemic supply chain crisis.
• Multifamily three-month absorption rate stays below 50% for an unprecedented fourth straight quarter per Census SOMA data released March 3.
• National apartment vacancy hits a record 7.4% on Apartment List’s index; year-over-year rents are –1.5% nationally, though monthly rents ticked positive in February for the first time since August.
• CMBS delinquency volume fell 5.18% in February, the largest monthly drop since 2022, even as office delinquencies hover near 18%.
• Fed officials remain sharply divided: Gov. Waller calls a March rate cut “a coin flip,” while Goolsbee warns inflation data is “disturbingly high.” Markets now price the first cut no earlier than July.
• ICE March Mortgage Monitor: Q4 originations hit a 3.5-year high at 1.44 million loans; refinance-eligible borrowers surged to 5.4 million after rates dipped below 6% in February, the largest pool since early 2022.
• Property insurance costs hit an all-time high in 2025 per ICE, rising 6.6% ($149) YoY. Borrowers in the highest insurance-burden quintile are at least 22% more likely to be non-current on their mortgages.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• NAHB Opposes Senate Housing Bill Over 7-Year Build-to-Rent Sell-Off Mandate. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bipartisan package advanced by the Senate 90–8, bans institutional investors owning 350+ single-family homes from purchasing additional properties but exempts build-to-rent construction. However, a late-added provision requires BTR investors to sell completed homes to individuals within seven years, with renters given a 30-day right of first refusal. NAHB is now threatening a key vote in opposition, calling the mandate a dealbreaker that would “essentially kill any future BTR activity.” National Mortgage News
• Build-to-Rent Industry at a Crossroads as Senate Bill Threatens Supply Pipeline. Build-to-rent completions have grown more than tenfold over the past decade, with roughly 7% of new single-family homes now built for rental markets. Urban Institute’s Laurie Goodman has called BTR a “win-win” for addressing the 4-million-home supply gap. Rick Palacios Jr. of John Burns Research posted on X that “much of the housing supply” shown in recent BTR data “is now in jeopardy.” Inman / NPR
• Spring Buying Season Outlook: CBS Reports Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers by 600,000. As the spring market begins, Redfin data shows median home prices rose just 1.1% YoY in January, down sharply from 4.1% a year ago. However, new listings decreased 6.1% from a year ago in February, and overall inventory remains roughly 15% below 2019 levels per HousingWire data. Regional divergence is widening: the South and West have above-prepandemic inventory, while the Midwest and Northeast remain tight. CBS News
• Zillow: Median-Income Household Can Now Afford a $331,483 Home, Highest Since March 2022.Affordability has improved modestly as mortgage rates dipped and wage growth outpaced home price appreciation. Zillow noted this is the highest affordable price point in four years. However, the Iran-war-driven rate reversal and rising energy costs could erode these gains quickly. Yahoo Finance

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Mortgage News Daily: Bonds Have “Big Bad Day” Monday; 30-Year Fixed Jumps Back to Low 6% Range.Mortgage News Daily reported Monday that bonds sold off “early and aggressively” as the Iran war escalation and oil price surge hammered markets. The MND 30-year fixed daily index was 6.14% as of its March 6 close (+0.01%). Monday’s sell-off suggests rates moved materially higher to start the week. MND’s headline: “Big Bad Day For Bonds. What’s Next?” Mortgage News Daily
• Freddie Mac Weekly Average Hits 6.0%; Brief Sub-6% Window Has Closed. Freddie Mac’s PMMS for the week ending March 6 showed the 30-year fixed rate at 6.0%, reversing a late-February dip below that threshold. The increase was driven by Middle East conflict uncertainty and inflation fears. The 30-year rate is still down more than 50 basis points from a year ago when it averaged 6.62%. Money.com / Freddie Mac
• Rate Forecasts Converge Around 6%: MBA at 6.10%, Fannie Mae at 6.0%, NAHB at 5.99%. Most major forecasters project the 30-year rate staying in a tight band for 2026. Morgan Stanley is the outlier, expecting a mid-year dip to 5.50–5.75% before a rebound. The MBA projects 6.4% by Q4. All forecasts carry elevated uncertainty given the Iran conflict’s impact on energy and inflation. Yahoo Finance
• 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes to 4.14% Monday on Inflation Expectations. Treasury yields moved sharply higher Monday as oil’s surge fueled inflation bets. The 10-year yield rose roughly 6.6 basis points to 4.198% per Fortune. MND noted Tuesday pre-market that heavy overnight selling continued, with 10-year yields challenging the 4.10% technical level. Mortgage News Daily / Fortune
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 2025 Originations Hit 3.5-Year High; 5.4 Million Borrowers Now Refi-Eligible.ICE’s March 2026 Mortgage Monitor, released today, reports total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in Q4 2025, the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of Q4 lending – highest share since early 2022 and up roughly 50% YoY. Servicer retention climbed to an eight-year high, with one in three refinancing borrowers staying with their existing servicer. February’s rate dip below 6% expanded the refinance-eligible population (75+ bps in the money) to 5.4 million, the largest pool since early 2022. ICE Mortgage Technology
• ICE: Property Insurance Costs Hit All-Time High in 2025, but Growth Slows. Average annual property insurance payments rose 6.6% ($149) in 2025 to a new record, though this was the slowest pace of growth since 2020 and Q4 marked the first quarter-over-quarter decline since ICE began tracking in late 2023. Insurance cost growth (6.6%) modestly outpaced overall PITI growth (6.3%); the largest PITI increases were in mortgage interest (10.2%) and property taxes (7.4%). ICE Climate data shows borrowers in the highest insurance-burden quintile are at least 22% more likely to be non-current than those in the lowest quintile. For every percentage-point increase in housing expenses allocated to insurance, the non-current rate rose roughly 0.14 percentage points. ICE Mortgage Monitor / Calculated Risk
• ICE: National Delinquency Rate Dips to 3.65% in January, 15 bps Below Pre-Pandemic Benchmark. The national mortgage delinquency rate fell 3 basis points in January to 3.65%, now 15 basis points below the pre-pandemic January 2020 level. Single-family prices are up just 0.67% YoY per ICE’s Home Price Index, while condo prices are down 2.2%, with nearly 60% of major markets seeing condo price declines and 97% seeing condos underperform single-family homes. ICE Mortgage Monitor / Calculated Risk

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• FHFA Equitable Housing Finance Plans Repeal Takes Effect Today (March 9). The final rule repealing Part 1293—the Fair Lending, Fair Housing, and Equitable Housing Finance Plans regulation—becomes effective today. FHFA stated the repeal eliminates duplicative oversight and aligns with the Administration’s deregulatory priorities. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHLBanks remain subject to federal fair lending laws enforced by HUD and CFPB. Federal Register
• Senate Advances 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 90–8; Headed for Floor Debate. The bipartisan package, led by Sens. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), combines the Senate’s ROAD to Housing Act with the House’s Housing for the 21st Century Act. Key provisions include a ban on institutional investors (owning 350+ homes) acquiring additional single-family properties, NEPA review streamlining for housing projects, HOME program reforms raising income eligibility thresholds, manufactured housing definition changes, and new grants to restore aging homes. The White House issued a Statement of Administration Policy recommending the President sign it. Bisnow
• FOMC Meeting March 18–19 Looms Large; CPI Data Due Wednesday March 11. The first FOMC meeting since January will be closely watched. January minutes showed officials split on rate direction. Wednesday’s February CPI report will be a critical input. Markets currently price the first rate cut no earlier than July 2026, pushed further out by the Iran war’s inflationary effects. Fed Gov. Waller called a March cut “a coin flip” before Friday’s jobs miss. Federal Reserve / TheStreet
• FHFA 2026–2028 GSE Housing Goals Now in Effect: Low-Income Benchmarks Reduced. Effective February 23, the final rule cut the single-family low-income purchase goal from 25% to 21% and the very-low-income goal from 6% to 3.5%. Multifamily affordable housing targets remain unchanged. MBA endorsed the revisions as better aligned with current market conditions. Scotsman Guide

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Oil Prices Surge Past $110/Barrel Sunday–Monday as Iran War Spirals. Brent crude exceeded $119/barrel and WTI topped $113 on Sunday–Monday as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Iraq’s output has collapsed 60%. AAA reports the national average gasoline price reached $3.41/gallon, up $0.43 in one week. G-7 finance ministers are reportedly discussing a coordinated release of petroleum reserves, but President Trump downplayed SPR action, calling short-term oil prices “a very small price to pay.” Al Jazeera / Fortune
• New York Fed Consumer Expectations: 1-Year Inflation Expectations Spike to 4.2% in February. Released March 9, the NY Fed survey shows one-year inflation expectations surged from 3.1% in January to 4.2% in February, the largest monthly increase since the post-pandemic supply chain crisis. Three-year expectations also de-anchored, rising to 3.5%, suggesting consumers view the oil shock as more than transitory. New York Fed / Financial Content
• Global Markets Rout: Asian Stocks Plunge Monday; Nikkei Down 5%, KOSPI Down 6%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 5% and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 6% Monday. U.S. stock futures indicated steep losses at the open. Gold briefly topped $5,029/oz before dipping. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.198% on hotter inflation expectations. Al Jazeera
• Fed Officials Split Ahead of March 18–19 Meeting. SF Fed President Daly said the February jobs report “has got my attention.” Chicago’s Goolsbee called inflation data “disturbingly high” and noted that if both jobs and inflation are worsening simultaneously, the appropriate response is unclear. Former Treasury Secretary Yellen warned the Iran conflict puts the Fed “even more on hold.” CNBC / TheStreet
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Surge; 70%+ of Managers Report Higher Costs. The February ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.4% but the prices-paid component jumped 11.5 points, with more than 70% of purchasing managers reporting higher input costs. The spike reflects early Iran-war and tariff-driven supply chain pressures. ISM via Mortgage News Daily

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• CMBS Delinquency Volume Drops 5.18% in February, Largest Monthly Decline Since 2022. Total CMBS loans more than 30 days delinquent fell to $42.76 billion in February per Trepp data via CRE Direct. Despite the improvement, the office sector delinquency rate remains near 18%. The industry faces roughly $900 billion in scheduled loan maturities in 2026. Commercial Real Estate Direct
• Multifamily 3-Month Absorption Rate Below 50% for Record Fourth Straight Quarter. Census Bureau SOMA data released March 3 shows just 47% of the 93,680 new multifamily units completed in Q2 2025 were absorbed within three months of completion. Prior to this cycle, SOMA had never recorded more than two consecutive quarters below 50%. By 12 months, 91% of units are absorbed. NAHB Eye on Housing / Census Bureau
• National Apartment Vacancy Hits Record 7.4%; YoY Rents Negative at –1.5%. Apartment List’s February index shows national multifamily vacancy at a record 7.4%, with units taking an average of 40 days to lease (up from 36 a year ago). Austin remains the weakest large market at –5.9% YoY. Virginia Beach leads at +5.3%. Monthly rents turned slightly positive in February (+0.2%) after six straight declines. Apartment List
• YTD 2026 Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLO Issuance at $15.4B, Up 15% YoY. CRE Finance Council data shows strong issuance momentum. Notable recent deals include an $856.7M CRE CLO from BrightSpire (95% multifamily), a $631.6M BMO conduit, and a $630M SASB for West Shore’s 13-property garden-style apartment portfolio. CMBS issuance reached $150 billion in 2025, roughly 140% above 2024 levels. CRE Finance Council
• CRE Debt Markets “Funded but Selective”: Spreads Tighten for Top Assets. Northmarq’s 2026 outlook reports life companies increasing allocations and expanding average loan sizes. Spreads for low-leverage multifamily and industrial assets have compressed to 115–125 basis points. Apartments, industrial, and grocery-anchored retail attract the strongest lender interest. Five-and-seven-year structures dominate even as long-term rates in the 5.50–5.75% range are historically competitive. Northmarq
• Data Center Lending Surges: $121.9B in Bank Credit Committed in 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence reports lenders committed an estimated $121.91 billion in credit for U.S. data center properties in 2025. SASB data center issuance grew to $10.7B from $3B in 2024. Southern California’s capacity is expected to roughly double per JLL, though permitting and electricity costs remain key constraints. S&P Global / Altus Group

INDUSTRY NEWS

• Rocket/Redfin Reversal: “Coming Soon” Listings Now Displayed on Redfin. Rocket agreed to immediately display Compass’s “Coming Soon” listings on Redfin, reversing Redfin’s earlier pledge to bar such listings. During a February 26 investor call, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin detailed an unexpected partnership with Redfin on listing distribution. Real Estate News
• Stellar MLS Names Shayne Fairley as CEO; Cotality Adds Wayne Peacock to Board. Fairley steps into the role formerly held by Merri Jo Cowen at one of the nation’s largest MLSs. Separately, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada named Mustafa Abbasi as president. Real Estate News
• Breakthrough Properties Secures $465M CMBS Loan for San Diego Life Science Campus. JPMorgan Chase funded the loan for the 520,000-square-foot campus, with Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs as co-lenders, signaling continued institutional appetite for life science real estate even amid broader market uncertainty. Commercial Property Executive
• CREFC Responds to Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination; Sees “Direct and Significant” Impact on CRE.CRE Finance Council President Lisa Pendergast said strong, transparent Fed leadership is essential to maintaining CRE market stability. Analysts note Warsh’s openness to short-rate cuts could benefit floating-rate bridge and construction loans, but his balance-sheet reduction goals could keep long-end yields elevated, limiting permanent debt relief. CRE Finance Council