Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for June 8

Stagflation gives way to “strongflation” as the May jobs report knocked it over the fence with 172,000 payrolls against an 80,000 estimate — prior months were revised up 93,000 (very strong), and unemployment held at 4.3%, which the market promptly decided was bad news for interest rates: the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.66%, the 2-year Treasury hit its highest since February 2025, and the odds of a June Fed cut fell to roughly one-in-three (not the worst odds). Inflation is reportedly tracking above 4%, double the 2% target it has now exceeded for more than five years, so the bond market is pricing hikes rather than cuts and leaving newly installed Chair Warsh to explain why that isn’t his problem. Weakness is bleeding into the housing market: home list prices fell 2.4% year over year, sellers pulled 5.8% of listings off the market, flippers booked their thinnest profits since 2008, and foreclosure starts rose 26% even as headline delinquencies held at 3.35%.

The administration confirmed that the Fannie and Freddie share offering is still on the table, still not urgent, and still tied to GSE stocks down 30% on the year, while FHFA Director Pulte picked up a second full-time job running national intelligence as acting DNI. The CFPB used June 8 to remind lenders that immigration status may now belong in ability-to-repay calculations. Commercial real estate contributed CMBS delinquencies at 7.28% and a $2 billion private-equity purchase of the country’s second-largest residential property manager, and proptech raised another $15.8 million to apply AI to leasing.

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Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

May payrolls blew past expectations at +172,000, with March and April revised up a combined +93,000 — the strongest three-month stretch in over two years.
Mortgage rates jumped after the jobs print: MND’s 30-year fixed rose 8 bps to 6.66% Friday.
The 2-year Treasury hit its highest since February 2025 as the bond market repriced toward rate hikes and inflation above 4%.)
Markets now price roughly a 65% chance the Fed holds at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.
CFPB tells lenders they may need to weigh immigration status in ability-to-repay determinations in new June 8 guidance.
Trump says a Fannie/Freddie public offering remains on the table with “no rush,” even as GSE shares sit down ~30% year-to-date.
Pulte’s acting-DNI appointment clouds the FHFA/GSE-reform agenda, though he retains his housing roles.
Realtor.com’s May report shows list prices down 2.4% year-over-year — the steepest drop since 2017 — while pending sales rose for a sixth straight month.
Foreclosure starts jumped ~26% year-over-year even as the overall delinquency rate held near 3.35%.
Home-flipping profits fell to their lowest since 2008 as margins tightened and flip volume hit a five-year low.
CMBS delinquencies climbed to 7.28%, the highest among commercial capital sources, and New Mountain agreed to buy property manager Asset Living for $2B+.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

List prices post steepest drop since 2017 as buyers re-engage. Realtor.com’s May report shows median list prices fell 2.4% year over year — the steepest decline in Realtor.com data since 2017 — while pending sales rose for a sixth straight month and new listings hit their highest May level since 2022. Realtor.com / PR Newswire PR Newswire
Sellers pull homes off the market at the fastest pace since the pandemic. Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, tying December for the highest share of delistings since March 2020, as buyer-seller price standoffs persist. Atlanta saw the highest share delisted at roughly 1 in 10, with San Jose close behind. CNBC CNBCCNBC
Home-flipping profits sink to lowest since 2008. Attom’s year-end report counted 297,045 home flips in 2025 — down 3.9% from 2024 and the fewest since 2020 — accounting for 7.4% of all home sales, with the typical flip returning $65,981 in gross profit as margins tightened. Scotsman Guide scotsmanguide
Pending sales edged higher despite the standoff. Signed contracts on existing homes rose 1.4% in April from March, according to the National Association of Realtors, likely aided by inventory that was up nearly 6% month over month. Business Insider Business Insider

MORTGAGE MARKETS

Rates jump after strong jobs report. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed rose 0.08 to 6.66% on Friday, June 5, with the 15-year fixed at 6.13%, as the labor data pushed yields higher. Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily
Bonds sold off but stabilized into the close. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.53% after the report; MND’s recap framed Friday’s action as a rout that at least didn’t worsen late in the day. Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily
Delinquencies hold steady, but foreclosure starts climb. ICE’s April First Look showed the national delinquency rate flat at 3.35% and still below pre-pandemic levels, even as foreclosure starts jumped nearly 26% year over year to 37,000 and active foreclosures rose 32% to 276,000. One servicing expert called it “normalization” while urging lenders to prepare as late-stage delinquencies creep up. Mortgage Professional America mpamag
Application volume pulled back modestly. The MBA’s latest weekly survey showed mortgage applications easing, per Mortgage News Daily’s coverage of the data. Mortgage News Daily
“What’s moving rates?” MND’s pipeline commentary tied the week’s move squarely to labor-market resilience and the bond market’s reaction heading into the June FOMC. Mortgage News Daily

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

CFPB tells lenders to weigh immigration status in ability-to-repay calls. In a statement published June 8, the CFPB reminded creditors that Truth in Lending Act and Regulation Z ability-to-repay rules may obligate consideration of a borrower’s immigration status where risk of removal could disrupt U.S.-based employment income. Issued consistent with Executive Order 14406 and signed by Acting Director Russell Vought, the guidance carries no force of law but warns that failing to account for a reasonably expected change in income may not satisfy ATR obligations. Federal Register federalregisterfederalregister
Trump signs Schedule F order, reclassifying senior career staff across agencies. On Wednesday, June 3, the President signed an executive order converting nearly 10,000 career federal workers into the new Schedule Policy/Career category — formerly Schedule F — making them effectively at-will employees. OPM said the order targets about 8,000 jobs, down from a prior 50,000 estimate, with roughly 97% being GS-15s or senior leaders, including division heads, CIOs, program managers, regulation-writers, and agency attorneys. Government Executive
Trump: Fannie/Freddie offering still “on the table,” no rush. The President said Friday the administration is still considering a public offering of GSE shares despite naming Pulte acting DNI, and that the plan is not a rush job; the GSEs remain in conservatorship with stocks down more than 30% year to date. HousingWire HousingWire
Pulte’s DNI role clouds the FHFA agenda. Industry participants called the appointment “shocking” and warned it could slow GSE-reform priorities including a potential IPO; Pulte retains his FHFA director and GSE chairman roles. Impact Capitol’s Tim Rood noted the move “tells us more than it affects us,” suggesting nothing major is teed up on GSE reform. National Mortgage News National Mortgage News
Privatization timeline faces new uncertainty. Experts warned Pulte’s dual responsibilities may stall the complex conservatorship-exit effort as rates stay elevated, while Trump called the DNI post “not a permanent position.” CNN Business CNN
A counter-view: the agenda could accelerate. The Urban Institute’s Sam Valverde argued Pulte’s greater connectivity to the administration could actually advance stock-sale discussions, while KBW’s Bose George noted FHFA has not appeared to take concrete steps such as revisiting the GSE capital rule. HousingWire HousingWire

ECONOMIC NEWS

May payrolls smash expectations. Nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 versus a consensus near 80,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%; average hourly earnings were up 3.4% over the past year. CNBC CNBC
Upward revisions reinforce a resilient labor market. March and April were revised up to 214,000 and 179,000 respectively, adding a combined 93,000 jobs, with leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care leading the gains. BLS Employment Situation Stephens
Beneath the beat, a low-hire, low-fire market. The long-term unemployed are up 524,000 over the year and now make up 27.5% of all jobless people — the highest share this cycle — even as the headline rate stays calm. Verified Investing Verified Investing
The bond market is bracing for hikes, not cuts. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 12 bps Friday to 4.17%, its highest since February 2025, and is now up 79 bps since late February as the market shifted from pricing rate cuts to multiple hikes; the 30-year rose back above 5% and the 10-year closed at 4.55%. Wolf Richter argues CPI and PCE will likely show May inflation above 4% — double the Fed’s target — leaving new Chair Kevin Warsh little room to cut. Wolf Street
Fed seen holding in June. Markets now price roughly a 65% chance of a hold at the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, with bank strategists noting the strong print keeps the Fed focused on the inflation side of its mandate; wage growth cooling to 3.4% was the one line arguing for a cut. Stephens Verified InvestingStephens

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

CMBS delinquencies lead a “mixed” Q1. CMBS posted the highest delinquency rate at 7.28% and the biggest quarterly increase among capital sources in MBA’s latest Commercial Delinquency Report, with Fannie Mae multifamily also rising while banks and life companies stayed relatively healthy. Connect CRE Connect CRE
New Mountain to buy Asset Living for $2B+. The private equity firm agreed to acquire the residential property manager from Roark Capital in a deal valued at more than $2 billion, alongside CEO Ryan McGrath, including its owned real estate and proprietary technology platform. Houston-based Asset Living is the second-largest U.S. property manager behind Greystar, with more than 455,000 units under management. The Real Deal The Real DealBisnow

INDUSTRY NEWS

Proptech capital keeps flowing into multifamily AI. AI-powered rewards platform CasaPerks closed a $15.8 million seed round, part of a wave of fresh funding and partnerships as proptech firms push deeper into AI-driven leasing, operations, and resident engagement. Multifamily Executive Multifamilyexecutive