Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for June 4

Bill Pulte is still “acting Director of National Intelligence.” Rates continue to do their part to ruin the spring market: Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed hit 6.61% on June 3, near a nine-month high, as renewed Middle East bombing headlines moved bonds. Rates did their part to ruin the spring market: Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed hit 6.61% on June 3, near a nine-month high, as renewed Middle East bombing headlines moved bonds. Applications fell 2.5% for a third straight week, list prices dropped 2.4% year over year (steepest since 2017), and AEI clocked nominal home-price growth at 0.8% — which, once you net out 3.8% inflation, becomes 50 of 55 large metros falling in real terms. Redfin noted sellers pulling 5.8% of listings off the market, the most since the pandemic froze everything in March 2020, and the “crucial spring selling season,” as Wolf Street put it, wound down with a whimper.

The labor data refused to cooperate with the rate-cut thesis: ADP added 122,000 jobs (best since January 2025), JOLTS openings jumped to 7.6 million, and ISM Services expanded to 54.5%. And a near-certain Fed hold at the June meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh digests the contradictory inflation and employment data. MBA’s Q1 commercial delinquency rates were mixed — the CMBS rate rose to 7.28% and Fannie Mae’s edged up to 0.78%, while Freddie Mac and banks held steady. And the nearly 2-point jump in FHA serious delinquencies since October turned out to be roughly 92% a reporting change — loans now stay flagged delinquent through a three-month trial-payment plan instead of being marked current the moment a borrower enters loss mitigation.

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Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Trump named FHFA Director Bill Pulte acting Director of National Intelligence; he keeps his FHFA and Fannie/Freddie chairmanships, and analysts flagged any FHFA exit as a possible positive for GSE privatization.
Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed index rose to 6.61% on June 3, near its highest in more than nine months, as renewed Middle East bombing headlines pushed bonds lower.
Realtor.com’s May report showed median list prices down 2.4% year over year — the steepest drop in its data since 2017 — even as pending sales rose for a sixth straight month.
AEI pegged April home-price appreciation at just 0.8% year over year (a series low), with 50 of 55 large metros negative in real terms after 3.8% inflation.
Redfin reported 5.8% of listings were pulled in April, tied for the highest delisting share since March 2020, as the spring season fizzled.
Mortgage applications fell 2.5% (week ending May 29), a third straight weekly decline, with purchase volume near multi-year lows.
ADP showed private payrolls up 122,000 in May (strongest since January 2025) and JOLTS openings jumped to 7.6 million, signaling continued labor demand.
ISM Services expanded to 54.5%, but employment contracted for a third straight month and prices stayed elevated; markets price a near-certain June 16–17 Fed hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Q1 commercial mortgage delinquencies were mixed, with CMBS (7.28%) and Fannie Mae rising while Freddie Mac and banks held steady or improved.
AEI attributed most of the recent jump in FHA serious delinquencies to a reporting-method change rather than deteriorating borrower health.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

List prices post the steepest drop since 2017 as buyers re-engage. Realtor.com’s May Monthly Housing Trends Report showed median list prices down 2.4% year over year, while pending sales rose for a sixth straight month and new listings hit their highest May level since 2022; inventory growth flipped regionally, surging in the Northeast and Midwest while stalling across the South and West. Realtor.com
Home-price growth slid to a series low in April. The AEI Housing Center’s May indicators put preliminary year-over-year HPA at 0.8% — the lowest since the series began in 2013 — with the metro spread running from Milwaukee (+7.8%) to Memphis (−6.4%); after accounting for 3.8% inflation, 50 of the 55 largest metros showed negative real price growth, and AEI’s base case is roughly flat prices for full-year 2026. AEI Housing Center
Sellers are delisting at near-record rates. Redfin reported 5.8% of U.S. listings were taken off the market in April — tied with December 2025 for the highest share since March 2020 — as homeowners who can’t get their price pull back in a buyer’s market. Redfin/BusinessWire
The spring selling season ended with a whimper. Wolf Street noted purchase-mortgage applications have wobbled near rock-bottom — down about 35% from the same week in 2019, now in their fourth year of collapse — even though, with inflation near 4%, the “real” 30-year mortgage rate of roughly 2.8% is low by historical standards. Wolf Street
The lock-in effect keeps capping demand. With the weighted-average rate on outstanding mortgages around 4.3% per Cotality, the typical owner would face a roughly 2-point jump (about $350 more a month on a median home) to move and refinance at today’s rates, leaving 2026 sales heavily dependent on where rates go. Builder & Developer

MORTGAGE MARKETS

30-year fixed near a nine-month high. Mortgage News Daily’s daily index put the average 30-year fixed at 6.61% on June 3 (up 0.04), close to its highest in more than nine months, with rates tracking oil prices and renewed Iran-conflict headlines that pushed MBS lower. Mortgage News Daily
Applications drop for a third straight week. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey showed total volume down 2.5% for the week ending May 29, with purchases off 3% and refinances off 2% (still up 20% year over year); MBA’s Joel Kan said purchase activity ran at its slowest pace since April and refinances at their weakest since last June. HousingWire
FHA delinquency spike is mostly a measurement artifact. AEI found FHA serious delinquency rates jumped nearly 2 percentage points between October 2025 and February 2026, but attributed roughly 92% of the increase (citing the Center for Responsible Lending) to a reporting change — loans now stay flagged delinquent through a three-month trial payment plan — rather than deteriorating fundamentals, noting most seriously delinquent FHA borrowers still hold strong equity (median about $96,700). AEI Housing Center

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Pulte tapped as acting intelligence chief while keeping housing-finance reins. President Trump named FHFA Director Bill Pulte acting Director of National Intelligence, succeeding Tulsi Gabbard, with Pulte retaining his roles as FHFA Director and chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; KBW’s Bose George wrote that an eventual Pulte exit from FHFA could be read as a positive for GSE privatization. HousingWire
The appointment drew bipartisan pushback. Democrats and the Senate’s top Republican criticized the move given Pulte’s lack of intelligence experience; it also concentrates unusual authority in an official whose prior mortgage-fraud referral against Fed Governor Lisa Cook is now pending before the Supreme Court. CNBC

ECONOMIC NEWS

Private payrolls beat expectations. ADP reported employers added 122,000 private jobs in May — the strongest month since January 2025 and above the ~110,000 consensus — with gains across eight of ten sectors; pay rose 4.4% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers, while information services lost 9,000 in a possible AI signal. CNBC
Job openings surge to a near two-year high. The April JOLTS report showed openings up 731,000 to 7.6 million, the most since November 2024, with quits (3.0 million) and layoffs (1.7 million) little changed — pointing to continued labor demand despite Iran-driven energy costs. BLS
Services growth picks up, but hiring and prices flash caution. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5% in May (its 23rd straight month of expansion) on stronger business activity and new orders, yet the employment index contracted for a third consecutive month and the prices index stayed elevated — a stagflation-tinged mix. ISM/PR Newswire
Data reinforces a June Fed hold. With hiring resilient and inflation sticky from elevated oil, futures now price a near-certain hold at 3.50–3.75% at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — ahead of Friday’s May payrolls report (consensus ~+80,000). PrimeRates

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Q1 commercial delinquencies mixed by capital source. MBA’s latest Commercial Delinquency Report showed CMBS delinquencies climbing to 7.28% (30+ days or REO) and Fannie Mae rising to 0.78% (60+ days), while Freddie Mac (0.43%) edged down and banks/thrifts (1.24%) and life companies (0.38%) stayed broadly stable; MBA’s Reggie Booker tied the CMBS and Fannie pressure to higher borrowing costs and refinancing challenges. MBA NewsLink