Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 13

February’s data suggest a housing market where fundamentals are slowly improving, but sentiment remains a headwind. Inflation held steady at 2.4% year over year, while shelter costs—the largest CPI component—continued easing from the 8.2% peak in March 2023, rising 3.0% annually, down from 3.2% in December. Rent of primary residence increased just 0.1% for the month, the smallest gain since January 2021. Baby steps.

Existing-home sales rebounded 1.7% in February to a 4.09 million annualized pace, beating expectations, while NAR’s Affordability Index rose to 117.6, its best reading since March 2022. Median prices increased just 0.3% year over year, and first-time buyers accounted for 34% of transactions—suggesting conditions are better than a year ago.

Yet sales remain roughly one million below pre-pandemic norms despite six million more jobs. The gap reflects not only affordability pressures but also confidence. Geopolitical tensions, oil price swings, market volatility, a softer labor market, and shifting rate signals continue to weigh on sentiment. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.29% on March 12, reversing much of the prior week’s decline.

On the commercial side, distress remains concentrated. CMBS office delinquencies reached a record 12.34% in January, with roughly $25 billion in securitized loans past maturity. The maturity wall is easing—MBA estimates $875 billion in CRE maturities in 2026, down 9% from last year—but payoff rates remain only 50–55%, leaving many borrowers unable to refinance.

Capital is not the constraint. The issue is not a lack of money to lend. Lenders have plenty of capital and are actively looking to deploy it. But they are being picky about where it goes, favoring well-located properties with strong tenants and experienced borrowers while passing on riskier deals. In short, the capital is there; it is just not available to everyone.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Mortgage rates jump: Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed hit 6.29% on 3/12; Freddie Mac’s weekly average rose 11 bps to 6.11%, highest in a month, amid oil-driven inflation fears.
  • February CPI in line at 2.4% year-over-year, but shelter and food costs remain sticky; full impact of surging oil prices from the Iran conflict not yet reflected.
  • FOMC meets March 17–18: Markets pricing near-100% odds the Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%; traders see next cut no sooner than September.
  • Existing-home sales rose 1.7% m/m in February to a 4.09M SAAR; affordability improved for the eighth consecutive month to its best level since March 2022.
  • Inventory up but still constrained: 1.29M units (3.8 months’ supply); Realtor.com data shows active listings up 7.9% y/y but still 17% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • MBA: Mortgage applications surged 11% for the week ending Feb. 27; purchase apps up 6.1% w/w and 10% y/y as rates hovered near 3-year lows before the latest spike.
  • Fed Board of Governors to Hold Open Meeting March 19 on Capital Proposals: Board will vote on revised Basel III rules that, among other changes, recalibrating capital treatment of mortgage origination and servicing to reverse the regulatory dynamics that pushed large banks out of much of the mortgage industry
  • February payrolls shocked with a loss of 92,000 jobs; unemployment edged to 4.4%; December revised down to a loss of 17,000, painting a weaker labor backdrop.
  • CMBS office delinquency hit a record 12.34% in January (Trepp); ~$25B in CMBS loans are past maturity without resolution; MBA pegs 2026 CRE maturities at $875B.
  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act released: bipartisan bill combines House and Senate legislation addressing investor restrictions, FHA modernization, and federal housing oversight.
  • Walker & Dunlop unveils “Journey to ’30” five-year plan at Investor Day; Fannie/Freddie combined 2026 lending caps raised 20%+ to $176B.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

MORTGAGE MARKETS

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Fed Board of Governors to Hold Open Meeting March 19 on Capital Proposals The Board will vote on revised Basel III and G-SIB surcharge rules that, among other changes, recalibrate capital treatment of mortgage origination and servicing to reverse the regulatory dynamics that pushed those activities out of large banks and into nonbank lenders. If adopted, it would be the most significant regulatory opening for big banks to reenter the mortgage market in over a decade. https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20260319open.htm
  • 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Released Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren released the bipartisan bill March 2, combining House and Senate legislation. Key provisions: restrictions on large institutional investors, FHA manufactured housing loan limit increases, CFPB study on small-dollar mortgage originator compensation, annual oversight testimony from HUD/FHA/FHFA/Ginnie Mae/USDA heads, and FHA monthly capital-ratio reporting. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/
  • FHFA Finalizes Repeal of Equitable Housing Finance Plans Rule The final rule repealing Part 1293 became effective March 9. FHFA said the repeal eliminates duplicative oversight with HUD and CFPB and aligns with the administration’s deregulatory priorities. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/02/06/2026-02325/fair-lending-fair-housing-and-equitable-housing-finance-plans
  • FOMC Meets March 17–18; Hold Expected Markets price near-100% odds of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. January minutes showed several members open to future cuts if inflation cooperates, while others suggested rate hikes could be appropriate. Traders see the next cut no sooner than September (~43% chance of a second cut by year-end). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260128.htm

ECONOMIC NEWS

  • February CPI: Headline at 2.4% Y/Y, In Line with Forecasts CPI-U rose 0.3% m/m; shelter (+0.2% m/m) was again the largest contributor but continues its steady descent. Shelter inflation came in at 3.0% y/y pace – down from 3.2% in December 2025 and sharply below the cycle peak of ~8.2% y/y reached in March 2023 – the dominant driver of inflation. Rent of primary residence rose just 0.1% m/m, the smallest monthly gain since January 2021. Core CPI held at 2.8% y/y. The data predates Iran-driven oil surges, so energy effects will flow into coming months’ readings. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
  • Food-at-Home Inflation Reaccelerating Wolf Street analysis of the February CPI shows the food-at-home index rose 0.44% m/m (5.4% annualized) and 2.45% y/y, the highest since September. Beef and veal spiked 1.5% m/m (+14.4% y/y) as the U.S. cattle herd sits at a multi-decade low. Ground beef averaged $6.74/lb, up 73% from January 2020. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/11/food-inflation-in-america/
  • February Payrolls Fell 92,000; Unemployment Rose to 4.4% The third monthly decline in five months, far below +50K consensus. Healthcare lost 28,000 (Kaiser strike), construction shed 11,000 (weather), federal government fell 10,000 (down 330K/11% since Oct. 2024 peak). December revised down 65K to −17K. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y, both above estimates. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Rose to 4.23% on March 12 The benchmark hit a one-month high as oil prices resumed rallying despite the IEA’s largest-ever reserve release (400M barrels). The tug-of-war between flight-to-safety demand and energy-driven inflation fears continues. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
  • Fed’s Goolsbee: Hold on Cuts as Inflation “Not Good Enough” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the inflation trajectory doesn’t justify further cuts, reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see stance ahead of next week’s meeting. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/
  • St. Louis Fed: Dual Mandate in Conflict A new research piece highlights tension between still-elevated inflation (PCE at 2.9% in 2025) and rising unemployment (4.4%). FOMC projections for year-end fed funds range from 2.13% to 3.88%, reflecting deep disagreement. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/mar/dual-mandate-balancing-current-tensions-inflation-employment

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

INDUSTRY NEWS

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice. All information is sourced from publicly available data and publications as cited. Verify all information independently before making any decisions.

Get Updates

Insights Delivered to Your Inbox

REQUEST EARLY ACCESS

AI For Real Estate Professionals