Daily Dose of Real Estate for May 13

April CPI came in at a “dang-it” 3.8% YoY with a 0.64% monthly print, the worst annual reading since April 2023, driven by gasoline up 5.4% on the Iran conflict, electricity up 2.1% on data-center demand, and core services up 0.50%. Warsh or no Warsh — this is pushing inflation above the Fed’s 3.50%–3.75% policy rate. The 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.42%, markets priced out 2026 rate cuts entirely and assigned a 27% probability to a December hike, and Mortgage News Daily put the 30-year fixed at 6.52% (real kick in the teeth for LOs and buyers). Fannie Mae’s retained portfolio more than doubled YoY to $168.7B as the GSEs continued executing Trump’s January directive to purchase $200B in MBS, with no fresh policy news on the IPO front — the path to lower mortgage rates now runs through the balance-sheet mechanics that contributed to conservatorship in the first place, though there is a credible case for the GSEs using their balance sheets here.

ICE’s May Mortgage Monitor reported April home prices up 0.32% (sadly, the strongest monthly gain in two years) and Q1 first-lien refis hitting $242B, even as FHA loans reached a record 55% of all seriously delinquent mortgages. Optimal Blue’s April Market Advantage showed conforming share dropping below 50% of locks for the first time on record and agency MBS execution share jumping 354 bps to 44%, while the MBA Credit Availability Index fell another 0.4%. On the commercial side, Trepp’s overall CMBS delinquency rate edged down 1 bp to 7.54% but multifamily set a new record at 7.71% (don’t expect improvement anytime soon). Silverstein is restarting 2 World Trade Center construction with American Express pre-leasing the full 1.95M sq ft, Durst put 600,000 sq ft at 114 W 47th up for lease, STRS Ohio paid $85M for a 212-unit Elmhurst apartment property, Buc-ee’s announced six new states, and the NY Fed reported household debt holding steady at $18.8T with mortgage delinquency transitions actually ticking down to 3.8% — small businessesremain pessimistic about everything except their ability to raise prices, which a net 27% plan to do over the next three months.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• April CPI ran 3.8% YoY (+0.64% MoM SA, +8.0% annualized), the hottest YoY print since April 2023; core CPI at 2.8% YoY; the Fed’s 3.50%–3.75% policy band is now negative in real terms.
• 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.42% Tuesday, a one-week high, as the inflation print reinforced expectations the Fed holds rates through year-end.
• Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board 51-45 on Tuesday; chairmanship vote expected later this week with Powell’s term ending Friday.
• Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed climbed to 6.52% (+3 bps) Tuesday; 15-year at 6.00%, jumbo 6.61%, FHA 5.95%, VA 5.97%, 7/6 ARM 6.29%.
• ICE May Mortgage Monitor: April home prices rose 0.32% SA (3.9% SAAR) — strongest monthly gain in two years; Q1 first-lien refis hit $242B (highest since early 2022, 44% of all originations).
• Optimal Blue’s April Market Advantage: total lock volume -9% MoM/+11% YoY; conforming share dropped below 50% for the first time on record; agency MBS execution share +354 bps to 44%.
• Fannie Mae’s retained mortgage portfolio more than doubled YoY to $168.7B as the Trump administration directed the GSEs to purchase $200B in MBS to suppress rates ahead of a potential IPO.
• NY Fed Q1 Household Debt Report: total household debt held at $18.8T (+0.1% QoQ); mortgage balances rose $21B to $13.19T; new mortgage delinquency transitions ticked down from 3.9% to 3.8%.

RESIDENTIAL

• ICE May Mortgage Monitor showed April home prices up 0.32% SA — the firmest monthly gain in nearly two years, equivalent to a 3.9% annualized rate. Annual growth accelerated to 0.9% (from a revised 0.7% in March). 90% of markets posted SA gains; 70 of the 100 largest markets posted YoY gains. Northeast led with seven of the eight fastest-appreciating markets; Rochester topped the list at 1.2% MoM (>14% annualized). All 30 markets posting YoY declines were in the South and West. (ICE)
• Optimal Blue: Purchase locks fell just under 2% MoM but rose more than 9% YoY in April. Average loan amount declined to $394,046 from $401,100 in March; average purchase credit score held at 735. FTHBs were 47% of conforming purchase locks, 70% of FHA and 45% of VA. (Optimal Blue)
• Wolf Street on supply: Existing single-family supply hit a 10-year high, condo supply at the highest level since 2012, with sales in deepfreeze through April. (Wolf Street)
• Zillow sued Compass and a Chicago-area MLS in federal court Monday over private-listing practices. (MortgagePoint)
• Eaton Fire renter cash-assistance program launched in LA County this week. (MortgagePoint)

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• MND survey Tuesday put the 30-year fixed at 6.52% (+3 bps), 15-year at 6.00%, jumbo 6.61%, FHA 5.95%, VA 5.97%, 7/6 ARM 6.29%. (Mortgage News Daily)
• ICE May Mortgage Monitor — Q1 refinance lending hit a four-year high. First-lien refis totaled $242B in Q1 2026, more than doubling YoY and the strongest quarterly total since early 2022. Refis represented nearly 44% of all originations (highest share in four years); rate-and-term refis were 60% of all refi activity (five-year high). Average rate-and-term refinancer cut their monthly payment by $257 through a 97-bp rate reduction. Average purchase loan closed in 36.8 days in March — the fastest on record since ICE began tracking in 2019. (ICE)
• Optimal Blue’s April report: OBMMI 30-year conforming finished at 6.31% (-4 bps MoM); 10-year Treasury rose 10 bps to 4.40%, narrowing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 191 bps. Conforming share dropped below 50% of locks for the first time since tracking began (FHA 19%, VA 13%, non-conforming 17%). Non-QM held at 9% of total locks (+233 bps YoY), led by investor/DSCR and bank-statement products. MSR values rose 5 bps to 1.29% (5.16 multiple); agency MBS execution share jumped 354 bps to 44% as bulk fell 257 bps to 25%. (Optimal Blue)
• MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell 0.4% to 107.9 in April. Conventional MCAI -1.1%, government MCAI +0.4%, jumbo MCAI -1.9%, conforming MCAI -0.3%. (MBA)
• UWM countered CrossCountry’s $12 all-cash Two Harbors bid with a revised offer Monday. (HousingWire)

REGULATORY & POLICY

• Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board 51-45 Tuesday. Chairmanship vote expected later this week with Powell’s term ending Friday. (MortgagePoint)
• Fannie Mae’s retained portfolio doubled YoY to $168.7B, adding $18.3B in March alone and $36B in Q1 (from $80.3B a year earlier and $132.5B at year-end). Trump directed Fannie and Freddie to buy $200B in MBS this year, with administration sources floating a $30B–$500B IPO. Acting CEO Peter Akwaboah cited “uninterrupted liquidity” support; CFO Chryssa Halley flagged that retained-portfolio growth shifts the risk profile toward “higher-yielding investments” alongside the $4.1T Guarantee Book. Realtor.com economist Joel Berner explained the mechanism: portfolio purchases lift MBS prices, enabling new loans at lower rates. (MortgagePoint)
• ICE flags FHA stress. The national first-lien delinquency rate fell 37 bps MoM to 3.35% in March on typical seasonal patterns, but the rate remains 14 bps above year-ago levels. Serious stress rose YoY, led by FHA loans, which increased by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. (HousingWire on ICE)
• Trump renewed call for passage of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act in a Monday statement.
• FHFA newsroom flow remains quiet since the April 28 HPI release.

ECONOMIC NEWS

• April CPI: 3.81% YoY (+0.64% MoM SA, +8.0% annualized; +0.85% NSA, +10.7% annualized) — the worst YoY print since April 2023. Core CPI accelerated to +2.8% YoY (+0.38% MoM, +4.6% annualized). Core services CPI (60%+ weight in all-items) jumped 0.50% MoM (+6.2% annualized), the worst since March 2024. Energy components drove the headline: gasoline +5.4% MoM SA (+28% YoY) on the Iran conflict spike; electricity +2.1% MoM (+6.1% YoY, +44% since January 2020) on data-center demand. Food at home +0.68% MoM (+2.9% YoY, biggest monthly jump since August 2023). Airline fares +2.8% MoM (+20.7% YoY) partly on the Spirit Airlines collapse. Reuters reported economists had forecast 3.7% YoY/0.6% MoM, with the print reinforcing expectations the Fed keeps rates unchanged through year-end. (BLS; Wolf Street)
• 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.42% Tuesday, a one-week high as the CPI print landed hotter than consensus. The back-up reflects both the inflation surprise and Trump’s weekend comment that the US-Iran ceasefire is “on life support” after rejecting Tehran’s response, keeping oil and inflation expectations elevated. Markets currently price a ~27% probability of a 25-bp Fed hike at the December meeting; 2026 rate cuts have been priced out. (Trading Economics)
• NY Fed Q1 Household Debt and Credit Report (released Tuesday): total household debt rose $18B (+0.1% QoQ) to $18.8T. Mortgage balances grew $21B to $13.19T; HELOC balances rose $12B to $446B (15th consecutive quarterly increase); credit card balances fell $25B to $1.25T; auto loan balances rose $18B to $1.69T; student loan balances were essentially flat at $1.66T. Aggregate delinquency held at 4.8% of outstanding debt. Transitions into early delinquency held steady for auto loans but ticked down for credit cards (8.7% to 8.6% annualized) and mortgages (3.9% to 3.8%). (NY Fed)
• NFIB April Small Business Optimism Index (released Tuesday): rose 0.1 points to 95.9, the second consecutive month below the 52-year average of 98.0. Uncertainty Index fell 4 points to 88 (still well above the 68 historical average). Employment Index fell from 101.6 to 100.4 (second consecutive monthly decline). 18% cited labor quality as their top problem (up 3 points from March); reports of actual and planned price increases both rose, with a net 30% raising selling prices and a net 27% planning further increases — both well above historical norms. Capital expenditure plans at levels not seen since 2009. Dunkelberg flagged inflation as the dominant challenge for Main Street. (NFIB)
• HUD multifamily and healthcare lending totaled $10.95B in the first half of FY2026, up 60% YoY. FHA-insured construction loans drove the bulk of the increase. (HUD)

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE & MULTIFAMILY

• 2 World Trade Center construction restarting: Silverstein Properties is preparing to resume work on the 55-story, 1,226-foot Foster + Partners–designed supertall, the final office tower in the 16-acre WTC complex. The 1.95 million sq ft building is fully pre-leased to American Express as anchor tenant, with completion targeted for 2031. (CRE Direct; New York YIMBY)
• Durst Organization marketed up to 600,000 sq ft at 114 W 47th St for lease Monday — reportedly the largest available block of Class A office space in Midtown. Durst is offering single-tenant naming rights, with HOK reimagining the lobby and amenity space. CBRE’s Mary Ann Tighe leads the brokerage assignment. (CRE Direct; Connect CRE)
• State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio paid $85M ($400,943/unit) for the 212-unit Fynn apartment property in Elmhurst, Illinois, acquired from Lennar. CBRE represented the seller. (CRE Direct)
• Trepp April CMBS: overall delinquency edged down 1 bp to 7.54%. Multifamily rose 56 bps to a new record 7.71% (up 114 bps YoY), driven by two specific loans — one in San Francisco and one in New York City — both going 30 days delinquent. Office held essentially flat at 11.69%; lodging dropped 79 bps to 6.52%; retail fell 31 bps to 6.31%; industrial rose 31 bps to 0.96%. Five largest newly delinquent loans accounted for $1.26B of $2.63B in new delinquencies. (Connect CRE)
• CBRE expanded its U.S. asset management business, hiring Chris Doman (ex–Tishman Speyer, 8 years) to lead the practice within its property management business, and adding former EQ Office CEO Lisa Picard as senior adviser. EQ Office is now branded Perform Properties under Blackstone. (CoStar; Bisnow)
• Buc-ee’s confirmed expansion into six new states. Arizona (Goodyear, opening June 22 — 74,000 sq ft, 120 fueling positions) and Arkansas (Benton) open this year; Wisconsin, Louisiana, Kansas, and North Carolina follow in 2027–2028. The chain currently operates 55 locations across 12 states. (Bisnow)
• Apple Hospitality REIT raised 2026 RevPAR guidance and released an updated investor presentation Monday. Q1 comparable hotels RevPAR rose 2.2% to $115; occupancy +2.1 pts to 73%; full-year RevPAR guidance raised 100 bps at the midpoint. Full-year net income guidance midpoint lifted $9M to $142.5M–$169.4M. Company added forward-purchase agreements for hotels in Anchorage and Las Vegas. (Apple Hospitality investor materials via TipRanks)

INDUSTRY NEWS

• REPAY appointed Matt Morrow as head of consumer payments effective Tuesday, with a mandate to expand mortgage-servicer integrations.
• ICE Mortgage Technology’s Bob Hart — accompanying the May Monitor release — flagged that integrated data and technology are central to navigating both first-time buyer financing and proactive portfolio risk management as conditions shift. (ICE)
• Blend Labs Q1 results: non-GAAP operating income of $4.1M vs. $0.7M YoY; 15 new deals signed; Background Agents tool live with 22 lenders in production, processing 7,000+ applications in preview. (HousingWire)
• HousingWire — “What lenders are really saying about efficiency in 2026” (Flávia Furlan Nunes; outside the 48-hour freshness window — published late April, included per your request). The piece reports that efficiency has shifted from a planning theme to an execution demand, with lenders moving past the AI-as-disruption framing toward specific use cases (manual data entry reduction, decisioning consistency), credit cost control, verification workflow consolidation, and end-to-end workflow automation. “Human in the loop” framing dominates AI deployment conversations. (HousingWire)