Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for April 1

March ended the way it lived: volatile, war-driven, and unfriendly to borrowers. Mortgage rates dipped back below 6.50% on the Mortgage News Daily index as bond markets caught a second day of improvement on headlines suggesting Iranian officials are ready to negotiate, but the bigger picture is grim. Rates rose roughly half a percentage point over the course of March, the hiring rate just hit its lowest level since the early pandemic shutdowns, and the Case-Shiller index confirmed that home price appreciation has decelerated to under 1% nationally.

Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies reminded everyone that there are really two ways to close a housing supply gap: build more homes, or need fewer of them. The Census data suggest the country is making real progress on the second option, with population growth falling to 1.8 million in 2025 from 3.2 million in 2024 amid collapsing immigration, and further declines projected for 2026. The Iran war is now the gravitational center of every market that touches housing: oil above $100 is feeding inflation fears, the 10-year yield spiked to 4.46% at the March peak, and the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% while projecting at most one more cut this year. The labor market JOLTS data released yesterday is the kind of report that makes you read it twice, and not for good reasons: hires fell to 4.8 million, the lowest since April 2020, while 6.9 million job openings sat unfilled. The gap between posted and filled positions keeps widening, which is either a skills-mismatch story or a phantom-listings story, and neither version is comforting heading into Friday’s employment report.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Mortgage rates fell back below 6.50% (MND index) on Iran de-escalation headlines, marking the best two-day improvement since the war began
S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose just 1.2% YoY in January, below expectations and the weakest annual gain since July 2023
AEI Housing Center reports February 2026 YoY home price appreciation at 1.1%, the lowest in its series history, with purchase rate lock volume down 27% vs. 2019
JOLTS: February hiring rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2020; hires plunged to 4.8 million, down nearly 500,000 in a single month
Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-year fixed averaged 6.38% for the week of March 26, up 16 bps from the prior week
Non-QM loan performance “rapidly deteriorating” Fitch Solutions data; total impairment rate rose to 7.37% in February with first-time delinquencies spiking at a record pace
Oil prices remained above $100/barrel (WTI) as the Iran war entered its second month, with Brent crude on track for a 60%+ monthly surge
U.S. stocks rallied on March 31 after Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled willingness to negotiate; S&P Energy Index up 39% YTD while Tech Index down 13%
CMBS office delinquencies hit an all-time high of 12.34% in January before pulling back; more than $100B in CMBS loans mature in 2026 with over half expected to default
Harvard JCHS: U.S. population growth slowed sharply to 1.8 million in 2025 from 3.2 million in 2024 amid declining immigration, with further declines projected for 2026

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

Case-Shiller January 2026: Home Price Growth Slows to Weakest Since 2023. The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose just 1.2% year-over-year in January, down from 1.4% in December and below the 1.4% consensus forecast. The national index rose 0.9% YoY. New York led at 4.9%, followed by Chicago (4.6%) and Cleveland (3.6%); Tampa posted the largest decline at -2.5%. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/case-shiller-january-home-prices/
Case-Shiller: Real Home Values Now Declining. With CPI running at 2.4% YoY and the national index gaining only 0.9%, inflation-adjusted home values have effectively declined over the past year. The Northeast and Midwest continue to outperform while Sun Belt markets including Tampa, Denver, and Phoenix post annual declines.https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/31/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-up-for-sixth-straight-month
AEI Housing Market Indicators: February HPA Hits Series Low. AEI’s monthly update shows preliminary February 2026 YoY home price appreciation at 1.1%, the lowest reading in the series, down from 1.6% a month earlier and 3.1% in February 2025. The spread between fastest-growing (Kansas City, 8.6%) and slowest-growing (Cape Coral, -9.6%) metros widened to 18.2 percentage points. https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-housing-market-indicators-march-2026/
Harvard JCHS: Population Growth Slowed Sharply in 2025, Projected to Fall Further. U.S. population grew by just 1.8 million in 2025, down from 3.2 million in 2024, driven by an abrupt decline in immigration. The Census Bureau projects immigration will decline further in 2026, which would produce historically low growth. In 14 states, immigration was the only thing preventing outright population loss, and in another 12 states it accounted for more than half of all growth. The housing demand implications are significant: states most reliant on immigration for population growth are concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest.https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/population-growth-down-sharply-and-projected-fall-further
Tariffs and War Keep Construction Costs Elevated. The Engineering News-Record Building Cost Index rose 4.2% YoY in 2025 and the Construction Cost Index climbed 3.6%, with doubled tariffs, a renewed spike in steel prices, and the Iran war’s effects on energy costs offsetting any broader materials cooling heading into 2026.https://therealdeal.com/miami/2026/03/30/south-florida-top-real-estate-deals-friday-march-27-2026/

MORTGAGE MARKETS

Mortgage News Daily: Rates Fall Back Below 6.50% on Iran De-Escalation Headlines. Top-tier 30-year fixed rates at the average lender moved below 6.50% on March 31, marking the best two-day improvement since the war began. Bond markets rallied on headlines that Iranian officials expressed willingness to end the conflict, though the signals were contingent on Iranian demands for guarantees.https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260331
Freddie Mac PMMS: 30-Year Fixed Jumps to 6.38%. For the week ending March 26, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.38%, up 16 basis points from 6.22% the prior week. The 15-year fixed rose to 5.75% from 5.54%. Rates remain below year-ago levels of 6.65%. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
March Was the Worst Month for Mortgage Rates Since the Iran War Began. Rates climbed roughly 50 basis points over the course of March, driven almost exclusively by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil prices and Treasury yields. The MND index hit 6.64% on Friday March 27, the highest since August 2025, before recovering over the weekend. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
OCC Reports Mortgage Performance for Q4 2025. The OCC’s Mortgage Metrics Report showed 97.5% of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system were current and performing at year-end, a slight increase from 97.4% in 2024. Servicers initiated 7,519 new foreclosures in Q4, down from the prior quarter but up from a year earlier. Loan modifications fell 39% quarter-over-quarter to 5,888, attributed to changes in secondary market investor loss mitigation programs. The report covers approximately 10.3 million loans totaling $2.6 trillion in principal balances.https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2026/nr-occ-2026-20.html
Non-QM Loan Performance “Rapidly Deteriorating” in February. Data from Fitch Solutions shows the non-QM total impairment rate rose to 7.37% in February, up 0.56% from January. First-time delinquencies spiked at a record monthly pace, rising 0.15% to 0.65% of outstanding loans. Made-payment rates fell 1.6% to 42.4% and cure rates dropped 1.8% to 20%. Roll rates worsened across the board, with the 30-to-59-day roll rate exceeding 27.7% and the 60-to-89-day roll rate reaching 45.7%. The report noted the past two years represent the toughest stretch of performance in the non-QM sector’s history. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/non-qm-loan-performance-seen-as-rapidly-deteriorating-in-february/

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

FHFA Eases Homeowners Insurance Requirements. FHFA announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will accept Actual Cash Value (ACV) insurance for roofs on single-family homes and condos, revising Biden-era replacement cost requirements. Director Bill Pulte said the changes could save homeowners $30 to $50 per month.https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release
Fannie Mae Accepts First Crypto-Backed Mortgage Product. Better Home & Finance and Coinbase launched a product allowing borrowers to pledge Bitcoin or USDC as down payment collateral on Fannie Mae-conforming mortgages. The crypto stays in custody, the structure avoids triggering capital gains taxes, and rates run 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points above standard conforming loans. The move follows FHFA Director Pulte’s directive for the GSEs to prepare for crypto integration in mortgage applications. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/fannie-mae-accepts-first-crypto-backed-mortgage-product.html

ECONOMIC NEWS

JOLTS: February Hiring Rate Hits Lowest Since April 2020. Job openings fell to 6.9 million in February from a revised 7.2 million in January. Hires plunged to 4.8 million, down nearly 500,000, pushing the hires rate to 3.1%, the lowest since the early pandemic. The quits rate dropped to 1.9%, its eighth consecutive month at or below 2.0%, reflecting deep worker risk aversion. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
JOLTS Analysis: Separations Outpace Hires, Labor Market Shrinks. February separations of 5.0 million exceeded hires of 4.8 million, meaning the labor market contracted on a net basis. The number of unemployed has exceeded job openings for seven consecutive months. The data predates the Iran conflict, making it a clean snapshot of pre-war labor conditions. https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/03/31/february-2026-jolts-report-stuck-in-neutral/
Stocks Rally on Iran De-Escalation Hopes. U.S. equities rallied March 31 after Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled negotiation willingness. The S&P Energy Index is up 39% YTD while the S&P Technology Index has fallen 13%, reflecting the Iran war’s sectoral impact. U.S. crude oil settled above $100/barrel for the first time since 2022. https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/03/31/stock-market-today-march-31-stocks-rally-on-hopes-of-easing-iran-conflict/
Iran War Creates Worst Energy Supply Shock in History. Brent crude surged over 60% in March alone, the strongest monthly rally on record, with May futures trading near $119/barrel. WTI crude hit $104. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has halted roughly a fifth of global oil transit. Gas prices topped $4/gallon nationally, up from under $3 before the conflict. Goldman Sachs warned that the probability of a stagflationary outcome has increased and that equity markets are not fully pricing the risk. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/iran-war-stocks-sp500-spx-nasdaq-dow-bonds-treasurys-yields-price-markets-gold-rates.html
Fed Held Rates at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18. The FOMC signaled continued caution, with projections suggesting at most one additional cut for 2026. Three Fed speakers are scheduled for March 31: Chicago President Goolsbee, Governor Barr on stablecoins, and Vice Chair Bowman on small business.https://themortgagereports.com/mortgage-rates-now/mortgage-rates-today-march-31-2026

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate Falls 33 Bps to 7.14% in February. The overall rate pulled back after January’s 7.47% reading, driven by a net decrease in delinquent loan balance. Office delinquencies retreated from the January all-time high of 12.34%. Multifamily edged down 9 bps to 6.85% but remains up 239 bps year-over-year, the largest increase among property types tracked. Including performing matured balloon loans, the effective delinquency rate would be 8.75%. https://www.multihousingnews.com/cmbs-delinquency-rates/
CMBS Office Distress Faces $100B+ Maturity Wall. CRE Daily reports that more than $100 billion in CMBS loans will mature in 2026, with Morningstar estimating that over half will default at maturity. A stunning 57% of office CMBS loans failed to pay off at maturity in the 2024 pool. Recent appraisals show office property values have dropped 55.8% since issuance. Lenders are increasingly unwilling to grant maturity extensions without significant borrower concessions, signaling an end to the post-pandemic “extend and pretend” approach.https://www.credaily.com/briefs/cmbs-office-distress-hits-2026-maturity-wall/
Commercial Observer: Five-Year Vintage Loans Are the Bigger Concern. Borrowers who took out CMBS loans in 2021 used aggressive leverage at peak pricing during easy-money conditions and now face refinancing in a fundamentally different rate environment. Nearly half of 2019 and 2021 five-year loans failed to pay off at maturity. Servicers and borrowers are increasingly negotiating workouts rather than extending, with more assets entering special servicing. https://commercialobserver.com/2026/03/cmbs-loans-office-distress-2026/
Multifamily Maturity Wall: $162B Coming Due in 2026. Multifamily maturities surge 56% from 2025 levels to roughly $162 billion in 2026, with the sector facing a severe interest rate mismatch as properties underwritten at 2.5%–3.5% in 2021 now face refinancing at 5%–6% or higher. The Kaplan Group estimates nearly half of apartment properties may struggle to secure refinancing at sustainable terms. Total distressed CRE volume reached $126.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 18% YoY, with multifamily accounting for $22.8 billion.https://www.multihousingnews.com/a-closer-look-at-the-multifamily-maturity-wall-and-refinancing-crisis/
March 2026 CMBS Hard Maturities: $3.18B Across 87 Loans. CRE Daily and Trepp data show retail comprised 37.7% of the March cohort, office 23.1%, and mixed-use 22.8%. Over 97% of the March pool is performing, with only $78.7 million (2.5%) in non-performing status. Distress is concentrated in select assets, including the Williamsburg Premium Outlets and the Sheraton North Houston. https://www.credaily.com/briefs/mixed-use-retail-lead-march-2026-cmbs-maturities/
NAR Commercial Market Insights: Office Stabilizing, Multifamily Demand Steady. NAR’s March report shows office vacancy remains elevated with widespread concessions, but demand trends are improving from prior lows. Class A led leasing activity. Multifamily reflects steady demand, though elevated supply from prior development cycles keeps vacancy up and rent growth subdued. https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-insights/march-2026-commercial-real-estate-market-insights
Bisnow: Construction Costs Surge 12.6% in First Two Months of 2026. The spike is driven by tariffs, steel price increases, and the Iran war’s impact on energy and input costs, further pressuring development economics across the CRE spectrum. https://www.bisnow.com/

INDUSTRY NEWS

Federal Government Shed 385,000 Employees Last Year; Trump Administration Now Hiring Gen Z. Fortune reports the federal workforce declined by 385,000 jobs last year, and the administration is now pursuing an aggressive campaign to recruit younger workers to fill key roles. https://fortune.com/article/current-mortgage-rates-03-31-2026/
LoopNet: DC and Las Vegas Lead Nation for Multifamily Investment. A new report from LoopNet analyzing 50 major U.S. cities scored Washington, D.C., and Las Vegas highest for multifamily investment based on cap rates, property taxes, and listing inventory. https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/03/31/new-york-top-real-estate-deals-monday-march-30-2026/
Axonic Capital Looks to Triple CRE Lending, Double Distressed Investment Activity. The firm, confident that the CRE sector is at an inflection point, is aiming to significantly expand lending and distressed asset acquisitions in 2026 as the maturity wall creates buying opportunities. https://crenews.com/