Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 30

Light weekend for news about or impacting mortgage and real estate. Just don’t count the Dow entering correction territory, or the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest yield since July, mortgage rates reaching an 8-month high, oil crossing $100, and markets repricing to coin-flip odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end – yeah, just super. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed closed Friday at 6.64%, Freddie Mac’s weekly average jumped 16 bps to 6.38%, and Zillow’s refi rate is knocking on 7%. The MBA reported back-to-back double-digit weekly declines in application volume. Trump extended his Iran strike deadline to April 6, which markets treated as a non-event before resuming the sell-off. Redfin, meanwhile, reported that 14% of home-sale agreements fell through in February — a record for the month — as buyers with more inventory and more leverage decided they could afford to walk away.

On the policy side, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is stuck in the space between the Senate and the House, and new reporting suggests Warren’s aggressive defense of the Senate bill — including discouraging stakeholders from publicly calling for a conference committee — is part of the problem. French Hill isn’t taking the Senate version as-is, Waters has formally called for a conference, and the MBA has withdrawn support over the institutional investor mandate and FHA multifamily loan limit cuts. FHFA released its Q4 2025 foreclosure prevention report showing forbearance plans nearly doubled and delinquency rates ticked up, and AEI published a sobering analysis of the federal government’s fiscal position — net negative $41.7 trillion and deteriorating. The February PCE release, originally scheduled for March 27, has been pushed to April 9, leaving a hole in the inflation data at exactly the moment everyone needs it most.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mortgage rates hit an 8-month high. Mortgage News Daily’s top-tier 30-year fixed reached 6.64% on Friday, March 27, as the Iran conflict continued to push Treasury yields higher.
• The Dow entered correction territory Friday, falling more than 10% from its all-time high. The S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since 2022.
• 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.46% on Friday, highest since July 2025, up roughly 50 bps since the start of the Iran conflict. Markets now price nearly 50% odds of a Fed rate hike by December.
• Brent crude topped $106/barrel on Friday; WTI crossed $100. Iran turned back two China-owned container vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. Chevron CEO called the physical supply effects “very real.”
• Trump extended the deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, but the Pentagon is reportedly considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region.
• Redfin: 14% of home-sale agreements fell through in February — a record for the month. More than 42,000 deals collapsed nationally, with Tampa and San Antonio leading cancellations.
• Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-year fixed averaged 6.38% for the week ending March 26, up 16 bps week-over-week, the largest weekly jump since October 2025.
• FHFA released its Q4 2025 Foreclosure Prevention Report. Enterprise 60+ day delinquency rates rose to 0.84%, and initiated forbearance plans nearly doubled to 44,688 from 23,674 in Q3.
• NAHB: State and local property tax revenue topped $210 billion in Q4 2025, up 4.8% year-over-year, with property taxes accounting for 37.5% of total state/local tax collections.
• NOTUS reports Warren’s role in housing bill negotiations is threatening its passage in the House. Multiple sources say she discouraged stakeholders from publicly supporting a conference committee.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Redfin: 14% of Home-Sale Agreements Fell Through in February — a Record for the Month. More than 42,000 deals collapsed nationally, as buyers leveraged rising inventory and more negotiating power to walk away over price, repairs, or second thoughts. Cancellations were most common in Tampa and San Antonio, where there are roughly twice as many sellers as buyers. Source: Redfin
• Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Purchase Rate Hit 6.47% on Saturday, March 28, Up 10 bps from Friday. The 30-year rate has not been this high since late September 2025. The 15-year fixed rose 5 bps to 5.90%. Despite the rate headwinds, open houses are drawing larger crowds as the spring buying season gains momentum. Source: Yahoo Finance
• NAHB: State and Local Property Tax Revenue Topped $210 Billion in Q4 2025. Collections rose 4.8% year-over-year, with property taxes accounting for 37.5% of total state/local revenue for 2025 ($826.8 billion). The property tax share has been relatively stable at 37% over the past three years. Total state and local tax collections for 2025 were $2.2 trillion. Source: NAHB Eye on Housing
• FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rose 1.8% Year-Over-Year in Q4 2025. Quarter-over-quarter appreciation slowed to 0.8%, suggesting continued deceleration in home price growth as affordability headwinds build. Source: FHFA

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Mortgage News Daily: 30-Year Fixed Hit 6.64% on Friday, March 27 — An 8-Month High. MND described the day as “mixed blessings” — rates were tracking toward 6.7% before a late bond market rally pulled them back. The rate is more than 30 basis points above late February levels. Source: Mortgage News Daily
• Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-Year Fixed Averaged 6.38% for the Week Ending March 26. Up from 6.22% the prior week — the largest weekly increase since October 2025. The 15-year fixed jumped 21 bps to 5.75%. A year ago, the 30-year averaged 6.65%. Source: Freddie Mac
• Zillow: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Hit 6.97% on March 28, Up 25 bps Week-Over-Week. Refinance application volume dropped 15–19% in a single week. Most homeowners with sub-5% rates have no financial incentive to refinance, effectively closing the refi window. Source: Norada Real Estate
• FHFA: Q4 2025 Foreclosure Prevention, Refinance, and Mortgage Performance Report (Released March 26). Enterprise 60+ day delinquency rate rose to 0.84% from 0.78% in Q3. The serious (90+ day) delinquency rate increased to 0.58%, compared with 5.16% for FHA loans and 2.58% for VA loans. Initiated forbearance plans nearly doubled to 44,688 from 23,674 in Q3. Foreclosure starts rose 5.4% to 26,148. Total refinance volume rose in Q4, driven by rates easing to 6.19% by December. The cash-out refi share fell to 34.8%. The Enterprises have completed 7,318,928 foreclosure prevention actions since conservatorship began in 2008. Source: FHFA

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• NOTUS: Warren’s Role in Housing Bill Negotiations Is Threatening Its Passage in the House. According to more than a dozen sources, Warren discouraged housing advocacy groups from publicly calling for a conference committee, with her staff signaling that supporting negotiations would be “viewed as a red line.” House members say they were shut out of the process. Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE): “This has been House versus Senate, not Republicans versus Democrats.” Scott’s team has opposed a formal conference, arguing the Senate’s Trump-backed bill is the best path forward. Source: NOTUS
• CNBC (March 28): Sen. Merkley Discusses Senate Housing Bill, Tackling Affordability, and Regulating Prediction Markets. The Oregon Democrat addressed the path forward for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act and broader affordability measures. Source: CNBC
• CNBC (March 28): Rep. French Hill Says Senate Housing Bill Has Narrow but “Substantive” Differences.The House Financial Services Committee Chairman reiterated that the House will not take up the Senate bill as-is and that community bank provisions and FHA multifamily loan limit issues must be resolved, likely through a conference committee. Source: CNBC

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Dow Enters Correction Territory; S&P 500 Posts Fifth Straight Weekly Loss (March 27). The Dow fell 1.7% Friday, breaching the 10% decline threshold from its all-time high. The Nasdaq dropped 2.1%. The “Magnificent Seven” megacap stocks lost over $330 billion in market cap in a single session. Source: Yahoo Finance
• 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 4.46% on Friday, March 27 — Highest Since July 2025. The yield has risen roughly 50 bps since the start of the Iran conflict. The 2-year yield surged to approximately 4.0%, up about 50 bps from late February. Markets now price nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end — a dramatic reversal from expectations of two cuts just weeks ago. Source: Trading Economics
• Oil Prices Surge: Brent at $106+, WTI Above $100 on Friday, March 27. Macquarie raised its WTI outlook for FY2026 to approximately $83/barrel average, up from $58. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth described “very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran turned back two China-owned container ships from the Strait in an unusual expansion of its blockade. Source: CNBC
• Trump Extended Iran Strike Deadline to April 6 (March 27). The President said negotiations are “going very well,” but the Pentagon is reportedly considering up to 10,000 additional ground troops for the region. Markets briefly rallied on the headline before fading as oil resumed climbing. Source: TheStreet
• AEI: “An Official and Another View of the Fiscal Condition and Path of the US Government.” Mark Warshawsky’s analysis of the 2025 Financial Report shows the federal government’s net fiscal position deteriorated to negative $41.7 trillion in 2025, down from negative $39.6 trillion in 2024. Social insurance net expenditures over 75 years rose in present value from $78.3 trillion to $88.4 trillion. The fiscal gap widened from 4.3% to 4.7% of GDP. Both the official models and the WMP growth simulation model agree the current fiscal path is not sustainable. Source: AEI
• Carnival Corp. Cut FY2026 Earnings Guidance on Fuel Costs (Reported March 27–28). Adjusted EPS estimates reduced to $2.21 from $2.48, citing oil prices. The company is forecasting Brent crude at $90/barrel through May, $85 in Q3, and $80 in Q4. Source: Yahoo Finance

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• Mortgage Rates End Week at Six-Month Highs, Squeezing Spring CRE and Multifamily Activity (March 28). Both Freddie Mac (6.38%) and MND (6.64%) tracked another bump in borrowing costs by week’s end. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.428% on Friday. Money markets have shifted: traders now put the odds of a Fed rate hike this year near 60%. Analysts say a combination of steadier oil prices, easing inflation, and lower Treasury yields would be needed for meaningful rate relief. Source: TS2 Tech/Reuters
• Zillow at Multifamily Strategic Marketing Summit: Today’s Renters Are Budget-Conscious and Driving Market Change. Zillow presented new data from its 2026 Rentals Consumer Housing Trends Report, highlighting that renters are increasingly price-sensitive and that 77% involve at least one other person in their apartment-shopping decision. The rise of the “lifestyle renter” — households choosing to rent for flexibility even if they could buy — is reshaping demand. Zillow forecasts multifamily rents will rise just 0.9% by December 2026, with 39.2% of listings on Zillow offering concessions such as free rent or waived fees. Source: Zillow

Sources cited directly. All data current as of publication on March 30, 2026.