It’s performance review time, aka “midterms,” and Congress finally did something about housing, or at least passed a bill about it. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act cleared the House 358-32 after an 85-5 Senate vote and now sits on the President’s desk, billed as the largest housing bill in three decades, barring companies that already own more than 350 single-family homes from buying more – even though a report released almost the same day showed small investors buy roughly two thirds of investment properties. The timing of the bill passing was not subtle or a coincidence. A recent AP poll has the President’s approval at 37 percent and economy approval at 33, so both parties found religion on affordability at once. Rates did not cooperate. Mortgage News Daily had the 30-year fixed at 6.65 percent, the 10-year is parked near 4.48, and despite oil falling from $111 to under $73 a barrel, mortgage rates have refused to follow – largely because the Fed has gone hawkish in a year that opened with cuts priced in. Bank of America underlined the point by flipping to three rate hikes in 2026.
On the regulatory side, the Basel III re-proposal comment period closed with the MBA, CHLA, NCSHA, state regulators, and four Senate Democrats all filing, the MBA asking to cut the mortgage-servicing-asset risk weight from 250 percent to no more than 100. The demand picture is softening. Or is it? KB Home’s Q2 revenue fell 27 percent on deliveries down 23 percent, but backlog grew even more. A new MBA white paper warns of a decade of weaker housing demand that could pressure prices. Commercial held up, with Newmark arranging a $52 million cash-out refinance in Cypress, Texas, Marcus & Millichap closing a $19.75 million Livermore sale, JLL trading a $21.7 million Bronx development site, and Morgan Stanley adding 3,200 London rentals. In industry news, Pennymac is closing its Franklin, Tennessee site, and the Two Harbors-UWM-CrossCountry MSR fight turned into a public email war ahead of the shareholder vote.
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Congress cleared the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act – the House passed it 358-32 and it now heads to President Trump’s desk, the largest housing bill in three decades.
- The bill caps institutional investors that already own more than 350 single-family homes from buying more, while easing supply-side rules on manufactured and rural housing.
- The Basel III re-proposal comment period closed, with the MBA, CHLA, NCSHA, state regulators, and four Senate Democrats all filing – the MBA wants the mortgage-servicing-asset risk weight cut sharply.
- Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed sat at 6.65% as of 6/23, with the 10-year near 4.48%, and rates have refused to follow oil lower.
- Bank of America flipped its call to three Fed rate hikes in 2026, a reversal from no change a week earlier.
- A new MBA white paper warns of a decade of weaker housing demand that could pressure home prices.
- KB Home Q2 deliveries fell 23% and revenue dropped 27%, a soft new-home demand read.
- Realtor.com says investors bought ~534,000 homes in 2025, with small investors now the dominant share.
- Pennymac is closing its Franklin, Tennessee site, and the Two Harbors-UWM-CrossCountry MSR fight turned into a public email war ahead of a 6/23 vote.
- Impact Capitol’s new advisory, “The Center of Gravity Has Shifted,” argues regulatory risk has relocated from Washington to the states, where insurance commissioners, AGs, and a patchwork of state AI laws now hold the pen. (Details in the Industry News section)
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
- KB Home delivers fewer homes at lower prices as demand cools. KB Home’s fiscal Q2 revenue fell 27% to $1.11 billion and diluted EPS dropped to $0.43 from $1.50, with deliveries down 23% to 2,395 homes and the average selling price falling to $461,900 from $488,700. Backlog grew 26% sequentially, but margin pressure and buyer caution were the story. Source: StockTitan
- MBA warns of a decade of weaker housing demand. A new MBA white paper, “Implications of a Persistent Slowing in Housing Demand,” argues that an aging population, lower fertility, smaller young-adult cohorts, and reduced immigration will slow household formation over the next ten years. If construction stays elevated as Baby Boomers transfer homes to younger generations, supply could outpace demand in some markets and exert downward pressure on prices. Source: Mortgage Professional America
- Investors bought ~534K homes in 2025, with small buyers dominating. A Realtor.com report shows small investors drove about 63% of investor purchases, the highest share in more than 15 years, at a median price of $330,000 versus the $440,000 market median, with Memphis leading at a 23.7% investor share. Source: HousingWire
- Realtor.com’s state report cards show a nation divided. In Realtor.com’s second annual Affordability and Homebuilding Report Cards, Indiana jumped to No. 1 with an A grade while New York finished last at No. 51, where a typical family spends more than half its income on the median-home mortgage. Every A and B grade went to a Southern or Midwestern state, with the regional divide widening rather than narrowing. Source: The Mortgage Point
MORTGAGE MARKETS
- Rates hold mostly steady; 30-year fixed at 6.65%. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed was 6.65% as of 6/23, down a single basis point, with bonds improving just enough for lenders to nudge the smallest measurable amount lower. The 15-year sat at 6.19%, FHA at 6.23%, VA at 6.25%, and the 7/6 ARM at 6.37%. Source: Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily
- Why rates haven’t followed oil down. HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami notes oil has fallen from $111 to under $73 a barrel, yet the 10-year Treasury is parked near 4.48% and mortgage rates remain near yearly highs because the Fed has gone hawkish in a year that started with cuts priced in. His takeaway: treat roughly 4.46% to 4.48% as the base for the 10-year until the data or the Fed says otherwise. Source: HousingWire HousingWire
- Chrisman’s pipeline read: HELOCs, verification, and the AI gap. The 6/23 Pipeline Press rounds up HELOC and verification product launches, the industry’s AI adoption gap, the advancing housing bill, and JPMorganChase commentary on affordability. Source: Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily
REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
- Congress sends the ROAD to Housing Act to Trump’s desk. The House passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 358-32 on 6/23 after the Senate cleared it Monday, and it now heads to the President’s desk for signature. Billed as the biggest housing bill in over 30 years, it leans on deregulation, expanded programs, and supply incentives. Source: NPR NPR
- The fine print: a 350-home cap, manufactured housing, and bank riders. The Senate passed the package 85-5, and beyond the housing supply measures it served as a vehicle for community-bank provisions, including treatment of brokered and custodial deposits. The final version restricts companies already owning more than 350 single-family homes from buying more, a middle ground after the House softened a broader Senate ban and dropped a seven-year build-to-rent sell-by requirement. Source: American Banker American BankerThe Hill
- Counties flag the disaster-recovery win. The National Association of Counties notes the bill authorizes the Community Development Block Grant-Disaster Recovery program for three years, giving it standing authorization rather than case-by-case appropriations. Source: NACo National Association of Counties
- Basel III comment period closes with the industry piling on. The 90-day comment period for the Fed, OCC, and FDIC capital re-proposal closed June 18, drawing letters from the MBA, CHLA, NCSHA, and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, while four Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren requested a 180-day extension. CHLA pushed to cut the 100% risk weight on warehouse loans to 50%, and NCSHA asked for lower risk weighting on housing-credit-financed properties. Source: Scotsman Guide
- MBA’s Basel III asks, in detail. In its June 18 comment letter, the MBA recommended cutting the proposed mortgage-servicing-asset risk weight from 250% to no more than 100%, easing capital on unused warehouse facilities, retaining the LTV framework with greater recognition of private mortgage insurance, and lowering risk weights on high-LTV CRE loans and GSE-backed securities. Source: MBA NewsLink
ECONOMIC NEWS
- BofA flips hawkish: three hikes now on the table. Bank of America reversed course on 6/22 and now expects three quarter-point Fed hikes in 2026 – September, October, and December – lifting the benchmark toward 4.25%-4.50%, while Deutsche Bank sees two, Goldman pushed cuts into 2027, and market pricing sits closer to 42 basis points. Source: Fortune TheStreet
- Affordability is now a midterm liability. A mid-June AP poll put the President’s overall approval at 37% and economy approval at 33%, the backdrop against which both parties rushed the housing bill across the line. Source: NBC News NBC News
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)
- Newmark arranges $52M cash-out refi for a Houston-area apartment owner. Newmark secured a $52 million cash-out refinance through a debt fund for Cantera at Towne Lake, a 366-unit Class A community in Cypress, Texas, on behalf of The Bascom Group, with $4.42 million set aside for renovations. The borrower chose a refi over a sale to return capital while keeping the upside. Source: Newmark
- Marcus & Millichap closes the last leg of a Livermore portfolio. M&M arranged the $19.75 million sale of Briarwood Apartments, a 64-unit property in Livermore, California, the final piece of a three-property East Bay portfolio, with $13.3 million in acquisition financing. Source: Connect CRE
- JLL trades a Bronx development site for $21.7M. JLL arranged the $21.7 million sale of a 172,774-square-foot residential development site in Mott Haven, with seller Altmark Group selling to Nalcorp, which plans one or more residential buildings. Source: Connect CRE
- Morgan Stanley bulks up on European rentals. Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, alongside Ridgeback Group, acquired the private rented sector business of London & Quadrant Housing Trust, adding about 3,200 Greater London rentals under the Metra Living brand. Source: Connect CRE
INDUSTRY NEWS
- Pennymac shutters a Tennessee site. Pennymac confirmed it is closing its Franklin, Tennessee location and reducing consumer-direct lending positions, citing the current market environment, with affected staff receiving severance and some offered other roles. Source: HousingWire
- Two Harbors and UWM trade barbs ahead of the CrossCountry vote. Executives at UWM and Two Harbors exchanged pointed emails disclosed in SEC filings, with Two Harbors suggesting UWM is trying to frustrate CrossCountry Mortgage’s acquisition and UWM alleging Two Harbors executives are prioritizing their own compensation. A shareholder vote on the CrossCountry deal was set for 6/23 after two prior postponements, with 54% of submitted votes opposing the merger as of the 6/15 disclosure. Source: HousingWire
- The Center of Gravity Has Shifted”: regulatory risk is moving from Washington to the states. Our latest advisory argues this is a structural relocation, not a pendulum swing – with the CFPB hollowed out and explicitly handing nonbank oversight to the states, insurance never federal to begin with, and no national AI law, the rules now live across 50 states, insurance commissioners, and attorneys general, each on its own clock and often in conflict. If your compliance radar still points mainly at federal agencies, you are watching the wrong half of the sky. Source: Impact Capitol / Tim Rood on LinkedIn
- A briefing for P&C insurers, IMBs and nonbanks, banks, and AI providers. The report flags the April 16, 2025 CFPB memo redirecting supervision toward large banks, the April 22, 2026 Regulation B rule disavowing disparate impact (now under challenge and powerless over state law), Colorado stripping the bank exemption from its AI law, and the December 11, 2025 AI executive order’s preemption push that 42 state AGs and the NAIC are fighting. The takeaway for AI vendors is blunt: you have moved from vendor to regulated party, and auditable governance and provenance are now the price of selling into regulated lenders and insurers at all. Source: Impact Capitol / Tim Rood on LinkedIn