Daily Dose of Real Estate for May 22

Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed sat at 6.70% on Thursday after touching a nine-month high of 6.75% Tuesday and recovering Wednesday on headlines that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a peace deal – headlines that have moved markets in both directions for several weeks now. The April FOMC minutes released Wednesday showed a majority of participants viewing a rate hike as “likely appropriate” if inflation runs persistently above 2%, and traders now price December hike odds above 50%. MBA applications fell 2.3% for the fifth straight week. Scion Group and Ares paid Harrison Street $910 million for a 7,578-bed student housing portfolio, the largest sector deal of 2026, on the theory that college enrollment at flagship universities is a more reliable cash flow than most other things in commercial real estate right now. Wolf Richter’s Q1 consumer credit analysis found credit card delinquencies at 2.92%, the lowest since 2023, and the revolving-credit-to-income ratio at 7.72% — useful context for anyone arguing the consumer is about to crack. Barney Frank died Tuesday at 86, the same week the House passed its biggest housing bill since the law that bears his name.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• House passes amended 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, 396–13. Trump’s institutional-investor sell mandate stripped; bill heads back to the Senate. Spoiler, the Senate added the mandate in the first place.
• CFPB’s new DC headquarters sized for ~550 employees, matching Vought’s plan to halve the agency’s remaining workforce.
• FOMC April minutes (released 5/20) lean hawkish. A majority of participants saw a hike as “likely appropriate” if inflation runs persistently above 2%; market-implied odds of a December hike now above 50%.
• MND 30-year fixed at 6.70% on 5/21, recovering from Tuesday’s 9-month high of 6.75% on Iran peace-deal headlines.
• Housing starts fell 2.8% in April to a 1.465M annualized rate; single-family down 9%, multifamily up 14.3%.
• Pending home sales rose 1.4% in April (NAR), up 3.2% year over year — Northeast led, South declined.
• MBA applications fell 2.3% for the week ending 5/15, the fifth straight weekly decline; purchase apps –4.1%.
• HUD releases State and Local Best Practices for Home Construction, a deregulation roadmap targeting permit fees, code add-ons, and inspection timelines.
• Scion Group and Ares JV acquires 7,578-bed student housing portfolio for $910M from Harrison Street — largest student-housing deal of 2026.
• AEI Housing Center publishes San Francisco case study: city needs ~10,000 units/year, has only ~3,000 under construction, and the “shortage is largely self-inflicted.”
• Wolf Street: Q1 credit card 30-day delinquencies fell to 2.92%, lowest since Q2 2023; revolving credit-to-income ratio dipped to 7.72%.
• Barney Frank, co-author of Dodd-Frank, dies at 86. The architect of the CFPB and post-crisis financial reform passed at his home in Maine on May 19.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Housing Starts Slip 2.8% in April; Single-Family Drags, Multifamily Surges. Privately-owned housing starts came in at a 1.465 million SAAR, with single-family down 9% to 930,000 and multifamily up 14.3% to 529,000, per joint Census–HUD data released May 21. Permits rose 5.8% from March to 1.442 million. Census Bureau
• Pending Home Sales Rose 1.4% in April; Up 3.2% YoY. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index hit 74.8, with gains in the Northeast (+6.6%), Midwest, and West, and a 0.7% decline in the South. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun cited “cautious optimism” despite higher mortgage rates. NAR
• AEI: San Francisco’s Housing Shortage Is “Largely Self-Inflicted.” AEI Housing Center Senior Fellow Tobias Peter’s new case study, released May 21, finds San Francisco needs roughly 10,000 housing units per year but has only about 3,000 under construction against a stated 74,000-unit pipeline. The report calls for by-right approval, allowing greater density, and a “Keep It Short and Simple” permitting framework. AEI
• Single-Family Starts Decline Highlights Builder Pressure. First American’s Odeta Kushi said the April report “does not suggest a sharp deterioration” but NAHB’s Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington warned rising 10-year yields and diesel costs will likely keep construction under pressure. The South posted the steepest regional drop, –11%. HousingWire
• Pending Sales Tracker Shows Continued Momentum into May. HousingWire Data recorded 430,175 pending single-family home sales as of May 15, up 4.9% YoY; new pending sales for the week were up 6.1% annually. Minneapolis–St. Paul, Miami, Phoenix, and DFW led metro gains. HousingWire
• HUD Releases Deregulation Roadmap to Cut Per-Unit Build Costs. HUD’s “State and Local Best Practices for Home Construction” report, issued May 20 in response to the March 13 EO, targets fee caps, code add-ons, by-right development, and inspection timelines, citing regulatory costs above $100,000 per new single-family home and up to $30,000 from some energy mandates. HUD

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• MND 30-Year Fixed at 6.70% on May 21, Recovering After Tuesday’s 6.75% Spike. Mortgage News Daily’s top-tier 30-year rate dipped slightly from Wednesday’s 6.67% as Iran-peace-deal headlines pulled bond yields lower; Tuesday had marked a fresh 9-month high. The average lender erased Tuesday’s losses on Wednesday before stabilizing. Mortgage News Daily
• Applications Fall 2.3% in MBA Survey for Week Ending May 15. Purchase applications dropped 4.1% and refis edged down 0.1%, the fifth straight weekly decline. The MBA 30-year conforming rate rose to 6.56%, a seven-week high; Joel Kan cited “ongoing concerns around inflation from higher fuel costs combined with rising concerns over global public debt.” MBA
• April New Home Purchase Applications Fell 2.4%. MBA’s Builder Application Survey, released May 19, showed new home mortgage applications down 2.4% year over year and 7% from March, reflecting builder sensitivity to the rate spike. MBA
• Ginnie Mae and FHA Signal End in Sight on Delinquency Reporting Pressure. At MBA’s secondary and capital markets conference, Ginnie President Joseph Gormley said pressure on issuers tied to FHA’s post-pandemic loss-mitigation waterfall change is expected to ease later this year; the agency has granted threshold exceptions to relieve buyout strain on issuer liquidity. National Mortgage News
• MND Highlights GSE MBS Demand as Mortgage-Rate Shock Absorber. Mortgage Rate Watch noted that Fannie and Freddie’s expanded purchases of agency MBS have kept the spread between 10-year Treasuries and the 30-year rate narrower than in 2025, when Treasuries at current levels coincided with 7%-plus mortgage rates. Mortgage News Daily

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• House Speaker Johnson Moved ROAD Act Under Suspension of Rules; All 13 No Votes Were Republican. Speaker Mike Johnson fast-tracked H.R. 6644 under suspension of the rules, requiring two-thirds support and bypassing certain procedural hurdles. All 13 dissenting votes came from Republicans who backed Trump’s call to force institutional investors to sell single-family build-to-rent properties after seven years. The Senate first passed the bill 89-10 on March 12; the House-amended version now returns to the Senate. National Mortgage Professional
• MBA, CHLA, and NAR Endorse Amended Package; Warren Warns Changes “Kill the Bill.” The Mortgage Bankers Association credited Chair French Hill and Ranking Member Maxine Waters for addressing trade-group concerns, while the Community Home Lenders of America praised inclusion of Section 301 and NAR called it a “meaningful and bipartisan step.” Senator Elizabeth Warren countered that softening the institutional-investor restrictions “kills the bill” and accused House Republicans of trying to gut what Trump had explicitly endorsed. National Mortgage Professional
• CFPB’s New DC Headquarters Sized for Stripped-Down Agency. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is set to move to a new building in Washington’s southwest quadrant with capacity for roughly 550 employees — closely matching acting chief Russell Vought’s March court-filed plan to cut the agency to 556 staff, down from 1,100 currently and roughly 1,700 before the layoffs began. The opening is expected to coincide with a return-to-office order that could trigger additional departures from staff currently working remotely or based outside the DC area. Bloomberg Law
• Cato: House Strips “Some of the Worst” Senate Provisions. Cato’s Norbert Michel credited Chairman French Hill and Ranking Member Maxine Waters for removing the seven-year sell mandate and broadening BTR exemptions, calling the Senate’s institutional-investor “ban” a Trump White House priority that would have shrunk rental supply. Cato
• HUD Issues Deregulation Roadmap for States and Localities. HUD’s State and Local Best Practices report, released May 20, recommends fee caps, code add-on limits, faster permitting, and broader by-right development to implement Trump’s March 13 executive order. Secretary Scott Turner framed it as a starting point “to remove unnecessary burdens to home construction.” HUD
• FOMC April 28–29 Minutes Released, Lean Hawkish. “A majority of participants” said further rate firming “would likely become appropriate” if inflation runs persistently above 2%; “many participants” preferred removing the statement’s easing bias. Options markets implied roughly a 30% probability of a hike by Q1 2027. Federal Reserve
• NAHB Commends HUD Best Practices Report. Chairman Bill Owens called the report “a practical framework for removing unnecessary regulations that drive up housing costs,” citing streamlined permits and cost-effective building codes. NAHB
• Barney Frank, Architect of Dodd-Frank and CFPB, Dies at 86. The former House Financial Services Chairman, who co-authored the post-crisis financial reform law and helped create the CFPB, died May 19 at his home in Ogunquit, Maine, after receiving hospice care for congestive heart failure. Washington Post

ECONOMIC NEWS

• April FOMC Minutes Show December-Hike Probability Climbing. Per Forex.com analysis, Bloomberg’s sentiment score scored the minutes as the most hawkish since July 2023; CME FedWatch showed traders pricing a December hike above 50%, with January 2027 odds at 58%. Forex.com
• Wolf Street: Credit Card Delinquencies Continue Declining in Q1 2026. Wolf Richter’s Q1 deep-dive (May 20) reports the 30-day credit-card delinquency rate at all commercial banks fell to 2.92% seasonally adjusted, the lowest since Q2 2023 and down from 3.06% a year ago; the prime 60-plus day rate dipped to 0.94%, below pre-pandemic lows. Total revolving consumer credit fell $26 billion to $1.81 trillion, and the revolving-credit-to-disposable-income ratio dipped to 7.72%. Wolf Street
• Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 209,000 for Week Ending May 16. Claims came in roughly in line with the 210,000 consensus; continuing claims rose 6,000 to 1.782 million. The data extend the run of labor-market stability that gives the Fed room to remain restrictive. DOL
• 10-Year Treasury Eases on Iran De-escalation Hopes. The 10-year yield held below 4.6% Thursday after a sharp Wednesday decline; oil prices dropped as President Trump said U.S.–Iran negotiations are in their “final stages.” Markets still expect no Fed cut through year-end, with hike odds in December around 50%. Trading Economics
• Fed Officials’ Hawkish Pivot Crystallizes. RISMedia summarized the minutes: the Fed agreed lower rates would be appropriate only if disinflation resumes, but “a majority…highlighted that some policy firming would likely become appropriate” should inflation stay above 2%. The April hold passed 8–4, the widest dissent since October 1992. RISMedia
• MND: Recovery Conditional on Iran Outcome. Mortgage News Daily’s Wednesday note observed that the rate retreat “reiterates the fact that rates will likely make an even better recovery when the war is officially over.” Mortgage News Daily

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• Scion Group and Ares Acquire $910M, 7,578-Bed Student Housing Portfolio. The 12-property portfolio across 10 states — including assets near University of Florida, Auburn, Ohio State, Notre Dame, James Madison, and Arizona State — was sold by Harrison Street Asset Management at roughly $120,000 per bed. It is the largest U.S. student-housing trade of 2026 to date. Bisnow
• Walker & Dunlop Brokers Scion–Ares Financing; BMO Leads. Walker & Dunlop’s debt and structured finance team, including Dustin Stolly, Aaron Appel, and Jonathan Schwartz, brokered the financing led by BMO. Harrison Street CEO Christopher Merrill cited “durable fundamentals, constrained new supply and strong enrollment trends” at flagship universities. Commercial Observer
• Chicago Downtown Office Pipeline Hits Zero for First Time Since 2012. Bisnow reported no active downtown office projects under construction in the Loop, a milestone reflecting persistent demand concerns and tight financing for new build. Bisnow
• Multifamily Starts Hit Three-Year High Despite Single-Family Drop. April starts in buildings with 5+ units came in at 514,000, sustaining the gradual multifamily recovery as agency lenders remain active and rent growth turned modestly positive in Q1 per Arbor and NMHC data. Arbor
• House ROAD Act Vote Lifts BTR Outlook. Bisnow framed the bill as “BTR-friendly,” noting that the stripped-out seven-year sell mandate had threatened to reduce rental supply by 40,000–72,000 units per year, per industry estimates. Affordable Housing Finance
• Healthcare REITs Lead REIT Multiples. S&P Global Market Intelligence data published May 20 showed the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Health Care Index trading at 57.24x price-to-LTM-FFO, far above the Equity All REIT Index at 24.11x; Welltower posted the highest multiple at 74.3x. Commercial Property Executive

INDUSTRY NEWS

• Scion Crosses 105,000-Bed Mark with Ares JV. Founded in 1999, The Scion Group now operates 161 communities in 90 U.S. markets, positioning it as the world’s largest off-campus student-housing owner. Ares Real Estate manages roughly $117 billion in AUM. BusinessWire
• Harrison Street Signals More Strategic Portfolio Sales. HSAM CEO Christopher Merrill said the firm will “continue to invest in high-quality student housing properties near leading universities, while evaluating strategic portfolio sales that deliver compelling outcomes.” Since 2005, HSAM has invested over $24 billion across 431 student housing properties. Commercial Observer
• Trimont Named MBA Commercial Educator of the Year. MBA Education presented Trimont with its 2026 Commercial Educator of the Year Award on May 19, recognizing the servicing platform’s training programs for CRE professionals. MBA
• PGIM Real Estate Fund Acquires Bronx Housing Community. PGIM disclosed a Bronx multifamily acquisition on May 20 as part of broader institutional repositioning into agency-financed urban rental assets. The Middle Market
• Industry Reaction to Frank’s Passing. Senator Elizabeth Warren called Frank “the gravelly-voiced, smart-as-a-whip congressman who fought hard to get the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over the finish line.” Frank chaired House Financial Services from 2007 to 2011 and co-authored the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. NBC Boston