Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for April 28

Lot’s of action but not a lot of movement across a wide set of fronts on Monday. Tuesday delivered a narrow set of moves across a wide set of fronts. Mortgage rates continued witht the 30-year fixed holding at 6.32% — the sixth straight session inside a 4 bp range – the 10-year Treasury at 4.34% and the FOMC entering the final day of its blackout. KKR’s CEO Matt Salem called 2026 “a transition year.” D.R. Horton’s fiscal Q2 showed unsold completed inventory down 35% YoY to 5,500 homes, the lowest since FY 2023. Ginnie Mae issued APM 26-06 on Thursday, excluding FHA Trial Payment Plan loans from issuer delinquency ratios after FHA delinquencies averaged 9.2% from October through February — up 90 bps YoY — with TPP timeline distortion, not credit deterioration, identified as the driver. Sen Tillis dropped his block on Warsh on Sunday after DOJ closed the Powell investigation; Senate Banking now votes Wednesday at 10 a.m. on Warsh’s nomination.

Fed rate watchers are contending with housing data that seems to describe a market that is structurally frozen rather than cyclically slow (good luck with that). AEI’s preliminary March HPA came in at 1.2% YoY (-2.0% real) — the second-lowest reading in the 13-year series — bluntly framed as a reversion to the mean. ATTOM’s Q1 tenure data put the average U.S. seller at 8.44 years of ownership, roughly 2.5 years longer than the pre-pandemic norm, with Massachusetts pushing 12.7 and all-cash sales still hovering near 40% of transactions. Ginnie Mae’s APM 26-06, meanwhile, quietly acknowledged that FHA delinquency ratios have inflated mechanically because of the agency’s own loss-mitigation waterfall design — and excluded TPP loans from compliance calculations rather than admit the threshold itself might need rethinking. Real Brokerage’s $880M deal for RE/MAX — Motto Mortgage along for the ride — is the latest brokerage transaction that turns on distribution and scale rather than productivity or technology.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Real Brokerage to acquire RE/MAX Holdings for an $880M enterprise value (7x 2025 EBITDA), creating Real REMAX Group — a 180,000-agent platform spanning 120+ countries, with Motto Mortgage included.
  • Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed held at 6.32% on Monday, “perfectly unchanged” from Friday and extending the flatline as the market awaits Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
  • Senator Tillis dropped his block on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation Sunday after DOJ ended its Powell investigation, with the Senate Banking Committee now scheduled to vote Wednesday at 10 a.m. — concurrent with the FOMC meeting’s final day.
  • AEI’s preliminary March HPA came in at 1.2% YoY (-2.0% inflation-adjusted) — the second-lowest reading since the series began in 2013, behind only February — with Tobias Peter and Ed Pinto framing it as “a reversion to the mean” driven by elevated pandemic prices, post-2022 rates, and a shrinking pool of qualified entry-level buyers.
  • Ginnie Mae issued APM 26-06 on April 24, temporarily excluding FHA Trial Payment Plan loans from issuer delinquency calculations starting with March 2026 reporting — a response to the FHA loss-mitigation waterfall change that has lengthened TPP timelines and inflated reported delinquency ratios.
  • MSCI’s RCA CPPI U.S. National All-Property Index rose 2.1% YoY in March, the strongest annual gain since late 2022, with suburban office leading at +5.1% and multifamily flat for the quarter.
  • KKR Real Estate Finance Trust slashed its quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.10 Friday, posting a $61.9M Q1 net loss while authorizing a $75M share repurchase, with CEO Matt Salem calling 2026 a “transition year.”
  • ATTOM’s Q1 2026 homeownership tenure data shows the average U.S. seller had owned 8.44 years, slightly below Q4 2025’s 8.46 but up from 7.93 a year earlier — Massachusetts (12.70 years) and Connecticut (12.53) lead the country, Maine (4.44) trails, and all-cash sales remain at roughly 40% of transactions.
  • Logan Mohtashami noted Monday morning that “mortgage pricing should be flat to slightly higher today” as bond yields tick up amid renewed oil-price pressure and no Iran deal.
  • Deloitte’s 2026 CRE M&A Outlook projects a recovery following 2025’s 57% drop in deal value, with property management, accounting, and tech-enabled platforms cited as key consolidation targets.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

  • AEI’s March 2026 National HPA Index registered preliminary 1.2% YoY (-2.0% inflation-adjusted), the same as a month ago and down from 2.6% in March 2025 and 4.5% in March 2019. Peter and Pinto note March was the second-lowest YoY HPA reading since the series began in 2013, with the strongest reversions occurring in South and West metros; ICE-based projections show 1.3% for April and 1.6% through the first half of May. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-national-home-price-appreciation-hpa-index-march-2026/
  • ATTOM’s Q1 2026 Homeownership Tenure report shows U.S. sellers held their homes an average of 8.44 years before selling — down marginally from 8.46 in Q4 2025 but well above the 7.93-year average of Q1 2025. Massachusetts (12.70 years), Connecticut (12.53), and Rhode Island (11.07) topped the list; Maine (4.44), South Dakota (5.71), and Mississippi (6.04) sat at the bottom. ATTOM attributes elevated tenure to lock-in effects, limited inventory, and high prices, with all-cash sales holding around 40% of transactions. https://www.attomdata.com/news/most-recent/homeownership-tenure-by-state/
  • Redfin national median sale price hit $437,000 (+1.4% YoY) in mid-April, with the company noting that home prices have grown 1.2% YoY since last March, compared to ~7% annual growth from January 2012 through the pre-pandemic period. Redfin frames the current market as undergoing “a long, slow reset” with affordability still 30% below five-year norms. https://www.redfin.com/blog/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-a-house/
  • D.R. Horton’s fiscal Q2 2026 results show unsold completed inventory down 25% from December and 35% YoY to 5,500 homes — the lowest since fiscal 2023 — as the builder slowed spec starts to balance pace with demand. CEO Paul Romanowski said both unsold homes as a percentage of total inventory and completed unsold inventory hit fiscal 2023 lows. https://www.fastcompany.com/91532304/housing-market-homebuilding-homebuilders-home-prices-dr-horton-earnings

MORTGAGE MARKETS

  • Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed held at 6.32% on Monday, April 27, perfectly unchanged from Friday’s close, with the 15-year edging up 1 bp to 5.92% and the 30-year jumbo down 1 bp to 6.52%. MND’s headline read “Mortgage Rates Perfectly Unchanged to Start New Week.” https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04272026
  • Friday’s MND commentary noted the 30-year held a 0.03% range for the entire prior week and a 0.04% range going back to the prior Tuesday — “today’s mark is close enough to Friday’s 6.29% to say rates are hovering at the lowest levels in more than a month.” https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/mnd
  • Ginnie Mae issued APM 26-06 on April 24, temporarily excluding FHA Trial Payment Plan (TPP) loans from issuer delinquency ratio calculations for compliance purposes effective with March 2026 reporting. The change responds to the FHA’s 2025 loss-mitigation waterfall update, which now requires borrowers to complete a TPP before partial-claim and other workouts — lengthening resolution timelines and inflating reported delinquency. President Joseph Gormley said Ginnie Mae will give at least 60 days’ notice before reverting to the standard calculation, and signaled it expects to review its delinquency-threshold policy more broadly. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ginnie-mae-fha-tpps/
  • The TPP-driven delinquency distortion is sizable. Ginnie Mae’s March report shows FHA delinquencies averaged 9.2% from October 2025 through February 2026, up 90 bps from the prior year, while ICE’s April Mortgage Monitor shows the national delinquency rate rose to 3.72% in February — with FHA loans accounting for more than 80% of the recent rise and seriously delinquent FHA volumes up more than 40% YoY. Roll rates from current to 90+ days remain stable, supporting Ginnie Mae’s view that the spike is structural rather than credit-driven. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ginnie-mae-fha-tpps/
  • The Real Brokerage / RE/MAX deal includes Motto Mortgage, the only national mortgage brokerage franchise brand in the U.S., which will continue operating under its existing brand within the combined company. Real has secured a $550M financing commitment led by Morgan Stanley Senior Funding and Apollo Global Funding to refinance RE/MAX’s existing debt. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260426359658/en/Real-to-Acquire-REMAX-Creating-a-Leading-Technology-Enabled-Global-Real-Estate-Platform

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) dropped his block on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation Sunday after DOJ ended its criminal investigation of Chair Jerome Powell, telling NBC’s “Meet the Press” he received “assurances from the DOJ that I needed to make sure they were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.” Acting AG Todd Blanche said any future investigation now sits with the inspector general. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/26/thom-tillis-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve.html
  • The Senate Banking Committee will vote on Warsh’s nomination Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT — concurrent with the FOMC’s final meeting day — increasing the chances Warsh will be in place by Powell’s May 15 term end and run the June FOMC meeting. With Tillis on board, Republicans hold a 13-11 committee margin. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/senate-panel-to-vote-on-wednesday-on-advancing-fed-chair-warsh-s-nomination-ce7f59ddd88bf223
  • Comptroller Gould issued a statement April 23 on the Community Bank Leverage Ratio final rule, framing it as “meaningful and necessary regulatory flexibility” for community banks and committing the OCC to “targeted regulatory reforms that ease the burden on community banks and foster local economic growth.” The CBLR rule, finalized jointly by the OCC, FDIC, and Federal Reserve, simplifies capital adequacy measurement for qualifying institutions. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2026/nr-occ-2026-31.html
  • Ginnie Mae’s APM 26-06 (April 24) is the most operationally consequential agency action in the freshness window for IMBs and bank issuers in the GNMA program — easing pass/fail compliance pressure on issuers whose ratios have inflated mechanically because of the TPP requirement, without altering underlying loan-level reporting. Ginnie Mae also signaled a broader review of its delinquency-threshold policy “in the context of today’s marketplace.” https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ginnie-mae-fha-tpps/
  • The FOMC enters its blackout period heading into the April 28-29 meeting, with no Fed speeches scheduled. Markets are pricing essentially zero probability of a cut or hike, and the meeting is expected to be Powell’s last as Chair. https://www.kiplinger.com/news/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-april-2026

ECONOMIC NEWS

  • J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting and to continue holding through the rest of 2026, before hiking 25 bps in Q3 2027 — though the Fed could cut if the labor market weakens significantly or if energy-driven inflation worsens. https://www.prosperity-direct.com/blog/market-update-april-24-2026
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34% on Monday, up 3.5 bps, as markets digested the lack of weekend progress on Iran peace talks and positioned for the FOMC. UMBS 30YR 5.0 traded at 99.03, down 0.19 on the session. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/mnd
  • The S&P 500 traded down 0.1% Monday and the Nasdaq down 0.2% after both notched all-time highs Friday, as investors looked ahead to the FOMC announcement and a heavy week of Big Tech earnings. https://www.kiplinger.com/news/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-april-2026
  • The March 2026 New Residential Sales report (originally scheduled for April 23) has been rescheduled to May 5, alongside the previously delayed February data — a Census Bureau backlog that continues to obscure the new-home pipeline going into the FOMC meeting. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/
  • The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April showed production accelerating sharply — the production index jumped 12 points to 19.0 (above-average expansion), capacity utilization rose 13 points to 19.8, and shipments surged 13 points to 15.0 — even as the general business activity index slipped two points to -2.3 and employment stayed flat. Pricing pressures intensified, with finished goods prices hitting 27.6 (highest reading since July 2022) and raw materials prices at 37.0, while survey commentary cited Iran war/Strait of Hormuz disruption and diesel fuel costs as recurring headwinds. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2604

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

INDUSTRY NEWS

  • The Real Brokerage (NASDAQ: REAX) will acquire RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) at an $880M enterprise value (7x 2025 EBITDA), creating Real REMAX Group with ~$2.3B pro forma 2025 revenue and $157M adjusted EBITDA. RE/MAX shareholders can elect 5.152 Real REMAX Group shares or $13.80 cash per share, subject to proration with cash capped between $60M and $80M. Real shareholders will own ~59% of the combined entity. https://investors.onereal.com/news/news-details/2026/Real-to-Acquire-REMAX-Creating-a-Leading-Technology-Enabled-Global-Real-Estate-Platform/default.aspx
  • The combined company will operate ~8,500 franchises and 180,000+ agents across 120+ countries, with management projecting $30M in annual cost savings by 2027 and rapid deleveraging to below 2x net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of the second full fiscal year post-close. Real CEO Tamir Poleg will lead the combined entity as Chairman and CEO. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/real-to-acquire-remax-880-million-real-remax-group/
  • Montclif, a new Chevy Chase, MD-based investment firm, launched Friday targeting $1B in investments along the East Coast and Sun Belt — primarily office buildings with distressed or underperforming capital stacks in the $30M–$150M range, structured as deal-by-deal joint ventures. Founders Erik Weinberg (formerly FCP) and Jackson Prentice (formerly Carr Properties and MRP Realty) plan to partner with equity investors per deal rather than raise large funds, with FCP supporting operations and serving as a potential equity investor. https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/deal-sheet/the-dc-deal-sheet-134274
  • Cushman & Wakefield, CBRE, and Bank OZK reported Q1 2026 last week. CBRE’s Q1 profit jumped 95%, fueled by data center work; CBRE’s Michael Riccio said the firm is on track for 16% YoY sales-activity growth with similar debt-side action. Bank OZK’s Q1 showed real estate exposure falling but nonperforming assets doubling — the divergence reflecting the continued bifurcation between core institutional CRE and lender-side stress in legacy office and bridge-loan vintages. https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/commercial-property-prices-strongest-annual-gain-since-2022-134280
  • The Texas Mortgage Bankers Association’s 110th Annual Convention opened in Austin Sunday at the Marriott Downtown under the theme “Burn The Playbook,” with Monday’s general sessions getting underway against an unusually loud national news backdrop. Texas mortgage executives are convening as the industry digests three developments that landed in the 72 hours before the gavel: Real Brokerage’s $880M acquisition of RE/MAX (with Motto Mortgage included), Ginnie Mae’s APM 26-06 excluding FHA Trial Payment Plan loans from issuer delinquency ratios, and Senator Tillis dropping his block on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination ahead of Wednesday’s Banking Committee vote. The convention runs through Tuesday. https://www.texasmba.org/convention/
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