Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 17

The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today with a rate hold all but certain, but the dot plot and Powell’s presser Wednesday will matter more than the decision itself. The bond market has already moved on: last week’s selloff pushed the 10-year Treasury to 4.28% and the 30-year to 4.90%, dragging the MND 30-year mortgage rate to 6.41% on Friday — its highest since September — before Monday’s modest pullback to 6.36%. Across the curve, yields now signal that rate cuts in 2026 are essentially off the table. Core PCE at 3.1%, oil above $100, and $651 billion in Treasury auctions in a single week did the damage. Meanwhile, the Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 89–10 — the biggest federal housing package in decades — but the bill faces a House more interested in the SAVE America Act and a president who reportedly told leadership as much. Trump signed two housing executive orders Friday targeting community bank mortgage regulation and construction permitting barriers, with HUD pegging regulatory costs at $94,000 per new single-family home.

On the ground, the housing market remains stuck between improving affordability metrics and persistent inertia. Existing-home sales ticked up 1.7% in February to 4.09 million SAAR, with NAR’s Affordability Index at its highest since March 2022, but volume is still a million transactions below pre-pandemic norms despite 6 million more jobs. Lennar’s Q1 earnings laid bare what it takes to actually move homes: average selling price cut to $374,000 — a 2017 level — with 14% of sale price going to incentives and gross margins compressed to 15.2%. Builder confidence at 38 marks the 23rd straight negative month. In CRE, the Savills-Eastdil deal ($1.1 billion) reshapes the brokerage landscape, CMBS/CLO issuance is running 15% ahead of last year, and MBA forecasts CRE originations up 27% to $805 billion — though rising long-term rates from the oil shock could temper that outlook.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• FOMC meeting begins today; rate hold near-certain at 3.50–3.75%. Markets watching dot plot and Powell press conference for 2026 rate-cut signals amid oil-shock inflation fears.
• Mortgage rates pull back modestly from 7-month highs. MND 30-year fixed at 6.36%, down 5 bps, as oil prices fall 5%+ Monday and MBS rally. Friday’s spike to 6.41% was the highest since September 2025.
• Senate passes 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 89–10. Largest federal housing bill in decades now faces uncertain House path and a White House focused on the SAVE America Act.
• Trump signs two housing executive orders targeting mortgage regulation and construction barriers. HUD vows to eliminate regulatory burdens that add ~$94K to new home prices.
• NAHB builder confidence edges up to 38 in March. 23rd consecutive month below 50; 37% of builders cutting prices, 64% offering incentives.
• Existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February to 4.09M SAAR. Affordability Index at highest since March 2022; median price $398,000, up 0.3% YoY.
• Lennar cuts avg. selling price 24% from peak to $374K (2017 levels). Q1 revenue down 13% YoY; gross margin compressed to 15.2% from 26.9% in Q1 2022 as incentives hit 14% of sale price.
• NAR Pending Home Sales Index for February releases today (10 a.m. ET). A leading indicator of spring buying season momentum.
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 originations hit 1.44M, highest since Q3 2022. Refis accounted for 40% of volume; 5.4M borrowers now refi-eligible.
• Bond market prices out 2026 rate cuts. The 1-year Treasury yield crossed above the effective fed funds rate for the first time since November 2023. The government sold $651B in Treasuries last week into rising yields.
• Savills acquires Eastdil Secured for $1.1B. Creates second-largest advisory platform for $100M+ CRE transactions globally.
• Oil tops $106/bbl as Strait of Hormuz transit near-halted. IEA projects global supply drop of 8 mb/d in March; Brent up 40%+ since war began Feb. 28.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Existing-Home Sales Rose 1.7% in February to 4.09M SAAR. Month-over-month gains in the Midwest, South, and West; the Northeast declined. Year-over-year, sales rose only in the South. Median price: $398,000 (+0.3% YoY), the 32nd consecutive month of annual price gains. Inventory: 1.29M units (3.8-month supply), up 2.4% MoM and 4.9% YoY. First-time buyers accounted for 34% of sales. NAR’s Affordability Index rose to 117.6, its highest since March 2022. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-february
• NAR Pending Home Sales Index for February Due Today. The leading indicator of contract signings releases at 10 a.m. ET. January’s reading showed a 0.8% MoM decline. Today’s number will offer the earliest read on whether the February rate dip below 6% translated into spring buying activity. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
• NAHB Builder Confidence Inches Up to 38 in March. HMI rose one point, beating forecasts of 37 but marking the 23rd straight month below 50. All three sub-indices gained: current sales at 42, future sales expectations at 49, and buyer traffic at 27. 37% of builders cut prices (avg. reduction 6%); 64% offered incentives. NAHB Chairman Bill Owens cited elevated land, labor, and construction costs as persistent headwinds. All survey responses were collected after the Iran conflict started. https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/03/builder-sentiment-inches-higher-but-affordability-concerns-persist
• Cotality: National Home Price Growth Slowed to 0.7% YoY in January. The Midwest leads with 3.56% avg. growth (IL +4.91%, WI +4.78%). Eleven states posted negative annual price growth, led by Florida (−2.36%) and Colorado (−1.31%). Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp described a “two-speed” market where affordable Midwest/Northeast metros outperform overheated Sunbelt and Western markets.https://www.cotality.com/insights/articles/us-home-price-insights-march-2026
• Realtor.com: Housing Supply Gap Widened by 4M+ Homes in 2025. New construction could not keep pace with demand despite elevated completions. Chief Economist Danielle Hale noted the market is still digging out of more than a decade of underbuilding. https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/march-2026-housing-market-forecast-140000305.html
• Lennar Cuts Avg. Selling Price to 2017 Level to Move Homes. In Q1, the nation’s second-largest builder reported avg. selling price of $374,000, down 8.3% YoY and 24% from the Q3 2022 peak. Deliveries rose 37% from Q1 2021 even as existing-home sales have plunged. Gross margin on home sales compressed to 15.2% (from 26.9% in Q1 2022); incentives including rate buydowns ran at 14% of sale price. CEO Stuart Miller: “We are adapting to market conditions as they are and not waiting for the market to bounce back.” Construction costs fell 12% over two years. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/13/what-it-takes-to-sell-homes-in-this-market-lennar-cuts-average-selling-price-to-2017-level/

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs. Per Mortgage News Daily (3/16), the 30-year fixed fell 5 bps to 6.36%; 15-year fixed dropped 6 bps to 5.95%. MBS rallied as oil prices fell 5%+ on de-escalation hopes. The 10-year Treasury yield fell ~6 bps to 4.22%. Freddie Mac’s weekly average (3/12): 30-year at 6.11%, up 11 bps WoW. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• Last Week Was Rough for Treasuries and Mortgages. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.28% and the 30-year to 4.90% by Friday as inflation fears spread (core PCE hit 3.1%, worst in two years) and deficit concerns mounted over war financing costs. The 1-year yield crossed above the effective fed funds rate for the first time since November 2023, signaling the bond market has moved rate cuts essentially off the table for 2026. The MND 30-year mortgage rate spiked to 6.41% on Friday, its highest since September 2025, before Monday’s pullback. The government sold $651B in Treasury securities across nine auctions during the week.https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/14/treasury-yields-jump-10-year-to-4-28-30-year-to-4-90-mortgage-rates-spike-to-6-41-on-inflation-deficit-fears/
• MBA: Mortgage Applications Up 3.2% for Week Ending March 6. Purchase apps surged 7.8% WoW (+10% YoY); FHA purchase apps rose 11%+. Refi activity was roughly flat (+0.5%) but 81% higher than year-ago levels. MBA Chief Economist Fratantoni noted 30-year conforming rates climbed to 6.19% amid Middle East volatility, ending a brief window below 6%. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/03/11/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 2025 Originations Hit 3.5-Year High. Total originations reached an estimated 1.44M in Q4, the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022. Refis accounted for nearly 40% of lending. Servicer retention hit an 8-year high, with 1-in-3 refi borrowers staying with their servicer. February’s rate dip expanded the refi-eligible population to 5.4M, the largest since early 2022. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/q4-mortgage-originations-refinance-surge/
• ICE: Full-Year 2025 Equity Withdrawals Hit $205B. Homeowners withdrew $52B in Q4 alone. Second-lien volume reached $116B for the full year, the highest since 2007. Homeowners hold ~$17T in total equity, with ~$11T tappable. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/q4-mortgage-originations-refinance-surge/
• Conforming Loan Limit for 2026: $832,750. FHFA’s increased limit continues to support higher-balance borrowers in most markets. Current avg. jumbo 30-year rate: 6.58% per MND.https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Senate Passes 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, 89–10. The Scott-Warren legislation is the most sweeping federal housing package in decades. Key provisions: streamlined environmental reviews, modernized manufactured housing rules (removing chassis requirement could save $5K–10K per unit), expanded LIHTC, reformed HUD programs, and a ban on institutional investors owning 350+ single-family homes from acquiring more. The House passed its own version (390–9) in February. Reconciliation must bridge differences including the investor ban scope, a CBDC ban provision, and community bank deregulation language.https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/us-senate-passes-chairman-scotts-historic-housing-affordability-legislation
• Housing Bill Faces Uncertain House Path; White House Eyes SAVE Act. House Speaker Johnson told GOP leaders that Trump wants the SAVE America Act prioritized. The housing bill may stall unless attached to a must-pass vehicle or allowed a standalone vote. Trump has signaled he won’t sign other legislation until the SAVE Act passes, though a White House spokesman denied reports that Trump dismissed the housing bill.https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-major-housing-affordability-bill-warren-scott-rcna263046
• ROAD Act’s Build-to-Rent Provisions Draw Industry Pushback. MBA joined a broad coalition urging changes to the bill’s restrictions on build-to-rent developments, which critics say could constrain housing supply in a market already short 4M+ homes. https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2026/march/mba-newslink-wednesday-march-11-2026/
• FOMC Two-Day Meeting Begins Today. Decision and dot plot release Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET; Powell press conference at 2:30. CME FedWatch shows 95%+ probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. The March meeting features updated economic projections. Two January dissenters (Miran, Waller) preferred cuts. The dot plot will signal whether the Committee still sees room for cuts in H2 2026. Powell’s term expires May 15; Kevin Warsh is the nominated successor. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/march-fed-meeting-2026-live-updates-and-commentary
• Bipartisan Policy Center Releases Detailed ROAD Act Explainer. BPC’s section-by-section analysis covers all 18 sections from the prior House and Senate bills plus 26+ new provisions incorporating previously introduced bipartisan legislation. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-21st-century-road-to-housing-act/
• Trump Signs Two Housing Executive Orders. “Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit” targets post-crisis regulations that increased compliance costs for community bank mortgage lending; FHFA Director Pulte said the orders will “unleash community banks to give mortgages again.” “Removing Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Home Construction” directs agencies to strip permitting and mandate layers that restrict development. HUD Secretary Turner said regulatory costs add ~$94,000 to the price of a new single-family home, and green energy mandates add $30,000+ in construction costs. HUD will also align Opportunity Zone incentives with single-family development. MBA, NAHB, and CHLA welcomed the orders. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/new-trump-executive-orders-target-regulatory-burdens-in-housing-affordability-push/

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Oil Tops $106/bbl as Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed. Brent crude rose 40%+ since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began Feb. 28. Daily strait transits have fallen from 138 to fewer than 5 ships. The IEA projects global oil supply will drop 8 mb/d in March, with ~3 mb/d of Gulf refining capacity shut. Consumer gas prices have risen sharply; California exceeded $5/gallon. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/16/oil-prices-keep-rising-as-trump-seeks-coalition-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz
• Oil Prices Ease Monday on De-Escalation Hopes. After topping $106, prices pulled back early Monday as Trump signaled willingness to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort commercial shipping. Bond markets responded positively; the 10-year Treasury yield fell ~6 bps. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03162026
• Core PCE Inflation Hit 3.1% in January, Worst in Two Years. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure blew past the 2% target, driven by core services. The data does not yet reflect the surge in energy prices from the Iran conflict, suggesting further upward pressure in coming months. https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/14/treasury-yields-jump-10-year-to-4-28-30-year-to-4-90-mortgage-rates-spike-to-6-41-on-inflation-deficit-fears/
• IMF Warns of Inflationary Risk From Prolonged Conflict. Managing Director Georgieva said the war is testing global economic resilience. Capital Economics estimates Brent could fall to $65/bbl if the conflict ends quickly but projects U.S. inflation peaking around 3% YoY in the extended scenario. Former Treasury Secretary Yellen said the conflict puts the Fed “even more on hold.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/the-tell-tale-signs-how-bad-has-the-iran-war-hit-the-global-economy
• February Jobs Report: Payrolls Fell 92,000; Unemployment Rose to 4.4%. The weak print has shifted the debate from “higher for longer” toward how long the Fed can wait. The data adds to the case for eventual cuts but is unlikely to force action at this week’s meeting given persistent inflation concerns.https://www.ebc.com/forex/when-will-the-fed-lower-interest-rates-next-meeting-march-18
• Five-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Has Moved Notably Higher Since Late February. Treasury and TIPS markets signal investors expect energy-driven price pressures to feed through to broader inflation. Rising long-term yields translate directly into higher borrowing costs for multifamily developers and prospective homebuyers alike.https://www.chandan.com/post/rental-housing-weekly-briefing-march-16-20-2026

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• Savills Acquires Eastdil Secured for $1.1B Enterprise Value. The deal creates the second-largest advisory platform for $100M+ CRE transactions. Eastdil CEO Roy March moves to executive chairman; D. Michael Van Konynenburg becomes CEO. The acquisition bolsters Savills’ U.S. investment banking presence and gives Eastdil a platform for Asia-Pacific expansion. Guggenheim and Temasek exit their 2019 investment.https://www.savills.us/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/388812/savills-announces-acquisition-of-eastdil-secured-llc
• CRE Debt Markets Funded but Selective in 2026. Life companies are increasing allocations and expanding avg. loan sizes. Bank spreads for low-leverage multifamily and industrial have tightened to 115–125 bps. Apartments, industrial, and grocery-anchored retail draw the strongest lender interest. Five- and seven-year structures dominate despite attractive long-term rates. https://www.northmarq.com/insights/research/commercial-real-estate-debt-market-outlook-2026-capital-available-lending-remains
• YTD 2026 Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLO Issuance: $15.4B. That’s a 15% increase from $13.3B in the same period of 2025. Notable deals include BrightSpire’s $857M CRE CLO (95% multifamily), BMO’s $632M conduit, and a $630M SASB for a 13-property apartment portfolio.https://www.crefc.org/cre/cre/content/News/news-archive.aspx
• MBA CREF Forecast: CRE Originations to Rise 27% to $805B in 2026. The outlook reflects improved capital availability and narrowing bid-ask spreads, though rising long-term rates from the oil shock could temper the forecast. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/research-and-economics
• Higher Long-Term Rates Carry Dual Impact for Rental Housing. Rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for multifamily owners and developers while simultaneously dampening home-purchase activity, potentially strengthening rental demand and tightening occupancy if elevated rates persist through spring.https://www.chandan.com/post/rental-housing-weekly-briefing-march-16-20-2026
• Senate Housing Bill Threatens Build-to-Rent Industry. The ROAD Act’s institutional investor restrictions could constrain single-family rental development, according to industry groups. The ban covers any entity controlling 350+ single-family homes, with limited exceptions. Latham & Watkins analysis notes the exceptions’ final form will have enormous practical implications. https://www.lw.com/en/insights/senate-advances-21st-century-road-to-housing-act

INDUSTRY NEWS

• Savills-Eastdil Deal Reshapes CRE Brokerage Landscape. The $1.1B acquisition is the largest CRE services deal in years, significantly closing the gap between Savills and industry leaders like CBRE and JLL. Since 2011, Eastdil has advised on 9,800+ transactions totaling $3T. https://commercialobserver.com/2026/03/savills-acquisition-eastdil-secured/
• CREFC Responds to Warsh Fed Chair Nomination. In a statement, President Lisa Pendergast emphasized that strong, transparent Fed leadership is essential for CRE finance market stability and capital availability. The industry group said it looks forward to engaging with Warsh through the confirmation process.https://www.crefc.org/cre/cre/content/News/news-archive.aspx
• ICE: Property Insurance Costs Rose 6.6% in 2025 but Growth Rate Slowing. Average annual payments hit a record high, though the growth rate was the slowest since 2020. Q4 marked the first quarterly decline since ICE began tracking monthly data. Borrowers with the highest insurance burdens are at least 22% more likely to be delinquent. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/q4-mortgage-originations-refinance-surge/
• NAR Launches “More Than Opening Doors” Consumer Campaign. The initiative, developed with agency Uncommon, aims to reposition the REALTOR® brand around expertise and professionalism.https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/23/3241272/0/en/

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