Homes starting to lounge on the market for 47 days while mortgage rates continue their grueling climb to 6.89%. Meanwhile, commercial real estate is showing signs of life with sales jumping 30% in February – long live retail shopping! Dir Pulte declares Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “back in business.” The Education Department is preparing to play debt collector for 5.3 million student loan borrowers, ensuring that the American dream of homeownership remains exactly that—a dream—for millions of young adults. Let’s soak you in data and news and get you on your way in 3 minutes. Tim

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Key Takeaways

• The typical U.S. home is taking 47 days to sell (the slowest pace since 2019) as inventory reaches a five-year high, giving buyers more options and reducing competition [1]
• Mortgage rates climbed to 6.89% for 30-year fixed loans as of April 21, with jumbo rates seeing an even larger increase to 6.97% amid ongoing market volatility [2]
• The Education Department will begin collection on defaulted student loans starting May 5, affecting 5.3 million borrowers through wage garnishment and Treasury offsets, potentially impacting housing affordability [3]
• Prominent homebuilder Bill Pulte announced that “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are officially ‘back in business’, ready to grow, and actively financing borrowers” after what he described as “4 years of the housing industry being asleep” [4]
• Commercial real estate sales jumped 30% year-over-year in February to $24.4 billion, led by retail (105% increase) and office (55% increase) sectors, signaling a potential selective recovery in the market [5]
• The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows declining job market confidence, with the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost falling to 50.2% from 54.1%, the lowest reading since April 2021 [6]

Residential Real Estate Markets

• Slowing Sales Pace: Homes that went under contract in March sat on the market for 47 days—the longest period for any March since 2019 and more than double the time seen during the pandemic homebuying frenzy [1]
• Rising Inventory: Supply of homes for sale reached a five-year high in March, climbing 14.1% year-over-year, while new listings hit their highest level since July 2022, rising 6% compared to March 2024 [1]
• Reduced Competition: Only 27% of homes sold above list price in March—the lowest March share since 2020—reflecting decreased buyer competition and more room for negotiation [1]
• Weekly Data Trends: For the week ending April 12, the national median list price remained flat year-over-year, while active inventory climbed 31.2%—marking the 75th consecutive week of annual gains [7]
• New Listings Growth: New listings increased 12.8% compared to the same period last year, marking the 14th straight week of annual growth and providing more options for buyers [7]
• Regional Variations: Median sale prices rose most dramatically in Cleveland (11.8%), Nassau County (9.8%), and Newark (9.5%), while falling in eight metros, primarily in Florida and Texas, where rising supply and insurance costs have fueled a housing slowdown [1]

Mortgage Markets

• Rate Increases: The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.89% as of April 21, up from 6.86% the previous week, while the 15-year fixed rate rose to 6.12% from 6.08% [2]
• Jumbo Rates Climb: The 30-year fixed jumbo rate increased significantly to 6.97% from 6.81%, reflecting heightened risk perception for larger loans [2]
• Affordability Impact: The monthly payment for a median-priced home ($398,400) with a 20% down payment and a 6.89% mortgage rate now amounts to $2,074, representing 25% of the typical family’s monthly income [2]
• MBA Forecasts: The Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 30-year mortgage rate of 7.0% for the current quarter, dropping to 6.7% by the end of the year, and falling to 6.4% by the end of 2026 [8]
• New Home Applications: Applications for new home purchases increased 5.5% year-over-year in March 2025, with a 14% month-over-month increase reflecting typical seasonal patterns [9]
• Move-In Ready Demand: There has been a notable shift in the composition of new homes sold, with completed (“move-in ready”) homes now accounting for about half of sales, up from 42% in 2023 and 37% in 2010-2020 [8]
• GSE Activity: Prominent homebuilder Bill Pulte announced that “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are officially ‘back in business’, ready to grow, and actively financing borrowers” after what he described as “4 years of the housing industry being asleep” [4]

Commercial Real Estate Markets

• Sales Volume Surge: CRE sales jumped 30% year-over-year in February to $24.4 billion, with retail sales experiencing a remarkable 105% increase and office sales rising by 55% [5]
• Sector Performance: The multifamily sector showed consistent growth with a 7% increase in sales, marking its ninth consecutive month of year-over-year growth, while industrial remained stable [5]
• Pricing Trends: Retail and industrial properties saw a 5% increase in pricing, while office and hospitality experienced declines, indicating ongoing challenges in certain market segments [5]
• Record Multifamily Absorption: Over 138,000 market-rate units were absorbed in Q1 2025, marking the highest first-quarter demand since RealPage began tracking, with nearly 708,000 units absorbed over the past year [10]
• Occupancy Improvements: National multifamily occupancy rates reached 95.2%, the highest since October 2022, with modest rent growth of 0.75% in March and 1.1% year-over-year [10]
• Regional Variations: Midwest and Rust Belt markets are experiencing strong rent growth, while Sun Belt cities face challenges due to oversupply, though positive trends are emerging in these areas as well [10]
• Industrial Ownership Trend: Industrial occupiers are increasingly choosing to purchase properties rather than lease them, with a 32% increase in sales to occupiers in 2024, particularly for older buildings constructed before 1980 [11]
• Retail Outlook: The U.S. retail real estate sector has a promising outlook in 2025, with core retail sales rising 3.4% year-over-year in 2024, outpacing core inflation [12]

CRE Financing & Servicing

• CLO Issuance: Commercial real estate CLO issuance is booming in 2025, with billions in new deals far outpacing the volumes in 2023 and 2024 [13]
• Loan Losses: In February, $79.7 million across 14 loans were resolved with $38.2 million in total losses, with an average loss severity of 47.87%—a significant pullback from January’s $246.9 million in losses [14]
• Delinquency Trends: The overall CMBS delinquency rate for commercial real estate increased to 6.65% in March, reaching a nearly four-year high, with a total balance of $39.3 billion [15]
• Multifamily Concerns: Multifamily continues to be a trouble spot, with apartment loan delinquencies at community banks jumping 39% from Q3 to Q4 2024 [15]
• Refinancing Activity: Seagis Property Group successfully refinanced two industrial portfolios in Miami-Dade and Northern New Jersey for $184.2 million, highlighting strong lender interest in fully-leased industrial assets [16]
• Loan Extensions: Loan extensions hit a record $384 billion as lenders continue to “kick the can” on potential problem loans [17]
• CRE CLO Distress: While CRE CLO distress fell to 14.4% in March from 16.0% in February, 69.5% of loans are past maturity, with only 15% of loans remaining current, down from 20.3% the previous month [18]
• Tariff Impact: Tariffs threaten to stall CRE projects and push costs up by approximately 5%, creating additional challenges for development and refinancing [17]

Economic & Political

• Economic Forecasts: The MBA has reduced expected economic growth to just 0.3% for the full year and increased their forecast for inflation, with expectations that it will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2025 [8]
• Unemployment Outlook: The MBA has increased their forecast of unemployment from 4.4% at the end of 2025 to 5.0%, which could further dampen housing demand as potential buyers become more concerned about job security [8]
• Fed Rate Expectations: The MBA expects the Federal Reserve to be on hold through the first half of the year but anticipates three more cuts in the second half, though inflation concerns could delay this timeline [8]
• Consumer Expectations: The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows mixed inflation expectations and declining job turnover expectations, with the mean perceived probability of finding a job falling to 50.2% from 54.1%, the lowest since April 2021 [6]
• Student Loan Collections: Beginning May 5, the Education Department will start involuntary collection on defaulted student loans through the Treasury Department’s offset program, affecting approximately 5.3 million borrowers [3]
• Wage Garnishment: After a 30-day notice, the department will also begin garnishing wages for borrowers in default, potentially reducing disposable income available for housing expenses [3]
• Loan Repayment Struggles: Less than 40% of all borrowers are currently current on their student loans, with around 4 million between 91 to 180 days late on their payments [3]
• Fiscal Warning: Moody’s warns that US fiscal strength will continue to decline as debt rises and affordability worsens, with tariffs and tax cuts unlikely to offset mounting deficits [13]

News: Policies and Regulations

• GSE Developments: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reportedly “back in business” and actively financing borrowers, potentially signaling a shift in their approach to the market [4]
• California Vacancy Tax: California lawmakers are considering Senate Bill 789, which would impose a $5 per square foot annual tax on commercial properties vacant for 182+ days to address urban blight and fund first-time homebuyer assistance [19]
• Legal Challenges: The proposed vacancy tax faces legal uncertainty following a recent court ruling that overturned San Francisco’s residential vacancy tax [19]
• Missing Middle Housing: The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies released a report on “missing middle housing” as a potential solution to the affordable housing crisis, examining obstacles and opportunities for greater production [20]
• Affordable Housing Development: The Casa Adelante project recently broke ground in San Francisco’s Mission District, providing 168 units for households earning between 25% to 80% of the Area Median Income [21]
• Remodeling Growth: Annual expenditures for improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes are expected to grow modestly in 2025, despite economic volatility due to uncertainty surrounding foreign tariffs [20]
• GSE Privatization: The White House is reportedly exploring a $250 billion privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could significantly impact mortgage market dynamics [11]
• Delaware Corporate Legislation: Delaware approved controversial legislation favoring corporate executives, sparking investor backlash and fears of companies relocating [13]