Mark Calabria throws his hat back into the policy arena. Residential markets show resilience with projected price increases, while high mortgage rates pose affordability challenges. Commercial real estate varies widely. Let’s get you caught up and on your way in three minutes. Tim

As always, this newsletter and our analysis was all generated by our AI platform ALFReD. Know Better. Work Smarter. Be More Successful. 

Key Takeaways

The real estate market in early 2025 presents a complex landscape with varying trends across different sectors. Here are the key points to consider:

• Home prices are projected to increase 4.1% in 2025, showing resilience despite affordability challenges. This trend indicates ongoing demand in the housing market, potentially driven by demographic shifts and limited supply in desirable areas. 1
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 7.03%, significantly higher than historical averages. This elevated rate continues to impact affordability and market dynamics, influencing both buyers and sellers in their decision-making processes. 2
• Weekly mortgage demand has dropped 6%, reflecting ongoing hesitation among potential homebuyers. This decline suggests that high interest rates and home prices are creating barriers for many would-be purchasers, potentially leading to a slowdown in market activity. 3
• Former FHFA Director Mark Calabriajoins the CFPB in an interim role, signaling potential shifts in regulatory approach
• California has launched a $25 million mortgage assistance program, highlighting ongoing concerns about housing affordability and stability in high-cost markets. This initiative could provide a model for other states grappling with similar issues. 4
• Office vacancy rates are expected to peak at 19.5% in 2025, underscoring the continued impact of remote work trends on commercial real estate. This high vacancy rate may lead to significant repositioning and repurposing of office spaces in urban centers. 5
• Multifamily rent growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, moderating from recent years but still above historical averages. This trend suggests ongoing demand for rental housing, particularly in growing metropolitan areas and Sunbelt markets. 6

Residential Real Estate Markets

The U.S. housing market continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of affordability challenges and economic uncertainties. This sector shows a nuanced picture with regional variations and evolving market dynamics:

Home price increase: 3.4% year-over-year in December 2024

• This growth rate, while moderate, indicates sustained demand in the housing market.
• Factors contributing to this increase include limited inventory in desirable areas and ongoing demographic shifts favoring homeownership.

Projected price growth: 4.1% from December 2024 to December 2025

• The forecast suggests continued upward pressure on home prices, potentially exacerbating affordability concerns in some markets.
• This projection may influence buyer behavior, with some potential purchasers feeling urgency to enter the market before further price increases.

Regional leaders: Connecticut (7.8% increase) and New Jersey (7.7% increase)

• These significant price increases in Northeastern states suggest a potential shift in regional preferences, possibly driven by remote work flexibility and quality of life considerations.

Inventory growth: 22% increase in for-sale inventory during 2024

• This substantial increase in inventory could help alleviate some of the supply constraints that have been driving up prices.
• However, the impact of this inventory growth may vary significantly across different local markets and price points.

Market normalization: 25% of markets back to or above pre-pandemic inventory levels

Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, provides context: “Despite the difficult housing market conditions in 2024, home prices increased about 4.5% over the course of the year, a small jump compared to the 4.1% uptick in 2023. This trend underscores the market’s ability to maintain growth even in the face of economic headwinds.”

1 7

Mortgage Markets

The mortgage market faces significant challenges due to persistently high interest rates, affecting both potential buyers and current homeowners considering refinancing. These conditions are reshaping market dynamics and influencing policy responses:

• Current 30-year fixed rate: 7.03%
• Weekly mortgage applications: 6% decrease
• Refinance applications: 10% increase in early February

California assistance program:

• $25 million total funding
• Up to $80,000 in grants per eligible homeowner
• Eligibility: Missed at least two payments before March 1, 2025

Joel Kan, MBA’s Deputy Chief Economist, explains the current market dynamics: “Potential homebuyers continue to face the dual challenges of affordability and low inventory, which has kept many on the sidelines. This hesitation is reflected in the ongoing decline in mortgage applications, despite some pockets of increased refinancing activity.” 2 3 8 4

Commercial Real Estate Markets

The commercial real estate sector presents a varied landscape, with different segments experiencing distinct trends and challenges. This diversity underscores the importance of sector-specific strategies for investors and developers:

Office Sector

The office sector continues to grapple with the lasting impacts of the pandemic and the shift towards remote work. Julie Whelan, CBRE’s Global Head of Occupier Research, notes, “The office sector is undergoing a fundamental shift. While we’re seeing some companies push for a return to office, many are embracing hybrid models, leading to reduced space requirements.”

• Vacancy rate projection: 19.5% peak in 2025
• Current vacancy rate: 18.2% in 2024 • Trend: Increasing adoption of hybrid work models

Industrial Real Estate

The industrial sector continues to be a bright spot in commercial real estate. James Breeze, Senior Director of Global Head of Industrial & Logistics Research at CBRE, states, “The industrial sector’s fundamentals remain strong. While we’re seeing some normalization from the frenzied pace of recent years, demand continues to outpace supply in many markets.”

• Rent growth projection: 5.5% in 2025
• Drivers: E-commerce growth and supply chain reconfiguration

Key trends in this sector include:

• Ongoing demand for last-mile delivery facilities in urban areas, ncreasing interest in cold storage facilities due to growth in online grocery shopping, and rising importance of sustainability features in new industrial developments

Retail Real Estate

The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, adapting to changing consumer behaviors. Naveen Jaggi, President of Retail Advisory Services at JLL, comments, “We’re seeing a resurgence in physical retail, particularly in formats that offer convenience and experiential elements. Retailers are increasingly adopting omnichannel strategies, blending online and offline experiences.”

• Vacancy rate projection: 4.8% by end of 2025
• Current vacancy rate: 5.1% in 2024
• Leading segments: Neighborhood centers and grocery-anchored properties

Emerging trends in retail real estate include:

• Increased focus on experiential retail and entertainment-driven concept, repurposing of large format retail spaces for mixed-use developments, and growing interest in health and wellness-oriented tenants

Multifamily Sector

The multifamily sector, while moderating from recent highs, remains a strong performer in commercial real estate. Doug Ressler, Manager of Business Intelligence at Yardi Matrix, explains, “While we’re seeing a moderation in rent growth, the fundamentals of the multifamily sector remain strong. Demographics and housing affordability challenges continue to drive demand for rental housing.” 5 9 6 10

• Rent growth projection: 2.5% in 2025
• Previous year growth: 3.2% in 2024
• Long-term average: 2.1%

Breaking News: Regulatory Shift

Former FHFA Director Mark Calabria takes on a new role, signaling potential changes in financial regulation that could have far-reaching implications for the real estate and mortgage industries:

• New position: Office of Management and Budget
• Interim role: Detailed to Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
• Potential impact: Consolidation of regulatory oversight under OMB

This move, as reported by Andrew Ackerman of the Washington Post, suggests a significant shift in regulatory approach:

“Heard that former FHFA Director Mark Calabria started today at the Office of Management and Budget. He will be detailed to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau until Jonathan McKernan is confirmed as the bureau’s new director.”

Ackerman also noted:

“Also heard he has been charged with bringing all of the independent agencies into the OMB.”

The implications of this regulatory shift could be substantial:

• It may lead to more centralized oversight of financial regulations, potentially streamlining processes but also raising concerns about the independence of regulatory bodies.
• There may be changes in policies related to government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, given Calabria’s background at the FHFA. 11

The Bottom Line

The real estate landscape in early 2025 presents a mixed picture across sectors. Residential markets show resilience with projected price increases, while high mortgage rates pose affordability challenges. Commercial real estate varies widely: office spaces struggle with high vacancy rates, industrial properties thrive on e-commerce growth, and retail shows gradual recovery. Multifamily remains strong, particularly in Sunbelt markets. Key factors to watch include Federal Reserve policies, regulatory changes, and the ongoing impact of remote work. For industry professionals and investors, success hinges on adopting sector-specific and location-aware strategies. Understanding local conditions, demographic shifts, and evolving consumer preferences will be crucial. As the market continues to evolve, adaptability and informed decision-making will be essential for capitalizing on opportunities and navigating challenges in this dynamic real estate environment.