Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 11

Housing markets caught a rare tailwind Tuesday as NAR reported existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February to a 4.09 million annual pace, beating expectations, while affordability posted its best reading since March 2022 (yes, really). On Capitol Hill, the Senate cleared a key hurdle with an 89–9 cloture vote (cloture ends debate to move to a speedy vote) on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, potentially setting up the first comprehensive federal housing legislation in three decades. Industry groups are already pushing back on a provision that would require large build-to-rent operators to divest properties—an outcome that could dampen investor demand and slow an already fragile supply pipeline.

Mortgage rates moved with energy markets as Iran-related tensions briefly pushed WTI crude above $100 overnight before reversing sharply, pulling rates back toward Friday’s levels. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year index closed at 6.09%. Origination data also showed signs of life: Optimal Blue reported lock volume rising 9% month-over-month in February, with purchase activity jumping 14%.

With the disappointing jobs report now in the rearview mirror, markets are focused on Wednesday’s CPI print and the Fed’s March 17–18 meeting, where policymakers must balance sticky core inflation against a softening labor market and growing geopolitical risk. In CRE, Walker & Dunlop outlined its five-year strategy at Investor Day, SL Green announced 11 Madison Avenue is now fully leased to an AI-focused tenant, and UWM raised full-year revenue guidance while highlighting AI-driven efficiency gains ahead of the Two Harbors merger vote.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February to a 4.09M annual pace, beating expectations of 3.89M, as affordability improved for an eighth straight month (NAR).
• Mortgage rates finished flat after starting higher; Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed index closed at 6.09%, down 5 bps from the prior close, as oil volatility whipsawed the bond market.
• 10-year Treasury yield settled near 4.11% as oil prices reversed an overnight spike past $100/barrel after President Trump signaled the Iran conflict could end soon.
• UWM Holdings raised Q1 2026 revenue guidance to $800M–$900M and full-year to $3.5B–$4.5B ahead of Two Harbors’ March 16 shareholder vote on their $1.3B merger.
• Walker & Dunlop hosted its Investor Day, unveiling its five-year “Journey to ’30” strategic plan for growth in CRE finance and advisory.
• Senate voted 89-9 to invoke cloture on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, the first major federal housing bill in decades; final passage could come by end of week.
• Housing industry groups warned Congress that the Act’s build-to-rent language requiring divestiture after 7 years could chill new housing supply.
• FHFA’s repeal of Biden-era Equitable Housing Finance Plan rules took effect March 9, ending compliance requirements for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHLBanks.
• NAHB analysis: A 25-basis-point decline in mortgage rates from 6.25% to 6% would bring 1.42 million additional households into homebuying affordability range.
• Optimal Blue: February rate-lock volume surged 9% MoM and ~40% YoY, with purchase locks up 14% MoM and the OBMMI 30-year conforming rate at 5.90%.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.4 showed expansion for a second straight month, but the prices paid component surged to 70.5, the highest since June 2022.
• Fed’s March 17–18 FOMC meeting looms; markets pricing roughly 65% odds of a rate hold, with CPI due March 11.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Existing-Home Sales Rise 1.7% in February, Beat Expectations. NAR reported existing-home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in February, well above the 3.89 million consensus. Sales rose month-over-month in the Midwest, South, and West but fell in the Northeast. Median home price edged up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, while unsold inventory rose 2.4% to 1.29 million units (3.8 months of supply). NAR
• NAR Affordability Index Hits Highest Level Since March 2022. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February from 117.1 in January and 103.1 a year ago, marking eight consecutive months of improvement. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted wage growth is outpacing home price growth by almost four percentage points, though sales remain well below pre-pandemic levels despite over 6 million more jobs than in 2019. NAR
• NAHB: 25 Basis Points of Rate Relief Would Bring 1.42 Million Households Into Affordability Range.NAHB’s updated Priced-Out Estimates show that at a 6.25% mortgage rate, about 31.5 million households can afford a median-priced new home ($413,595). A modest 25 bps decline to 6% would make homeownership accessible for an additional 1.42 million households, underscoring how concentrated household incomes are near key affordability thresholds. NAHB Eye on Housing
• Cotality: National Home Price Growth Cools to 0.7% in January; Midwest Leads. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported national annual home price appreciation slowed to 0.7% in January, down from 0.9% in December. The Midwest led all regions at 3.56% year-over-year growth, while Florida (-2.36%), Colorado (-1.31%), and Utah (-1.11%) recorded the steepest declines. Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp described a “two-speed” housing market. Cotality
• Bright MLS Economist: Spring Season Faces Headwinds from Iran Conflict. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, warned that despite mortgage rates briefly dipping below 6%, the international conflict has pushed them higher in recent days. A prolonged conflict could stall spring home sales, while a limited engagement may allow a quick rebound. HousingWire
• First American: Spring Home-Buying Activity Hinges on New Listings. First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi reported that for-sale inventory is up 9% year-over-year while house-buying power has improved roughly 12%, but new listings remain 4% below last year. The firm’s Existing-Home Sales Outlook forecasts a 0.9% monthly increase in February sales, with a resilient economy, looser credit conditions, and a weakening rate lock-in effect as the primary drivers. Kushi noted the market enters spring with a stronger foundation than a year ago, but new listings activity is the key missing ingredient. First American Economics

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Mortgage News Daily: 30-Year Fixed Rate Closes at 6.09%, Flat After Volatile Session. The MND daily rate index showed the 30-year fixed rate at 6.09% on March 10, down 5 bps from the prior close. Rates initially spiked on record oil price moves but reversed course as oil and bonds recovered throughout the day. MND noted war-related headlines remain the biggest source of potential rate volatility. Mortgage News Daily
• Freddie Mac: Weekly 30-Year Average Ticked Up to 6.00% as of March 5. Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed at 6.00%, up 2 bps from the prior week but still near three-year lows. One year ago, the same rate averaged 6.84%. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.43%. The Mortgage Reports
• MBA/Fannie Mae Forecasts: 30-Year Rate Expected Near 6% Through Year-End. MBA’s February forecast projects the 30-year mortgage rate near 6.10% through end of 2026, while Fannie Mae predicts rates near 6.0% for the full year. Both agencies see rates remaining range-bound in 2027 at 6.0%–6.3%. Yahoo Finance
• Optimal Blue February Report: Lock Volume Up 9% MoM; Purchase Demand Rebounds. Optimal Blue’s Market Advantage report for February showed total rate-lock volume rose 9% MoM and nearly 40% YoY. Purchase lock volume surged 14% MoM, restoring a 59/41 purchase-to-refi mix. The national average loan amount climbed to $404,586, marking the first consecutive months above $400K. Rate-and-term refi locks were up 280% YoY. Non-conforming share expanded to 16.4% of volume, while ARM utilization rose to 10%. Optimal Blue

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Senate Clears Key Hurdle on 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, 89-9. The Senate voted 89-9 on Tuesday to invoke cloture on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, potentially setting up a final vote by end of week. The bipartisan bill, led by Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), would be the first major federal housing legislation in roughly three decades. Key provisions include incentives for new construction, grants for home rehabilitation, expedited environmental reviews for housing, manufactured housing modernization, and restrictions requiring large institutional investors (350+ single-family homes) to divest within seven years. The Hill | Senate Daily Press
• Housing Groups Warn Congress: Build-to-Rent Provision Could Chill Supply. NMHC, MBA, the National Housing Conference, the Real Estate Roundtable, and dozens of housing organizations sent a joint letter to Senate leadership warning that the Act’s language requiring firms owning more than 350 single-family rental units to dispose of them after seven years would effectively eliminate the build-to-rent supply chain. The letter argues that most BTR developers operate beyond that threshold due to the economies of scale required. Connect CRE
• 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act: Section-by-Section Details Available. The Bipartisan Policy Center published a detailed explainer of the combined bill, which merges elements of the House-passed Housing for the 21st Century Act (H.R. 6644, passed 390-9) and the Senate’s ROAD to Housing Act. The package includes roughly 40 sections spanning zoning reform guidance, FHA multifamily loan limit updates, HUD reporting requirements, manufactured housing reforms, and the institutional investor divestiture provision. Bipartisan Policy Center
• FHFA Equitable Housing Finance Plans Repeal Takes Effect. FHFA’s final rule repealing the Fair Lending, Fair Housing, and Equitable Housing Finance Plans (12 CFR Part 1293) became effective March 9, 2026. The agency said the repeal eliminates duplicative oversight and aligns with Administration policies. The regulated entities (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHLBanks) are no longer required to submit equitable housing finance plans, though they remain subject to existing fair lending laws. Federal Register
• HUD’s Disparate Impact Rule Removal Pending Finalization. HUD has proposed rescinding its Fair Housing Act disparate impact regulation, with the comment period having closed in February 2026. The proposal aligns with Executive Order 14281, which directs federal agencies to eliminate disparate-impact liability to the maximum extent possible. Litigation is expected if the rule is finalized. Spencer Fane

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Treasury Yields Settle as Oil Reverses Spike; 10-Year at 4.11%. The 10-year Treasury initially rose on Monday’s overnight oil spike past $100/barrel but pulled back after President Trump told reporters the Iran war could end soon. The 10-year settled near 4.11%, while the 2-year held at ~3.56%. On Tuesday, yields were little changed as markets digested mixed signals from oil, geopolitics, and upcoming data. CNBC
• Oil Volatility Dominates Markets; WTI Pulled Back Below $90 After Hitting $119. West Texas Intermediate crude surged past $119 overnight Sunday on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears before falling back below $90 after Trump signaled a potential end to the Iran conflict. G7 energy ministers are meeting virtually to discuss a possible strategic reserves release. The oil shock has raised inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report. CNBC
• Fed’s March 17–18 Meeting in Focus; Rate Hold Expected. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout period ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing roughly 65% odds of a hold, down from 75% prior to the latest jobs report. The meeting will include updated economic projections and the dot plot. The fed funds rate currently stands at 3.50%–3.75%. Powell’s term expires May 15; the March meeting could be among his last as Chair. J.P. Morgan
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expansion Continues but Prices Paid Surge. The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.4 in February, the second consecutive month of expansion. However, the prices paid component surged 11.5 points to 70.5, the highest since June 2022, driven by steel, aluminum, and tariff-related cost increases. Employment remained in contraction at 48.8. ISM
• January CPI at 2.4%; Core PCE Still Sticky at 2.8%. The January CPI report showed annual headline inflation slowing to 2.4%, an improvement from 2.7% in late 2025 and closer to the Fed’s 2% target. However, the Core PCE price index remains near 2.8%, with housing and services costs proving persistent. Wednesday’s February CPI report could be pivotal for the March FOMC decision. Business Insurance / Federal Reserve

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• Walker & Dunlop Holds Investor Day, Unveils “Journey to ’30” Strategic Plan. Walker & Dunlop (NYSE: WD) hosted its 2026 Investor Day on March 10, presenting its five-year growth strategy. The company, ranked the #1 Fannie Mae DUS lender and #2 overall GSE lender for 2025, manages a $135.3B servicing portfolio and generated $40B in total transaction volume in 2024. Business Wire
• SL Green’s 11 Madison Avenue Achieves 100% Leased Occupancy. SL Green Realty Corp. secured a 10-year, 163,095-square-foot lease with AI company Clay at 11 Madison Avenue, bringing the building to 100% leased occupancy. Clay will occupy the entire 14th and 16th floors and part of the 15th floor. Connect CRE
• CRE Debt Market 2026: Capital Available, Lending Remains Selective. A Northmarq analysis of the 2026 CRE debt market found that life insurance companies are increasing allocations and actively seeking placements, while bank competition remains strong for stabilized assets. Multifamily and industrial spreads have tightened to 115–125 bps for low-leverage deals. However, underwriting discipline remains intact, and maturity extensions face scrutiny where performance is uncertain. Northmarq
• Ytech Secures $565M Construction Financing for 70-Story Brickell Condo Tower. Ytech obtained $565 million in construction financing from J.P. Morgan (senior) and Sculptor Real Estate (junior) for The Residences at 1428 Brickell, a 70-story, 195-unit luxury condo tower in Miami that is already more than 60% sold. JLL Capital Markets arranged the financing, which marks one of the largest condo project loans secured in the U.S. Connect CRE
• Manhattan Office Availability Rate Ticks Up for First Time in Two Years. Manhattan’s office availability rate increased slightly for the first time in two years, according to Commercial Observer. After a hot streak of leasing activity, the market is taking a breather. Meanwhile, data platform Snowflake signed an 83K SF lease at BXP’s 7 Times Square, and law firm Latham & Watkins expanded by 131K SF at 1285 Avenue of the Americas. Commercial Observer / The Real Deal
• Foundry Commercial Acquires Three Florida Senior Housing Facilities for $52M. Foundry Commercial completed the acquisition of three Florida assisted living and memory care facilities in Jacksonville, Titusville, and Plant City for a combined $52 million. Connect CRE

INDUSTRY NEWS

• UWM Raises 2026 Revenue Guidance, Touts AI-Driven Efficiency. UWM Holdings boosted its Q1 2026 revenue guidance to $800M–$900M and full-year 2026 to $3.5B–$4.5B. CEO Mat Ishbia said UWM’s AI investments, including the voice-enabled assistant MIA (projected to handle 12M+ calls in 2026), have made team members materially more efficient. UWM reported Q4 2025 origination volume of $49.6 billion, its highest since 2021. Business Wire
• Two Harbors Shareholder Vote Set for March 16 on UWM Merger. Two Harbors Investment Corp. shareholders will vote March 16 on UWM’s $1.3 billion all-stock acquisition. The deal would create the 8th-largest U.S. mortgage servicer with $400B+ in MSRs. BTIG analyst Eric Hagen remains confident the vote will pass but noted recent stock price volatility has reduced the odds compared to when the deal was announced. National Mortgage News
• Institutional Investors Becoming Net Sellers of Single-Family Homes. Parcl Labs research shows the largest single-family rental investors are now net sellers in every major metro, with Dallas, Philadelphia, and Houston seeing the most aggressive selling. FirstKey Homes leads in listings with an average 10% price cut off original list prices. Investors are pivoting capital to build-to-rent communities, where builder incentives and pricing offer better returns. CNBC
• NMHC Supports Build HUBS Act for Transit-Oriented Housing Development. NMHC endorsed the Build Housing, Unlock Benefits and Services Act (Build HUBS Act), introduced by Senators Blunt Rochester and Curtis, which would update DOT’s TIFIA and RRIF programs to allow housing providers access to transportation infrastructure financing for transit-oriented development. NMHC

Daily Dose of Real Estate is compiled for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.