The biggest story this week isn’t a single headline — it’s the convergence of three policy threads that could reshape mortgage origination. On Friday, Trump signed the “Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit” executive order, directing CFPB and banking regulators to move away from Dodd-Frank’s prescriptive, process-oriented compliance regime toward substantive underwriting evaluation — from “did you check every box” to “did you make a reasonable lending decision.” Coming on the heels of Vice Chair Bowman’s Basel III proposals to reduce punitive capital treatment for bank mortgage holdings, this is the most ambitious deregulatory push for mortgage finance since Dodd-Frank. The order explicitly benefits bank balance-sheet lenders and community institutions; nonbanks and IMBs get nothing, raising real questions about whether a two-tier regulatory system is being constructed by design.
The Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 89-10, but its path forward is murky. The House has signaled the investor ban needs reworking, the SAVE America Act (voting) is consuming floor time, a second reconciliation bill focused on defense and fraud prevention is forming, and the Iran conflict is compressing congressional bandwidth for anything that isn’t mandatory spending or national security. We see no clear path for standalone affordability legislation this year. On the Fed, Warsh’s confirmation remains stuck behind Tillis’s blockade, and it is increasingly likely Powell stays on past his May 15 term expiration while the Senate works through the politics. Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will be the first where the committee must formally price in the Iran oil shock, and Powell’s press conference Wednesday may be one of his last consequential appearances as Chair.
Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Mortgage rates surge to 6.41%, highest since September 2025. The Mortgage News Daily index posted its worst 3-day stretch since April 2025 as the Iran conflict drives bond market weakness and inflation fears.
- Senate passes landmark housing bill 89-10. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act — the largest housing package in decades — clears the Senate with bipartisan support but faces House hurdles over its institutional investor ban.
- Trump signs executive order to expand mortgage credit access. The “Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit” EO directs CFPB and banking regulators to streamline Dodd-Frank-era mortgage rules, ease HMDA reporting, and support community bank lending.
- FOMC meeting begins tomorrow (March 17-18). Markets are pricing in a 99% probability of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%. This is the first meeting where the Fed must formally incorporate Iran conflict impacts and the updated dot plot.
- February CPI holds steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Core CPI came in at 2.5%, both in line with expectations. Rent posted its smallest monthly gain since January 2021. Numbers predate the Iran oil shock.
- Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to 4.09 million SAAR.Median price hit $398,000 (+0.3% YoY), marking 32 consecutive months of annual price gains. Affordability index at highest since March 2022.
- MBA purchase applications jumped 7.8% for the week ending March 6. Total applications up 3.2%, with purchase demand running 11% above year-ago levels even as rates ticked higher.
- Fitch flags rising non-QM delinquencies as “collateral deterioration.”The 30-day delinquency rate climbed to 7.26% from 5.9% in November, with 2023 vintages the most stressed. Actual losses remain minimal relative to default expectations.
- CRE deal volume opens 2026 sluggishly. January transaction volume fell 15% year-over-year to $20.8 billion, the lowest sale count since April 2024, per Moody’s data.
- Warsh Fed Chair nomination stalls in Senate. Sen. Thom Tillis continues to block all Fed nominees on the Banking Committee pending resolution of the DOJ investigation into Chair Powell.
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
Existing Home Sales Rose 1.7% in February, Recovering From January’s Plunge. Sales reached a SAAR of 4.09 million, above the downwardly revised January figure of 4.02 million and beating consensus of 3.89 million. Median price was $398,000 (+0.3% YoY) — the 32nd consecutive month of annual gains. Inventory rose 2.4% MoM to 1.29 million units (3.8 months’ supply). First-time buyers represented 34% of sales, up from 31% in January.https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-february
NAR Affordability Index Hits Highest Level Since March 2022. The index rose to 117.6 in February, the eighth straight monthly improvement. Yun noted wage growth now outpaces home-price appreciation by nearly four percentage points, but cautioned that transaction volume remains roughly one million units below pre-pandemic norms.https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-february
Housing Inventory Growth Slowing Sharply Year-Over-Year. Active listings rose to 697,251 for the week ending March 13, up just 6.35% YoY — down from the 33% peak growth rate in 2025. New listings remain negative YoY. Median time on market was 47 days in February, up from 42 a year ago.https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-6-41-volatility/
2025 Was the Worst Year for Total Home Sales in 14 Years. Realtor.com analysis found combined new and existing sales were the weakest since 2011. A 3% annual decline in the West tipped national growth negative despite slight improvements in other regions.https://www.inman.com/2026/03/10/existing-home-sales-see-february-improvement-after-tough-january/
NAHB Builder Sentiment (March HMI) Due Today. February’s reading fell to 36, the 22nd consecutive month below 50. Price-cutting prevalence eased to 36% of builders from 40% in January; 65% continue offering sales incentives. https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/02/builder-sentiment-edges-lower-on-affordability-concerns
MORTGAGE MARKETS
Mortgage Rates Hit 6.41%, Highest Since September 2025. The MND index jumped from 6.09% Tuesday to 6.41% Friday — the worst 3-day stretch since early April 2025. The 15-year hit 6.01%. MND’s Graham noted structural MBS dynamics amplify volatility as rates pass through the 6.25% threshold. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.278%.https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-Year Average Up to 6.11%. The weekly survey for the period ending March 12 showed the largest increase since April 2025. Freddie Mac’s Khater noted buyers are still responding to rates in this range, pointing to rising purchase applications and February’s existing home sales gain. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
MBA: Applications Up 3.2%, Driven by 7.8% Jump in Purchase Activity.For the week ending March 6, purchase apps were 11% above year-ago levels. Refi activity flat (+0.5% WoW) but 81% higher YoY. Refi share fell to 57.8%. Average 30-year conforming contract rate rose to 6.19% from 6.09%.https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/03/11/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
Iran Conflict Reverses 2026’s Low-Rate Story. Rates had dipped below 6% in late February for the first time since 2022. U.S.-Israel military operations beginning Feb. 28 pushed oil above $100/barrel and the 10-year from 3.96% to 4.28%. Mortgage spreads also worsened Friday. At 2023’s worst spread levels, today’s rates would exceed 7.5%.https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-6-41-volatility/
Fitch Flags Rising Non-QM Delinquencies in Q1 Report. The 30-day delinquency rate for non-QM RMBS climbed to 7.26% as of February, up from ~5.9% in November. Serious delinquencies rose from 2.9% to 3.61%. The 2023 vintage is the most challenged (30-day near 11%, 90-day near 6%). Fitch described the trend as “continued collateral deterioration across all NQM vintages” but noted actual losses remain minimal against a 17.76% default expectation for the 2025 vintage.https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fitch-flags-mounting-non-qm-delinquencies-in-sign-of-collateral-deterioration/
REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
Trump Signs EO on “Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit.” Signed March 13, the order directs CFPB to streamline Dodd-Frank-era mortgage rules — including QM/ATR requirements and HMDA reporting — to reduce compliance burdens on community banks and credit unions. It calls on banking regulators to shift supervisory guidance toward prudent underwriting over process-oriented enforcement, support construction lending, and modernize appraisal and digital mortgage processes. The order also directs FHFA to refocus FHLB programs on entry-level and owner-occupied housing and requires a 120-day report on housing finance market efficiency. Separately, FHFA and the Fed are directed to consider authorizing FHLB intermediate access to the discount window.https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/03/promoting-access-to-mortgage-credit/
Senate Passes 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, 89-10. The largest housing affordability bill in decades includes ~40 provisions to cut regulatory barriers, expand manufactured housing, and boost supply. Key: bans institutional investors owning 350+ single-family homes from additional purchases (7-year sell requirement for build-to-rent exceptions), raises bank public welfare investment cap from 15% to 20%, allows CDBG funding for new affordable construction, and temporarily prohibits a Fed CBDC through 2030. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/housing-bill-affordability-investor-ban.html
House Signals Senate Housing Bill Needs Negotiations. Majority Leader Scalise told House Republicans the Senate version will likely bog down over the investor ban. NAHB, MBA, and the National Housing Conference warned the 7-year disposal requirement could eliminate BTR production and remove hundreds of thousands of units.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/housing-affordability-2026-election.html
FOMC Meeting Begins Tomorrow (March 17-18). Quarterly projection meeting with updated dot plot and SEP. CME FedWatch: 99% probability of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%. First meeting incorporating the Iran oil shock, global tariffs, and Powell-to-Warsh transition. Markets price the next cut for September. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-march.htm
Warsh Fed Chair Nomination Stalled by Tillis. Sen. Tillis (R-NC) continues blocking all Fed nominees on Banking Committee until the DOJ resolves its investigation into Powell’s testimony on the Fed’s $2.5B headquarters renovation. Without Tillis, the committee lacks votes to advance. Powell’s term expires May 15. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/fed-kevin-warsh-trump-thom-tillis-senate.html
NAR Pending Home Sales Index for February Releases Tomorrow (March 17). The release comes as market participants assess whether spring buying momentum can sustain amid rising rates and geopolitical uncertainty.https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
ECONOMIC NEWS
February CPI: 2.4% YoY, Unchanged From January. Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM; core rose 0.2% (2.5% annual — lowest since March 2021). Rent +0.1%, smallest monthly gain since January 2021. Food +0.4% (+3.1% YoY). Apparel +1.3%, largest monthly jump since September 2018. All figures predate the Iran oil shock. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Economists Warn Iran Oil Shock Could Push CPI to 3.5% by Year-End. If the conflict persists, CNBC estimates headline CPI could reach 2.6%-2.9% in March and 3.5% by December. Oil briefly topped $119/barrel on March 9. Moody’s Zandi: inflation “feels uncomfortably and persistently high” even before Middle East fallout. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-february-2026-breakdown.html
Government Shutdown Data Gaps Cloud Inflation Picture. BLS data from December 2025 through April 2026 is affected by last fall’s 43-day shutdown. Economists estimate the carry-forward methodology imparts a ~0.3pp downward bias, putting “true” inflation closer to 2.7%.https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-february-2026
10-Year Treasury Testing Upper End of 2026 Range. The benchmark closed Friday at 4.278%, nearing its yearly high. Since September 2025, the 10-year has stayed below 4.30%. A sustained break would signal a materially different rate environment for housing.https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-rates-6-41-volatility/
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)
CRE Transaction Volume Opens 2026 at Lowest Since April 2024.January deal volume: $20.8B across core five sectors, down 15% YoY per Moody’s/CNBC. Middle-market volume hit hardest by tighter credit and persistent bid-ask spreads. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/blackstone-commercial-real-estate.html
Blackstone Rebalancing BREIT, Among January’s Largest Sellers.Notable sales: $424.4M mixed-use in Queens to TPG, $69M retail center near Chicago. Rotating into data centers, apartments, and logistics. BXMT loan originations up 50% in January 2026 vs. year-ago.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/blackstone-commercial-real-estate.html
Government Buying Warehouses for ICE Detention. GSA and ICE bypassing leases and purchasing outright: $102.4M in Williamsport, MD, and $70M in Arizona. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/blackstone-commercial-real-estate.html
BXMT: CRE Capital Markets “Highly Liquid.” CMBS issuance up 40% YoY, construction starts still down, asset values rising. 85% of 2025 BXMT loans in multifamily, industrial, bank loan portfolios, and net-lease.https://commercialobserver.com/2026/02/blackstone-mortgage-trust-fourth-quarter-earnings/
Massachusetts Rent Control Study: $300B in Property Value Losses.Greater Boston Real Estate Board/Tufts study estimated a statewide cap on annual rent increases at the rate of inflation could cost $300B in property value declines over 10 years. https://www.connectcre.com/stories/boston-new-england-people-and-company-news-week-of-march-13-2026/
INDUSTRY NEWS
Esquire Financial to Acquire Signature Bancorporation for $348M. All-stock deal creates ~$4.8B asset entity, combining Esquire’s national verticals with Signature’s Chicago commercial banking franchise.https://www.connectcre.com/
Bilt Rewards Acquires Sion for $30M. Renter rewards platform acquired the commission management platform used by 8,000+ travel advisors.https://www.connectcre.com/stories/new-york-people-and-company-news-week-of-march-13-2026/
Rebar Closes $14M Series A for Vertical AI in Building Trades. Led by Prudence, focused on HVAC, electrical, and plumbing.https://www.connectcre.com/stories/new-york-people-and-company-news-week-of-march-13-2026/
Blackstone Acquires Champions Group, Residential Home Services Platform. ~1,800 field technicians, 150K active members. Expected close H1 2026. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BX/
Walker & Dunlop Unveils “Journey to ’30” Five-Year Strategic Plan.Presented at Investor Day on March 10.https://www.businesswire.com/newsroom/industry/construction-property/commercial-real-estate
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice.