Mortgage rates ticked back up Tuesday – 30-year fixed at 6.38% intraday versus Monday’s 6.32% close, after the U.S. signaled rejection of the latest Iran proposal – the 10-year Treasury also hit a three-week high of 4.36%. The data slate did housing no favors: FHFA’s HPI was unchanged in February with annual appreciation slowing to 1.7%, and Case-Shiller’s national index rose just 0.7% YoY — the ninth consecutive month inflation has outpaced home price growth — with more than half of major metros now in year-over-year decline and Denver (-2.2%) replacing Tampa as the weakest market. Consumer Confidence beat expectations at 92.8 – now for the downer part – the Expectations Index for consumers has now sat below the recession-signaling “80” threshold for 15 straight months. Gas hit a national average of $4.18, and Congressional staff are floating a 90-day federal gas tax suspension to the FY26 reconciliation bill.
The FOMC kicks off its two-day meeting today with markets pricing a 100% probability of a hold and Powell delivering what is almost certainly his final statement as Chair. Senate Banking Committee votes Wednesday on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace him. First American argues that the CRE maturity wall is finally turning a corner: MBA-projected 2026 maturities of $875B are down from $957B in 2025 (the first decline since tracking began), and extensions dropped to 21% of expected maturities from 41%, suggesting “extend and pretend” is yielding something closer to “resolve or reset.” Rounding third base is Harvard’s JCHS report that reminded everyone that 85% of extremely low-income renters are cost-burdened and that SNAP and Medicaid — not housing programs — are quietly doing most of the work keeping their rent paid.
Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Mortgage rates pushed back up Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury hit a three-week high after the U.S. signaled rejection of the latest Iran proposal; intraday MND 30-year fixed at 6.38%, up 6 bps from Monday’s 6.32% close.
- Gas prices spiked 11.2 cents overnight to $4.17/gallon — the 6th largest single-day jump on record — and Congressional staff are increasingly floating a 90-day federal gas tax suspension as a Managers Amendment to the FY26 reconciliation bill.
- FHFA House Price Index unchanged in February, with annual appreciation slowing to 1.7%; the Mountain division declined 1.1% MoM, the steepest regional drop.
- Case-Shiller national index posted just 0.7% YoY gain in February, with more than half of major metros now in year-over-year decline; Denver displaced Tampa as the weakest market at -2.2%.
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence edged up to 92.8 in April from 92.2, but remains the 15th consecutive month with the Expectations Index below the recession-signaling 80 threshold.
- FOMC begins its two-day meeting today; markets are pricing a 100% probability of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with focus on Powell’s final-meeting language on Iran-driven inflation risks.
- HUD published a proposed rule revising Equal Access regulations in the Federal Register, aligning with the EO on “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism”; comments due June 29.
- Senate Banking Committee will vote on Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination Wednesday at 10am after Sen. Tillis dropped his hold; full Senate confirmation likely before Powell’s term ends May 15.
- The CRE maturity wall appears to be reaching a turning point in 2026, with $875B in commercial mortgage maturities (down from $957B in 2025) and loan extensions falling to 21% of expected maturities from 41% the year prior.
- The Real Brokerage to acquire RE/MAX Holdings in an $880M deal announced Monday, creating Real REMAX Group with ~180,000 agents and pro forma 2025 revenue of ~$2.3B.
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS
- FHFA HPI Flat in February, Annual Growth Decelerates to 1.7%: U.S. house prices were unchanged month-over-month in February, with January’s reading revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, FHFA reported Tuesday. The Mountain division posted the steepest monthly decline at -1.1%, while the Middle Atlantic led 12-month gains at +4.2%. FHFA
- Case-Shiller Confirms Broadening Slowdown; Denver Now Weakest Metro: The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index rose just 0.7% YoY in February, down from 0.8% in January, with more than half of major U.S. metros posting year-over-year price declines. Denver (-2.2%) replaced Tampa as the weakest market, while Los Angeles and Washington joined the list of decliners; inflation has now outpaced national home price appreciation for nine consecutive months. PR Newswire / S&P DJI
- Lock-In Effect Loosens as Sub-5% Sellers Come to Market: A Coldwell Banker survey of more than 700 active agents conducted in late March and early April found 35% of current spring sellers hold a rate below 5% but are listing anyway, a sign that life circumstances are increasingly overriding the financial penalty. The share of outstanding mortgages at 6% or higher has now surpassed the share below 3% for the first time, per Realtor.com data. National Law Review
- Florida and the Mountain West Diverge from National Trend: Eleven states including Florida, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Tennessee have surpassed pre-pandemic inventory levels and continue to drag national price growth, while Midwest and Northeast markets where inventory remains constrained still show modest appreciation. Chicago led 20-city annual gains at 5.0% in February, followed by New York (+4.7%) and Cleveland (+4.2%). Scotsman Guide
- JCHS: SNAP and Medicaid Are Doing the Heavy Lifting on Renter Cost Burdens: A new Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies post highlights that 85% of extremely low-income renters (≤30% AMI) face cost burdens, with 61% receiving Medicaid and 47% on SNAP; severely cost-burdened low-income renters spend 39% less on food and 42% less on healthcare than their unburdened peers. The piece notes that all-items-ex-shelter prices rose 24% from September 2019 to September 2025 (food/beverages +31%, transportation +31%), magnifying the role federal safety-net programs play in keeping rent paid. Harvard JCHS
MORTGAGE MARKETS
- MND 30-Year Fixed Rises to 6.38% Intraday on Iran Headlines: The Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed sat at 6.38% intraday Tuesday, up 6 basis points from Monday’s 6.32% close, as bonds sold off following reports the U.S. is unhappy with the latest Iran peace proposal. The 10-year Treasury reached its highest level in three weeks at 4.36%. The 15-year fixed sits at 5.94%, the FHA 30-year at 5.91%, and the 7/6 SOFR ARM at 5.95%. Mortgage News Daily
- Bond Market Now Selectively Responsive to War Headlines: MND’s commentary noted that earlier in the war almost any Iran headline moved bonds, but now it takes “the most significant developments” — leaving investors essentially waiting for either an official permanent ceasefire or catastrophic re-escalation. Tuesday’s selloff broke that pattern as the U.S. shunned a specific proposal and oil rose roughly in line with bond yields. Mortgage News Daily
- Capital Efficiency Becoming the Mortgage Industry’s Next Frontier: A HousingWire opinion piece argued Monday that the mortgage industry’s decades-long optimization for affordability via the 30-year fixed-rate structure has come at the cost of capital efficiency — extending costs over time, slowing equity accumulation, and constraining product innovation. The framing arrives as borrower interest in shorter-term and adjustable products grows in a structurally higher-rate environment. HousingWire
REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
- HUD Proposes Revising Equal Access Rule to Align with Gender EO: HUD published a proposed rule in the Federal Register Tuesday that would harmonize its Equal Access regulations with the Trump executive order titled “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.” The rule would also allow HUD program operators with single-sex facilities to require evidence to confirm sex; comments are due June 29, 2026. Federal Register
- Senate Banking Committee to Vote on Warsh Fed Chair Nomination Wednesday: The Senate Banking Committee will hold an executive session at 10am ET on April 29 to vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) dropped his hold over the weekend following the DOJ closing its Powell renovation investigation. With Tillis’s support, the 13-11 GOP committee majority is expected to advance the nomination, putting Warsh on track for full Senate confirmation before Powell’s term as Chair expires May 15. Senate Banking Committee
- FOMC Convenes Two-Day Meeting; Hold Widely Expected: The Federal Open Market Committee began its third meeting of 2026 today, with the CME FedWatch tool showing 100% probability of a hold at the 3.50%-3.75% range when the statement is released Wednesday at 2pm ET. RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas wrote that the FOMC is likely to expand language acknowledging two-sided risks to its dual mandate from the Iran energy shock; this will likely be Powell’s final meeting as Chair. RSM
WHAT WE’RE HEARING
- Gas Tax Suspension Gaining Traction in Reconciliation Vehicle: Gas prices jumped 11.2 cents overnight to $4.17/gallon — the 6th largest single-day spike on record — and Congressional staff are increasingly floating a 90-day federal gas tax suspension (18.4¢ gasoline, 24.4¢ diesel) as a Managers Amendment to the FY26 reconciliation bill targeted for Memorial Day passage. The $140B bill — nominally scoped to Judiciary and Homeland Security with ~$70B earmarked for ICE and DHS — has roughly $70B in headroom that leadership could deploy via the reconciliation loophole allowing leadership-driven tweaks to committee language. A 90-day suspension would cost ~$9B and pull pump prices back into the $3 handle at current levels. Federal gas and diesel taxes generate ~$35.8B annually combined and fund ~83% of the Highway Trust Fund, so suspension (not elimination) is the operative framing.
- Voter Backlash Driving Congressional Urgency on Iran Posture: 77% of voters assign Trump some blame for elevated gas prices tied to the Iran conflict, including 82% of Independents and 55% of Republicans; 58% overall (and two-thirds of Independents) say they’re less likely to support midterm candidates backing Trump’s Iran approach. Democrats will continue forcing privileged War Powers Resolution votes to keep the issue salient. The $5/gallon and/or June benchmarks remain the operative deadlines for Congressional patience, with the Strait of Hormuz showing no near-term pathway to reopening and Gulf refinery degradation keeping prices elevated regardless. Lawmakers would also prefer to act before the President tests his executive authority to suspend the tax unilaterally — prior administrations explored that option exhaustively and concluded the White House lacks the authority, but this President has shown a willingness to stress-test the system.
ECONOMIC NEWS
- Consumer Confidence Inches Up Despite Gas Price Anxiety: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 points to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March, beating the 89.0 consensus and reaching the highest level of the year. The Expectations Index improved 1.2 points to 72.2 but remains below 80 for the 15th consecutive month — a level historically associated with recession; the survey window included the temporary two-week ceasefire that began April 8. Conference Board
- Pessimism Skew Persists in Survey Write-Ins: Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson noted that consumer write-in responses continued to skew toward pessimism in April, with comments about prices, oil, gas, and war increasing in frequency compared with March. Net views of the labor market improved modestly: 27.3% said jobs were “plentiful” (versus 27.4% in March) and 19.8% said jobs were “hard to get” (down from 21.3%). PR Newswire / Conference Board
- National Gas Price Average Hits $4.18 Per Gallon: The Associated Press reported via Fortune that the U.S. national average for a gallon of gas rose to $4.18 this week, up more than a dollar since before the war with Iran began and the highest level for U.S. drivers in nearly four years. The Conference Board cited rising gasoline prices as a material concern offsetting the survey’s headline gain. Fortune
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)
- First American: CRE Maturity Wall Reaching an Inflection Point: Xander Snyder of First American argued Monday that the CRE maturity wall is turning a corner in 2026: MBA-projected 2026 maturities of $875B are down from $957B originally scheduled for 2025 — the first decline since MBA began tracking — and loan extensions fell to $200B (21% of expected maturities) from $384B (41%) a year earlier. The piece frames the shift as “extend and pretend” giving way to “resolve or reset,” with MBA forecasting commercial originations to rise from ~$634B in 2025 to ~$806B in 2026 and the Fed’s January SLOOS showing some easing in CRE lending standards. First American
- AvalonBay Q1 FFO of $2.83 Tops Estimates; Revenue Light: AvalonBay Communities reported Q1 2026 FFO of $398.7 million ($2.83 per share), beating the seven-analyst consensus of $2.80, with net income of $325.7 million ($2.33 per share). Revenue of $770.3 million missed Street forecasts; the company reaffirmed full-year Core FFO and FFO outlook while updating its EPS guidance. Business Wire
- Equity Residential and Essex Report After Close Tuesday: EQR (consensus Q1 FFO ~$0.96/share) and ESS (consensus Core FFO ~$3.96/share, midpoint of company guidance $3.95) report Q1 results after the bell, with both expected to show modest year-over-year revenue gains and offer updated read-throughs on coastal versus Sun Belt rent dynamics heading into peak leasing season. Zacks via TradingView
- Stratton Capital Closes $27.6M Tampa Multifamily Bridge Loan: Stratton Capital Group announced Tuesday it closed a $27.6 million bridge loan financing the acquisition of a 204-unit value-add multifamily community in Tampa, Florida, structured around the sponsor’s renovation and stabilization timeline. The firm noted continued bridge lending activity across multifamily, industrial, retail, and mixed-use assets in the $3M-$100M range. GlobeNewswire via Manila Times
- Mom-and-Pop Rent Collections Continue to Stabilize: Chandan Economics-RentRedi data show on-time rental payments in independently operated properties rose to 84.5% in April 2026, the sixth increase in seven months and 223 basis points above the September 2025 low. The improvement likely reflects some seasonal lift from spring tax refunds, but the rebound has been broad enough to suggest underlying stabilization continuing into mid-2026. Chandan Economics
INDUSTRY NEWS
- Real Brokerage to Acquire RE/MAX in $880M Deal: The Real Brokerage (NASDAQ: REAX) and RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) announced Monday a definitive agreement under which Real will acquire RE/MAX Holdings at an implied enterprise value of $880 million — 7x fully synergized 2025 EBITDA. The combined Real REMAX Group would have nearly 8,500 franchisees, more than 180,000 agents, and pro forma 2025 revenue of approximately $2.3 billion; the deal values RMAX shares at $13.80 and is expected to close in the second half of 2026. HousingWire
- Rithm Capital Beats Q1 Estimates; Genesis Pivots to Multifamily: Rithm Capital reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.51 (vs. $0.50 consensus) on revenue of $1.38 billion (vs. $1.25B expected), with $28.6 million in earnings and a 17% ROE; book value grew quarter-over-quarter to $12.51 per share even after the $0.25 dividend. Genesis Capital posted its best quarter ever with multifamily now 35-40% of production, and Newrez is targeting a 15% reduction in cost-per-loan via AI-native servicing technology by early 2027. The Motley Fool