Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for May 28

Mortgage rates spent the week so far lurching on headlines on the Iran war, with the average 30-year fixed settling at 6.61% after a 4 bp Tuesday decline (4 bps is 4 bps…still a W). Prime example, Wednesday’s bond market rally tied to an Iran state-TV-leaked peace framework that commits to restoring Hormuz commercial traffic within a month. The MBA Weekly Survey exposed the prior week’s carnage, with applications down 8.5% and refis off 18%. The AEI Housing Center released March origination data showing GSE appraisal waivers climbing back to 28%, with Fannie’s recent expansion to 80-90% CLTV purchase loans now running at 9% waiver use, up from 2% last February (appraisals have gotten awfully expensive).

The CFPB story is a fascinating one. Bloomberg Law reported that the Bureau – the same Bureau that the administration has spent the past year trying to defund, depopulate, and partially reassign to DOJ – sent supervisory questionnaires to at least four certified CDFI loan funds, a category that has historically sat outside CFPB supervision entirely. The questionnaires were reportedly ordered by political appointees, not career staff, and arrived while the administration is simultaneously trying to slash the CDFI Fund itself. Two Harbors’ reconvened shareholder vote on the CrossCountry $12-per-share all-cash deal hits Thursday at 10 a.m. ET, and UWMC’s competing $12.50 offer remains on the table. The TWO board continues to unanimously recommend CCM, but analysts have already flagged that CCM will likely need to raise its bid — so this cake ain’t baked yet. The asset everyone is fighting over is RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing and roughly $176 billion in MSRs — recurring servicing income being the thing every nonbank has decided it needs more of, regardless of what it has to overpay to get it.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

AEI Housing Center’s April 2026 HPA Index came in at 0.8% YoY (-2.9% inflation-adjusted), the lowest reading since the series began in 2013 and a clear reversion-to-mean signal.
Mortgage applications dropped 8.5% as the 30-year contract rate hit 6.65%, a nine-month high, with refinances plunging 18% (MBA, week ending May 22).
Mortgage News Daily’s average 30-year fixed sits at 6.61%, with bonds rallying on an Iran peace framework draft committing to restoring Hormuz commercial traffic within a month.
FDIC Q1 2026 Quarterly Banking Profile: industry net income $80.5 billion, ROA 1.26%, with strong capital and liquidity; community bank earnings up 3.9% sequentially.
AEI: GSE appraisal waivers reached 28% in March 2026, up sequentially as Fannie’s expanded eligibility for 80-90% CLTV purchase loans now sees 9% waiver use (up from 2% in February 2025).
Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan warned from Tokyo that global oil and gas consumption may need to fall further if Hormuz shipping doesn’t normalize, citing limited U.S. shale offset.
CFPB issued supervisory questionnaires to at least four CDFIs, expanding scrutiny into a loan-fund category not previously subject to Bureau supervision.
NYC Mayor Mamdani unveiled “Block by Block,” a $22 billion, 10-year plan to build 200,000 new affordable units and preserve 200,000 more.
Trepp’s April CMBS delinquency edged down one basis point to 7.54%, but multifamily surged 56 bps to a new 7.71% high on two large NY/SF loans.
S&P 500 closed at a record 7,519.12 on May 26 as Iran peace progress pulled forward rate-cut expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.48%.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

AEI Housing Center publishes April HPA Index at series low. Preliminary year-over-year HPA was 0.8% in April 2026 (-2.9% inflation-adjusted), down from 1.5% in March and well below the 4.5% April 2019 reading, with Pinto, Peter, and Li attributing the reversion to pandemic-era price elevation, post-2022 rates, and a thinning entry-level buyer pool. AEI
Realtor.com sees April market conditions improving for buyers. April marked the 30th consecutive month of annual inventory gains while median list prices fell 1.4% year-over-year — a six-month streak of price declines with homes also sitting longer on the market. National Mortgage Professional
NYC Mayor Mamdani unveils “Block by Block” housing plan. The plan targets 200,000 new affordable homes and preservation of 200,000 more over a decade, backed by $22 billion in capital over five years and the largest NYCHA investment in recent history. NYC Mayor’s Office
April new home sales release scheduled for May 28. Census and HUD will release April new residential sales data Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET; the March 2026 SAAR was 682,000 at a median price of $387,400. HUD
Spring buying season holding ground despite Iran-driven volatility. Realtor.com’s May 21 progress report found contract signings and new listings in the 50 largest metros tracked above 2023, 2024, and 2025 spring paces, even with mortgage rates pushing up in the back half of the quarter. Real Estate News

MORTGAGE MARKETS

MND average 30-year fixed at 6.61% after Tuesday’s 4 bp decline. Rates moved lower on weekend Iran peace-framework reporting; Wednesday’s bond rally on Iran state TV’s leaked draft (Hormuz commercial traffic restored within a month) sent 10-year yields toward 4.46%. Mortgage News Daily
Wednesday morning’s bond rally tied to peace-deal traction. MND’s morning commentary noted bond yields dropped about 2 bps and MBS rallied an eighth on the framework details, with the market treating the deal as “probably near the actual finish line.” Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage applications down 8.5% as 30-year hit 6.65%. Per the MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending May 22, refinance applications dropped 18% and purchase applications slipped 0.4%; the 30-year fixed has climbed 30 basis points over five weeks to its highest level since August 2025. HousingWire
Refinance share fell to 38%, the lowest since June 2025. CNBC reported the average purchase loan size hit a survey high of $473,600 as smaller-balance borrowers backed off; VA refinance applications dropped 34% on the week. CNBC
AEI: GSE appraisal waivers climbed to 28% in March 2026. Combined Fannie/Freddie waiver share rose sequentially (Fannie 25%, Freddie 32%) with the increase driven by higher waiver rates within each loan purpose plus a modest shift toward refi activity; Fannie’s Q1 2025 expansion to 80-90% CLTV purchase loans now shows 9% waiver usage, up from 2% in February 2025. AEI

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

FDIC releases Q1 2026 Quarterly Banking Profile. Industry aggregate net income of $80.5 billion and ROA of 1.26% — a $2.8 billion sequential increase — with capital and liquidity characterized as supportive of lending and loss absorption. FDIC
CFPB expanding supervisory reach into CDFIs. Bloomberg Law reported the Bureau issued supervisory questionnaires to at least four certified CDFI loan funds last month — institutions not previously subject to CFPB supervision — with the questionnaires ordered by political appointees at a time the administration is seeking to slash the CDFI Fund. PYMNTS
Dallas Fed’s Logan delivers Hormuz oil warning at Tokyo BOJ conference. Logan said U.S. production cannot fill the gap from the Hormuz disruption (nearly 13 million bpd, more than 10% of global supply), citing capital discipline, labor and equipment shortages, and limited West Texas pipeline capacity. Dallas Fed
NYC’s Mamdani plan sets municipal benchmark. The plan overhauls code enforcement, commits $5.6 billion to NYCHA over five years, and gut-renovates 25,000 public housing units starting with Nostrand Houses and Bronx River Addition. 6sqft
Independent Institute argues federal housing bills won’t move the needle. A Hill op-ed published May 26 from a Texas Tech free-market scholar makes the case that interstate migration to lower-regulation Sun Belt and Midwest markets — not Congress — drives affordability outcomes, with Q1 median sales at $403,000 (nearly 5x median income). Independent Institute

ECONOMIC NEWS

S&P 500 closed at a record 7,519.12 on May 26. The broad index gained 0.61% and the Nasdaq added 1.19% to 26,656.18 as Iran peace prospects lifted chip stocks and traders weighed reduced near-term inflation risk. CNBC
10-year Treasury yield down to 4.48% on May 27, near two-week low. Investors priced down near-term Fed rate-hike odds on peace progress while still awaiting upcoming PCE inflation data for the Committee’s policy trajectory. Trading Economics
Fed’s Lorie Logan warns of oil-supply realities ahead of summer. Dallas Fed’s energy executive survey shows U.S. producers expect only up to 250,000 bpd of additional output by year-end and 500,000 bpd in 2027 — covering roughly 2% of the supply gap in 2026 and 4% in 2027. Yahoo Finance
FOMC futures pricing pushed back to October. Per CME FedWatch as of May 22, market-implied timing for the next quarter-point Fed move has shifted to the October 28 meeting, with inflation risks from energy still the dominant constraint on the Committee. Seeking Alpha
Iran peace framework reportedly nearing finish line. Per MND’s read of Iran state-TV-leaked draft details, the key inclusion is commitment to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz within one month — the market-relevant detail driving bond and MBS performance this week. Mortgage News Daily

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Trepp CMBS delinquency drops 1 bp to 7.54% in April. Three of five major property types declined; lodging fell 79 bps to 6.52% and retail dropped 31 bps to 6.31%, while industrial added 31 bps to 0.96% on a single portfolio loan going 30 days delinquent. Connect CRE
Multifamily delinquency hit a new high at 7.71% in April. The 56-basis-point jump was driven primarily by two large multifamily loans — one in San Francisco and one in New York City — both going 30 days delinquent. Connect CRE
Wall Street’s apartment buying spree accelerating across the Sun Belt. CRE Daily’s May 26 reporting describes institutional capital aggressively pursuing multifamily acquisitions in Sun Belt markets with soaring rents, even as oversupply persists in submarkets like Austin, Dallas, and Phoenix. CRE Daily
Soho office trade closes the bid-ask gap. Capstone Equities took 140 Crosby Street at $51.4 million — well above the $38.8 million Madison Capital/Vornado paid in 2016 — after Capstone took the debt last summer and foreclosed, marking the largest NYC trade recorded May 26. The Real Deal
Mansion-tax policies catching multifamily and commercial in the crosshairs. A CRE Daily May 26 piece flags state and local mansion-tax regimes — initially designed for high-end single-family — increasingly applying to multifamily and commercial development transactions. CRE Daily

INDUSTRY NEWS

Two Harbors shareholder vote on CrossCountry merger reconvenes May 28. The MSR-focused REIT’s adjourned special meeting reconvenes virtually at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday after the May 19 session failed to secure stockholder approval for CrossCountry’s $12 cash deal, with UWMC’s competing $12.50 cash/stock-election offer still on the table. Scotsman Guide
CFPB CDFI questionnaires signal new supervisory front. The supervisory questionnaires were ordered by top political appointees at a Bureau facing both potential funding lapse and a hostile administration posture toward CDFIs — a categorical expansion that may face legal challenges. PYMNTS
Capstone Equities completes Soho office takeover. The roughly $51.4 million transaction reflects a year-long workout — Capstone bought the loan last summer, foreclosed on Madison Capital/Vornado, and now owns the 32,300-square-foot building outright. The Real Deal
FDIC Q1 banking aggregates set the operating backdrop for mortgage and CRE lenders. Aggregate domestic deposits up $389.7 billion sequentially (a seventh straight quarterly increase), the Problem Bank List declined to 54 institutions, and 4.9% of community banks were unprofitable — supportive context for warehouse and CRE credit. FDIC
NYC plan implications for institutional housing investors. Mamdani’s “Block by Block” includes overhauling tenant-complaint response and the city’s housing maintenance code, escalating enforcement against repeat-offender landlords — a signal worth tracking for lenders, insurers, and operators with NYC exposure. 6sqft