Daily Dose of Real Estate for April 2

The spring housing market limps into April on two legs: one propped up by cooling mortgage rates and the other buckling under the weight of a Middle East conflict that has added 50-plus basis points to the 30-year fixed since late February. Rates fell for a second straight day on April 1, dipping back below 6.50% on the Mortgage News Daily index, as bond markets cheered signals from both Washington and Tehran that a cease-fire may be in reach.

Whether that optimism survives contact with Friday’s BLS jobs report and a warning that April’s oil supply crunch will be worse than March’s is another question entirely. The ADP private payrolls print came in at 62,000 — steady but narrow, with healthcare doing almost all the heavy lifting — and the S&P Case-Shiller index confirmed what everyone already suspected: national home price appreciation has decelerated to just 0.9% year-over-year, the weakest reading since mid-2023. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, home values are now declining (a systemic decline is a very difficult thing to stop once it gets going). The AEI Housing Center’s latest indicators put the number even lower at 1.1% preliminary for February, calling it the lowest reading in the history of their series. The macro picture is a tug-of-war between a labor market that refuses to crack and an energy shock that refuses to quit, and the housing market is stuck in the middle holding the rope.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mortgage rates fell back below 6.50% on Mortgage News Daily’s index, marking the best two-day improvement since the Iran war began, driven by potential de-escalation signals. Mortgage News Daily
• MBA mortgage applications fell 10.4% for the week ending March 27, with the 30-year fixed at 6.57% and refinance volume plunging 17%. HousingWire
• S&P Case-Shiller national home price index rose just 0.9% year-over-year in January, the weakest annual gain since June 2023, with inflation outpacing home prices for the eighth consecutive month. S&P Dow Jones Indices
• AEI Housing Market Indicators show preliminary February 2026 year-over-year home price appreciation of 1.1%, the lowest level in the series history, with slowdowns now visible across all price tiers. aei
• ADP reported private-sector employers added 62,000 jobs in March, beating the 40,000 consensus, with healthcare adding 58,000 while trade, transportation, and utilities shed 58,000. ADP Media Center
• The IEA warned that April’s oil supply crunch will be worse than March’s, as pre-war cargo ships in transit are depleted and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. CNBC
• CMBS delinquencies spiked by $3.08 billion in March to $45.83 billion, the largest monthly increase in three years, per Trepp. Crenews
• First American data shows housing affordability in January was at its highest since August 2022, but the firm’s chief economist warned rising rates will blunt those gains. HousingWire
• The Urban Institute’s March Housing Finance at a Glance chartbook noted that rising oil prices have boosted long-term inflation expectations, pushing 10-year Treasury yields higher and reversing early-2026 mortgage affordability gains. urban
• Sen. Warren expanded her corporate landlord scrutiny from single-family to multifamily, sending letters to 14 institutional operators demanding data on rents, evictions, and complaints.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Case-Shiller: National Home Price Growth Cools to 0.9% YoY in January. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index posted a 0.9% annual gain, down from 1.1% the prior month. New York led at 4.9%, followed by Chicago at 4.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%. Monthly price changes were modestly positive after seasonal adjustment — consistent with a market neither recovering nor correcting sharply. S&P Dow Jones Indiceshttps://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-january-2026/
• Case-Shiller: Real Home Values Now Declining. After adjusting for inflation, the national index showed a -2.3% annual change. CPI rose 2.4% over the year ended January, outpacing the national index’s gain for the eighth consecutive month. The national index rose 2.2% in the first half of the measurement period but fell 1.3% in the most recent six months. Advisor Perspectives https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/31/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-up-for-sixth-straight-month
• Case-Shiller: Weakest Start to a Year Since Early 2010s. Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant noted the data marks the weakest start to a year for home prices since the early 2010s, adding that the Iran conflict has driven rates up in recent weeks, further constraining affordability. HousingWirehttps://www.housingwire.com/articles/case-shiller-january-home-prices/
• AEI Housing Market Indicators: HPA Falls to Series Low. AEI’s March 31 release showed February 2026 preliminary year-over-year home price appreciation at 1.1%, the lowest level in their series. The median purchase note rate fell slightly to 6.25% in week 13 of 2026, down 1.375 percentage points from the 2023 series peak but up 0.25 points from the 2024 low. The slowdown in appreciation is now visible across all price tiers. aeihttps://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-market-indicators-march-2026/

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 6.50% (Mortgage News Daily). Mortgage News Daily’s rate index on April 1 showed the 30-year fixed at 6.45%, down 2 bps. MND noted rates moved lower for a second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war, calling it the best two-day improvement since the conflict began. MBS prices were significantly stronger, which should support lower rates. Mortgage News DailyMortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
• MBA Applications Drop 10.4%, Refi Activity Plunges 17%. For the week ending March 27, total mortgage applications declined 10.4%. The 30-year fixed rose to 6.57%, its highest since August 2025. MBA’s Fratantoni noted refinance volumes are down more than 40% from the prior month, though still 33% above year-ago levels. The purchase index fell 3%, with the refi share dropping to 45.3% from 49.6%. HousingWirehttps://www.housingwire.com/articles/mba-applications-slide-rates-rise/
• Inflation Fears Keep Mortgage Rates in the Mid-6% Range. HousingWire reported MND rates at 6.55% as of Monday, up 6 bps from a week earlier. The OECD raised its 2026 G20 inflation forecast to 4%, up from 2.8% in December. Per the CME FedWatch tool, 97% of traders expect no Fed action in April, compared with 75% who expected a hold at the end of February. HousingWire https://www.housingwire.com/articles/inflation-fears-mortgage-rates/
• First American: Housing Affordability Started 2026 at Highest Level Since August 2022. First American’s Real House Price Index was nearly 11% lower year-over-year in January, driven by a 90 bps decline in mortgage rates, flat home price appreciation of 0.6%, and income growth of 3.1%. Chief economist Mark Fleming cautioned that geopolitical uncertainty and rising rates are likely to reverse those gains. HousingWirehttps://www.housingwire.com/articles/inflation-fears-mortgage-rates/
• Urban Institute: Rising Oil Prices Are Unmasking an Inflation Trend That Predates the War. The March Housing Finance at a Glance chartbook from the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center documented that after falling from 6.18% to 5.98% between late December and late February, 30-year mortgage rates rose 24 bps to 6.22% as of the week of March 20. Long-term market-based inflation expectations had been rising all quarter, but this trend was previously masked by declining mortgage spreads. The primary mortgage risk premium fell 7 bps to 1.95% while the 10-year Treasury rose 11 bps to 4.27%. urban https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/March%20v4.pdf
• STRATMOR: Servicing Is a Strategic Asset, Not Just an Operational Function. STRATMOR’s March Insights Report argued that in today’s purchase-driven market, borrower retention is shaped more by servicing interactions than origination. MortgageCX data shows fewer than 1 in 5 borrowers return to their original lender for their next loan, often not because they were unhappy at closing but because the relationship faded during servicing. Key friction points include payment setup after servicing transfers, escrow analysis surprises, and digital self-service failures. stratmorgroup https://www.stratmorgroup.com/manage-servicing-as-a-strategic-asset-add-it-to-the-executive-agenda/

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Sen. Warren Expands Corporate Landlord Scrutiny to Multifamily. Warren sent letters to 14 corporate landlords including Blackstone, Starwood, and Invitation Homes seeking detailed data on properties owned, rents charged, evictions conducted, and renter complaints, broadening her regulatory focus from single-family to multifamily and manufactured housing. Axios https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/housing-affordability-institutional-warren
• Data Center Transparency Concerns Raise CMBS Alarm. Bisnow reported on March 30 that transparency gaps and operating concerns are raising red flags in the rapidly expanding data center segment of the CMBS market, as securitization issuance balloons to meet AI-driven demand. Bisnow https://www.bisnow.com
• Apollo Eyes Sun Belt for Second Headquarters. Apollo Global Management is looking at Sun Belt markets for a second headquarters and growth engine, Bisnow reported March 30, reflecting the broader institutional push toward high-growth southern metros. Bisnow https://www.bisnow.com

ECONOMIC NEWS

• ADP: Private Sector Adds 62K Jobs in March, Beating Estimates. Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March versus the 40,000 consensus. Education and health services led at +58,000. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 58,000, and manufacturing shed 11,000. February was revised up to 66,000 from 63,000. ADP Media Center https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-04-01-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-62,000-Jobs-in-March-Annual-Pay-was-Up-45
• ADP: Small Employers Drive Growth; Pay Gains Hold Steady. Firms with fewer than 20 employees added 112,000 jobs, while mid-sized businesses (20–249 employees) saw combined losses of 53,000. Year-over-year pay for job-stayers held at 4.5%; job-changer pay growth accelerated to 6.6%. UPIhttps://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/04/01/adp-march-2026-jobs-report/8341775050760/
• NerdWallet: Workers Outside Healthcare Facing a Tough Search. NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter noted that while healthcare jobs remain plentiful, workers with skills outside that sector face a difficult job market, raising questions about the breadth of economic health underlying the headline numbers. Quartzhttps://qz.com/jobs-report-march-2026-adp
• BLS March Employment Report Due Friday, April 3. The official nonfarm payrolls release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics arrives this Friday, the most important data point ahead of the April 28–29 FOMC meeting.
• IEA Warns April Oil Supply Crunch Will Be Worse Than March. IEA head Fatih Birol said the energy crisis is the worst in history, with 12 million barrels per day lost — more than double the 1973 and 1979 oil crises combined. A second release from strategic reserves is under consideration but would only reduce the pain, not cure it. The cure, he said, is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/oil-price-iea-fatih-birol-brent-iran-strait-hormuz.html
• Gas Prices Top $4/Gallon Nationally for First Time Since 2022. AAA recorded $4.02/gallon on March 31, up from $2.98 just a month earlier. California averaged $5.87. GasBuddy warned diesel could reach $6/gallon and potentially set new records if conditions do not improve. Time https://time.com/article/2026/03/31/gas-prices-us-iran-war/
• Oil Drops on Iran Cease-Fire Signals, but Remains Above $100. WTI futures fell roughly 1.5% to settle near $101/barrel on March 31, after Iranian state media reported President Pezeshkian expressed readiness to end the war. Brent crude surged more than 60% in March, the largest monthly gain since records began in the 1980s. Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/oil-prices-fall-sharply-wti-trades-near-102-a-barrel
• 10-Year Treasury Volatile; S&P 500 Posts Worst Quarter Since 2022. The 10-year yield ballooned from 3.97% in late February to as high as 4.44%. The S&P 500 fell nearly 4.6% in Q1, with the Nasdaq in correction territory. Traders see only a slim chance the Fed cuts rates even once this year. Washington Timeshttps://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/mar/31/war-iran-shaken-financial-markets-see-impact-conflict-five-charts/

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• CMBS Delinquencies Post Largest Monthly Spike in Three Years. The volume of CMBS loans 30+ days delinquent surged by $3.08 billion in March to $45.83 billion, per Trepp’s March 31 report, marking the largest single-month increase in three years. Crenews https://crenews.com/2026/03/31/cmbs-delinquency-sees-biggest-increase-in-3-years/
• Sen. Warren Targets Multifamily Corporate Landlords. Warren’s letters to 14 firms including Blackstone and Starwood requested data on rents, eviction rates, and renter complaints across their multifamily and manufactured housing portfolios, escalating Congressional scrutiny of institutional apartment operators. Axioshttps://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/housing-affordability-institutional-warren
• Data Center CMBS Transparency Gaps Raise Investor Concerns. Bisnow reported March 30 that the rapidly growing data center CMBS market is raising alarms over operating risk disclosures as issuance volumes balloon. Bisnow https://www.bisnow.com
• Apollo Seeks Sun Belt Second HQ. Apollo Global Management is exploring Sun Belt markets for a second headquarters, per Bisnow’s March 30 report. Bisnow https://www.bisnow.com
• CRE Fundraising Up for First Time Since 2021. Commercial real estate equity fundraising posted its first annual increase since 2021, Bisnow reported March 18, signaling improving investor sentiment even amid elevated sector stress. Bisnow https://www.bisnow.com

INDUSTRY NEWS

• HousingWire Names 2026 Rising Stars. HousingWire on April 1 recognized 75 emerging leaders ages 40 and under making a meaningful impact across mortgage, real estate, and homebuilding. HousingWirehttps://www.housingwire.com/articles/introducing-the-2026-housingwire-rising-stars/
• STRATMOR: Fewer Than 1 in 5 Borrowers Return to Their Original Lender. STRATMOR’s March Insights Report made the case that servicing deserves a seat at the executive table. The firm’s MortgageCX data shows that the decision to return to a lender is shaped long before the next loan need arises, built through day-to-day servicing interactions that either reinforce trust or erode it. Key pain points include escrow analysis surprises, servicing transfers, and unreliable digital portals. stratmorgroup https://www.stratmorgroup.com/manage-servicing-as-a-strategic-asset-add-it-to-the-executive-agenda/
• AEI Housing Center Releases March 2026 Housing Market Indicators. The AEI’s monthly briefing, released March 31, showed preliminary February home price appreciation at 1.1% year-over-year, the lowest in the series. The decline is particularly noticeable in the lowest price tiers but is now visible across all tiers, with both elevated mortgage rates and home prices constraining buyers. aei https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-market-indicators-march-2026/
• Urban Institute Publishes March Housing Finance at a Glance. The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center released its March chartbook documenting the reversal in mortgage rates from 5.98% in late February back to 6.22% by mid-March. The analysis decomposed the move into a 7 bps improvement in mortgage spreads offset by an 11 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury, driven by long-term inflation expectations that were rising all quarter but were previously masked by declining risk premiums. urban https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/March%20v4.pdf