The wholesale and consumer ends of housing are diverging. Originations and capital markets are functioning well: MBA’s Q1 commercial/multifamily originations ran 52% above last year, Freddie Mac multifamily funding rose 30% YoY, CMBS delinquent volume dropped $815 million in April, UWM’s Q1 refinance volume more than doubled YoY to $26.3 billion with gain-on-sale margins expanding to 123 bps, and Carrington’s acquisition of Valon Mortgage and adoption of ValonOS — the second large servicer to commit to that platform after Newrez — confirms the servicing-tech consolidation thesis has buyers willing to write checks (pretty rare). The consumer side is softer: NAR’s national price gain decelerated to 0.5%, Zillow’s April report showed listings outrunning sales for the first time in 2026, and ATTOM reported that the share of mortgaged homes with at least 50% equity fell to 43.3% — the lowest since late 2021 — with Florida, Arizona, and the Sun Belt leading the decline. Realtor.com’s Q1 new-construction data showed urban new builds are just 10.9% of new-home listings nationally and carry a 78% premium over urban resales ($738,662 versus $414,000) — builders have followed land costs and entitlement timelines to the suburbs. That gap is the cleanest case yet for office-to-residential conversions in CBDs where Class B/C office trades below replacement cost: the unit economics that didn’t pencil at 3% rates and 95% occupancy start to pencil at 6.4% rates and structural vacancy, though floor-plate geometry rules out a meaningful share of older stock.
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report were strong, with the 4-week initial-claims moving average at 203,250 — among the lowest readings in decades — and continuing claims (insured unemployment) down 10,000 to 1.77 million, suggesting layoffs and the duration of UI spells both remain contained heading into Friday’s BLS report. ADP’s 109,000 April print was the strongest in fifteen months, JOLTS showed openings steady at 6.9 million with hires up 655,000, and ISM Services notched its 22nd straight month of expansion at 53.6. Friday’s BLS Employment Situation report — consensus 55,000 nonfarm payrolls versus ADP’s 109,000, with U-3 expected at 4.3% — will set the tone for whether markets price the labor market as strong-and-steady or strong-and-overheating heading into the next FOMC meeting. Two regional Fed presidents characterized the Iran conflict as an inflation shock, with the St Louis Fed President flagging that a rate hike cannot be ruled out.
Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Mortgage rates retrace Iran-spike on peace-deal headlines. MND’s 30-year fixed fell 10 bps to 6.44% on Thursday after overnight reports that the U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memorandum outlining a more formal peace agreement, sending oil prices and bond yields lower at their fastest pace since mid-April. Mortgage News Daily, May 6
- MBA: Q1 commercial/multifamily borrowing up 52% YoY. Total commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volume jumped 52% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to MBA’s Quarterly Survey released May 7 — confirming the strong start to a year MBA had previously forecast at $805 billion in total CRE/MF originations. MBA News
- Mortgage applications fall 4.4% on highest rates in a month. MBA’s weekly survey for the week ending May 1 showed total applications down 4.4%, refis off 5%, and the 30-year contract rate at 6.45% — the highest in a month — though the average loan size on a purchase application hit a 36-year survey record of $467,300. MBA, May 6
- Weekly jobless claims: insured unemployment rate at 1.1% on unadjusted basis. Initial claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 for the week ending May 2, but the 4-week moving average fell to 203,250 — historically very low. DOL, May 7
- HUD slashes MAP Guide environmental requirements. Mortgagee Letter 2026-04 (May 4) revises four FHA multifamily environmental review items — eliminating standalone railroad vibration assessments and updating pipeline/transmission setbacks — effective immediately for any application not yet at initial endorsement. HUD, May 4
- NAR: Q1 home prices rose in 71% of metros, but national gain slows to 0.5%. The national median single-family existing-home price was $404,300 in Q1, up just 0.5% YoY — down from 1.2% in Q4 — with 167 of 235 metros posting gains. NAR, May 5
- Zillow April: spring sales recovery stalls as listings outpace sales. Zillow’s April Market Report showed new listings up 2.1% YoY versus sales down 0.4%, the first month in 2026 that supply growth exceeded sales growth, with the typical home value at $366,712 (up 0.7% YoY) and the typical mortgage payment down 3.4% to $1,829. Zillow, May 6
- ATTOM: equity-rich share falls to lowest since Q4 2021. ATTOM’s Q1 2026 Home Equity & Underwater Report showed 43.3% of mortgaged homes were equity-rich, down from 44.6% in Q4, while seriously underwater properties rose to 3.2% from 3.0% — with Florida, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Texas posting the largest YoY drops in equity-rich share. ATTOM, May 7
- UWM Q1: $44.9B in originations, $170M net income. United Wholesale Mortgage reported its second-highest first-quarter production ever, up 39% YoY, reversing a $247M Q1 2025 loss; refis rose to $26.3B from $10.6B a year earlier as gain-on-sale margin expanded to 123 bps. UWM 8-K, May 6
- Carrington to acquire Valon Mortgage, adopt ValonOS. Carrington Mortgage Services and Valon announced a strategic partnership May 7 in which Carrington — with a private-equity partner — will acquire Valon Mortgage (about 800,000 loans), implement ValonOS as its core servicing platform, and target Ginnie Mae servicing modernization; closing is expected in Q3 2026 with terms undisclosed. Carrington/Valon, May 7
- Fed officials warn Iran war is increasingly an “inflation shock.” Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee said May 6 the Iran conflict has “not yet been a stagflationary-direction shock — it has just been an inflationary shock”; St. Louis Fed’s Musalem said risks have shifted “more toward inflation,” requiring rates to stay on hold “for some time” and possibly move up. Reuters via Yahoo
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
- NAR Q1 metro home-price report: 71% of metros up, but national gain decelerates to 0.5%. Home prices rose YoY in 167 of 235 metros (down from 73% in Q4), with the national median single-family existing-home price at $404,300, up 0.5% YoY. Sixteen markets (7%) posted double-digit gains, up from 5% last quarter. The Northeast led regional gains; the West region did not see a sales increase. NAR, May 5
- Zillow April: sales recovery stalls as new listings outrun sales. New listings rose 2.1% YoY to 426,356 in April while sales were down 0.4% — the first month in 2026 that supply growth outpaced sales growth, per Zillow’s April Market Report. Active inventory hit 1.3 million, up 3.7% YoY; the typical home value rose 0.7% YoY to $366,712, while the typical mortgage payment dropped 3.4% YoY to $1,829. Zillow, May 6
- ATTOM: equity-rich rate drops to lowest level since 2021. Equity-rich mortgaged homes fell to 43.3% in Q1 (from 44.6% in Q4) — the lowest share since Q4 2021 — while seriously underwater rose to 3.2% nationally, ATTOM reported May 7. The biggest YoY drops in equity-rich share were in Florida (down 6.1 points to 43.2%), Arizona (down 5.6 points), Colorado, North Carolina, and Texas; Louisiana (11.8%), Kentucky (8.5%), and Mississippi (8.0%) had the highest seriously underwater shares. ATTOM, May 7
- Realtor.com: urban new construction commands a 78% premium. Realtor.com’s Q1 New Construction Insights Report, released May 7, found just 10.9% of new-build listings are in urban zip codes (versus nearly 30% of existing homes), with a $738,662 median list price for urban new construction — a 78.4% premium over urban existing homes at $414,000. The national new-construction premium widened to 15.1% from 14.0% a year ago as median new-construction list prices held flat at $449,373 and existing prices fell 0.9% YoY. Realtor.com, May 7
- New-home sales rebound 7.4% in March; median price down 6.2% YoY. Sales of new single-family homes hit a 682,000 SAAR in March, up 7.4% MoM and 3.3% YoY, per Census/HUD data released May 5. The median price fell to $387,400 — down 6.2% YoY — as builders leaned heavily on incentives; supply tightened to 8.5 months from 9.2 a year earlier. Real Estate News, May 5
- Redfin: AI wealth is splitting the Bay Area housing market. Bay Area luxury home prices ($3.1M-$7.6M) have jumped 13.4% since ChatGPT’s November 2022 launch, while lower-end Bay Area homes ($535K-$615K) have fallen 3.8%, with the San Francisco metro median up 14.4% YoY in March to a record $1.7M. Redfin via Fortune, May 7
- NYC: Archdiocese sells Lotte NY Palace ground lease for $491M. The Archdiocese of New York sold the ground lease for the Lotte New York Palace at 455-457 Madison Avenue to the Seoul-based hotel operator for $491.1M to fund settlements with survivors of clergy sexual abuse, the top NYC commercial transaction recorded in the 24 hours before 4 p.m. May 6. The Real Deal, May 7
MORTGAGE MARKETS
- MND 30-year fixed at 6.44%, down 10 bps on peace-deal headlines. Mortgage News Daily’s average 30-year fixed fell to 6.44% on Wednesday after spiking sharply on Monday to a one-month high on Iran-war escalation fears; oil prices and bond yields fell at their fastest pace since mid-April after overnight reports that the U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memorandum outlining a peace agreement. The 15-year is at 6.00%, FHA at 5.92%, jumbo at 6.60%. Mortgage News Daily, May 6
- MBA weekly survey: applications down 4.4%; purchase loan size sets 36-year record. Total applications fell 4.4% for the week ending May 1, with refis off 5% and purchase apps down 3.7%. The 30-year contract conforming rate rose to 6.45% from 6.37% — the highest in a month. The average loan size on a purchase application climbed to $467,300, the highest in the survey’s 36-year history, as MBA’s Joel Kan noted that lower-priced and first-time buyers appear most hesitant. MBA, May 6
- Q1 2026 commercial/multifamily borrowing up 52% YoY. MBA’s Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, released May 7, showed first-quarter origination volume rose 52% versus Q1 2025, supporting MBA’s full-year forecast of $805.5B in total CRE/MF originations and $399.2B in multifamily. MBA Quarterly Index
- Refi share lowest since August 2025. Per MBA, the refinance share of total applications fell to 42.0% from 42.5%, with the conventional and VA refi declines the most pronounced; FHA share of total apps rose to 17.7% and the average ARM rate fell to 5.60% from 5.66%. MBA, May 6
REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
- HUD streamlines MAP Guide environmental reviews via Mortgagee Letter 2026-04. HUD on May 4 published Mortgagee Letter 2026-04, revising four environmental requirements in the Multifamily Accelerated Processing Guide: removing standalone railroad vibration assessment requirements, updating setback rules for pressurized pipelines and high-voltage transmission lines, clarifying noise-sensitive outdoor uses, and reverting other items now treated as underwriting rather than environmental review considerations. Changes are effective immediately for any application that has not reached initial endorsement. HUD No. 26-032, May 4
- HUD’s Office of Multifamily Housing hosts MAP environmental webinar today. HUD scheduled a 1:00 p.m. ET webinar on May 7 to walk lenders, consultants, and industry partners through the ML 2026-04 changes. HUD Office of Multifamily Housing
- Fed’s Musalem: risks tilting toward inflation, possibly requiring hikes. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on May 6 said inflation is running “meaningfully above” the Fed’s 2% target and that rates may need to stay on hold “for some time” — and possibly move up — though he acknowledged scenarios in which cuts would be appropriate if demand weakens and unemployment rises. Bloomberg, May 6
- Fed’s Goolsbee: Iran war “just an inflationary shock” — for now. Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference on May 6, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Iran conflict has not yet produced a stagflationary shock affecting both jobs and prices, but warned that prolonged elevated oil prices could trigger pandemic-style supply chain pressures. Reuters via Yahoo, May 6
ECONOMIC NEWS
- ADP: Private employers add 109,000 jobs in April — 15-month high. April private payrolls beat the 99,000 consensus and accelerated from a downwardly revised 61,000 in March, with services adding 94,000 jobs (education and health services alone +61,000) and goods-producing sectors adding 15,000. Pay growth for job-stayers eased to 4.4%. ADP, May 6
- ISM Services PMI: 53.6 in April, prices paid stuck near multi-year high. The Services PMI eased 0.4 point to 53.6 (22nd straight month in expansion), but new orders fell 7.1 points to 53.5 — the steepest single-month drop in three years — and the Prices Index held at 70.7, the highest reading since October 2022. Real Estate, Rental & Leasing was among industries reporting contraction; one respondent flagged 2026 as on track for the lowest annual home sales since 1995. ISM via Forex Factory, May 5
- JOLTS: Job openings hold at 6.9M in March; openings rate eases to 4.1%. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released May 5 showed job openings essentially unchanged at 6.9 million, with hires up to 5.6 million and separations little changed at 5.4 million; the openings rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%. BLS via Forex Factory, May 5
- Weekly jobless claims: insured unemployment rate at 1.1% on unadjusted basis. Initial claims rose 10,000 to 200,000 for the week ending May 2, but the 4-week moving average fell to 203,250 — historically very low. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2% seasonally adjusted (1.1% unadjusted, down 0.1 point), with insured unemployment at 1.766 million, down 10,000 from the prior week and down 110,000 from a year ago — among the lowest sustained readings in decades. DOL, May 7
- Friday April employment report in focus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the April Employment Situation report May 8, with consensus around 55,000 nonfarm payrolls — well below the ADP print — and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Reuters via Union Leader, May 6
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)
- MBA Q1 originations: commercial/multifamily borrowing up 52% YoY. First-quarter 2026 commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations were 52% higher than Q1 2025, per MBA’s Quarterly Survey released May 7 — building on last year’s strong second-half momentum and supporting MBA’s $805.5B full-year origination forecast. MBA Quarterly Index
- Trepp Connect 2026 kicks off in Manhattan: lenders bullish but disciplined. Trepp’s second annual Connect conference opened May 6 at Rockefeller Center, with lenders across capital sources reporting plenty of capital to deploy and property owners accepting that interest rates will remain elevated. Commercial Real Estate Direct, May 6
- CMBS delinquent volume drops $815M in April. The volume of CMBS loans classified as delinquent declined by $815 million in April to $45.02 billion, with delinquency volumes gyrating over the past 12 months — climbing in six and falling in another six. Commercial Real Estate Direct, May 6
- Freddie Mac multifamily Q1 funding up 30% YoY. Freddie Mac funded $12.85 billion of multifamily loans in Q1, up 30% from $10 billion a year earlier but down 55% from $29 billion in Q4 2025 — typical first-quarter seasonality. Commercial Real Estate Direct, May 6
- NCREIF Property Index Q1 returns: 1.23% unleveraged total return. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries’ Property Index, which tracks ~13,000 institutionally owned properties valued at roughly $900 billion, posted a 1.23% unleveraged total return in Q1 2026. Commercial Real Estate Direct, May 6
- NYC: RXR sells Clinton Hill development site for $121M. RXR sold its Clinton Hill development site at 47 Hall Street for $121.4 million to Yitzchok Schwartz’s YS Developers — a 25% discount to the $161 million RXR paid in 2016 — with the buyer pivoting from RXR’s planned luxury office conversion to a mixed-use development with apartments, retail, and self-storage. The Real Deal, May 7
INDUSTRY NEWS
- Carrington and Valon form strategic partnership; Carrington to acquire Valon Mortgage. Carrington Mortgage Services and Valon announced May 7 that Carrington — alongside an undisclosed private-equity investor — will acquire Valon Mortgage (~800,000 loans, building on a current Carrington portfolio of 998,000 loans and $211B UPB) and adopt ValonOS as its core servicing platform, with Ginnie Mae servicing modernization a stated focus. The deal redirects Valon to a pure software-company posture and is expected to close in Q3 2026; terms were not disclosed. Carrington/Valon, May 7
- UWM Q1 2026: $44.9B in originations, $170M net income. UWM Holdings on May 6 reported Q1 loan origination volume of $44.9 billion (up 39% YoY, the second-highest first quarter in company history), net income of $170.4 million (versus a $247M Q1 2025 loss), and total gain margin of 123 bps — including refis of $26.3 billion versus $10.6 billion a year earlier. The company also rolled out VantageScore 4.0 within four business days of FHFA pilot approval. UWM 8-K, May 6
- Better Home & Finance: Q1 funded volume reaches $1.64B, up 89% YoY. Better preliminarily reported Q1 funded loan volume of $1.64 billion, exceeding the high end of its $1.40B–$1.55B guidance, and reaffirmed an end-of-May 2026 target of $1.0 billion in monthly volume contingent on continued Tinman AI Platform partnership growth. Better 8-K
- Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Q1: $7.4M GAAP loss, $0.32 dividend declared. Angel Oak Mortgage REIT on May 5 reported a Q1 GAAP net loss of $7.4M ($0.30 per diluted share) but distributable earnings of $4.6M ($0.18 per share), with net interest income up 20.1% YoY to $12.1M; the company executed a $272 million securitization in early March before geopolitical-related spread-widening. Angel Oak Mortgage 8-K, May 5
- Granite Point Mortgage Trust Q1: $6.0M GAAP loss; book value $7.05/share. Granite Point reported a Q1 GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $6.0M ($0.13 per share) and a $3.0M distributable earnings loss; book value per common share is $7.05, inclusive of $3.10 of total CECL reserve. Granite Point 8-K, May 5
- Figure plans first-lien push targeting Fannie/Freddie pricing. At Consensus Miami, Figure CEO Mike Cagney said the blockchain-based lender will challenge Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in first-lien mortgages on a 91% origination-cost advantage ($1,000 vs $11,000), as the company pivots to a marketplace model with projected 80–85% contribution margins. Figure crossed $1B in monthly originations in March. CoinDesk, May 6