Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for April 30

Senate Republicans wasted no time and advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination on a 13-11 party-line vote, the first fully partisan banking-committee vote on a Fed Chair nominee in the institution’s history (don’t clap). The bond market took the undesirable precedent at face value: the 10-year cleared 4.40%, and MND’s 30-year fixed jumped to 6.45%, a two-week high. The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% in an 8-4 vote – the second dubious precedent of the Fed news cycle, as this was the most fractured FOMC decision since October 1992. Three dissenters wanted the easing-bias language stripped from the statement; Governor Miran wanted a 25 bp cut. Powell used what was billed as his final press conference to announce he is staying on the Board of Governors past May 15, citing the administration’s legal pressure as the reason.

Case-Shiller posted an uninspiring 0.7% YoY national gain in February, the ninth consecutive month inflation has outpaced home price appreciation, with more than half of major metros now in negative annual territory. FHFA’s HPI was flat month-over-month, with the Mountain division turning negative year-over-year for the first time this cycle. Fannie Mae continues to kill it, reporting $3.7B in Q1 net income on $98.7B in single-family acquisitions – its best volume quarter since 2022 – while Freddie’s Q1 print, the Q1 GDP advance, March PCE, and the Q1 Employment Cost Index all land Thursday morning. MBA’s Broeksmit endorsed the Basel III reproposal at House Financial Services while pressing regulators to cut the capital penalty banks face for holding mortgage servicing rights — currently treated as 2.5x riskier than a standard loan, a treatment the MBA argues has pushed banks out of the servicing business. Brookings published a 23-minute argument for redirecting 25% of Federal Home Loan Bank advances into “missing middle” construction lending (low odds).

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The Fed held the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in an 8-4 split vote Wednesday — the most contested FOMC decision since October 1992 — with three dissenters objecting to the easing-bias language and Governor Miran voting for a 25 bp cut.
  • Powell said he intends to remain on the Board of Governors after his Chair term expires May 15, citing Trump’s legal attacks; he congratulated Kevin Warsh, who cleared Senate Banking 13-11 along party lines hours earlier.
  • Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed jumped to 6.45% Wednesday, up 7 bps and the highest since mid-March, as the 10-year yield punched through 4.40% on hawkish FOMC tone.
  • MBA applications fell 1.6% for the week ending April 24 as the contract 30-year fixed climbed to 6.37%; refinances dropped 4% but purchase volume held a 21% YoY gain.
  • Case-Shiller posted a 0.7% YoY national gain in February — the ninth straight month inflation outpaced home price appreciation — with more than half of major metros now in negative annual territory.
  • FHFA’s HPI was flat in February with annual growth at 1.7%; the Mountain division is now down 0.7% YoY, the first major division to turn negative this cycle.
  • MBA’s Broeksmit backed the revised Basel III reproposal at House Financial Services Tuesday while pushing for a 100% MSA risk weight (vs. the current 250%) and reduced warehouse-line risk weights.
  • Fannie Mae reported $3.7B in Q1 net income with single-family acquisitions hitting a three-year high of $98.7B; Freddie Mac releases its Q1 results at 9:00 a.m. Thursday.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence ticked up 0.6 points to 92.8 in April — the highest reading this year — though references to prices, oil and war increased in write-in responses.
  • Q1 GDP advance estimate, March PCE, and Q1 Employment Cost Index all release at 8:30 a.m. Thursday; Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow sits at 1.2% as of Wednesday.
  • Two Harbors and CrossCountry Mortgage amended their merger agreement Tuesday, lifting the cash consideration to $11.30 per share from $10.80; TWO’s special meeting is set for May 19.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

  • Case-Shiller National HPI Up 0.7% Annually in February: S&P Cotality’s national index posted a 0.7% YoY gain in February, down from 0.8% in January, with the 10-City and 20-City composites at 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively. Chicago led at 5.0% YoY while Denver replaced Tampa as the weakest market at -2.2%; Los Angeles and Washington joined the list of decliners. https://press.spglobal.com/2026-04-28-S-P-Cotality-Case-Shiller-Index-Reports-Annual-Gain-in-February-2026
  • FHFA House Price Index Flat in February: U.S. home prices were unchanged month-over-month in February per the FHFA’s seasonally adjusted purchase-only index, with the 12-month change at 1.7%. Census-division readings ranged from -1.1% in the Mountain division to +0.6% in the South Atlantic; Mountain is down 0.7% YoY, while Middle Atlantic leads at +4.2%. https://www.fhfa.gov/reports/house-price-index/2026/4
  • HousingWire Tracker: Market Looks Like 2017, But Isn’t: Logan Mohtashami flagged a “chart daddy hat trick” of higher weekly pending sales, new listings and inventory through April 24, with new listings near pre-2020 norms and price cuts in a typical range. The framing argues the market is clearing out of fragility rather than heading into it. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/this-housing-market-looks-like-2017-but-isnt/
  • Cotality Sees Slow Thaw, Single-Digit Price Growth Ahead: Cotality’s principal economist Thom Malone described the U.S. housing market as finding a new equilibrium dominated by slower price growth, with low sales, slowly rising inventory and stalling prices reflecting a list-price-versus-willingness-to-pay mismatch. The base case is gradual, single-digit price growth with no sharp correction. https://www.cotality.com/press-releases/slow-home-price-growth-february-2026
  • Institutional SFR Ownership: Tiny Nationally, Concentrated Locally: Institutional single-family rental investors own just 0.59% of U.S. homes nationally, but they control most investor rentals in top Sunbelt and Midwest metros where their footprint is concentrated. The local-versus-national dispersion continues to drive disproportionate political attention. https://www.credaily.com/briefs/institutional-sfr-ownership-tiny-nationally-massive-locally/

MORTGAGE MARKETS

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

  • Fed Holds at 3.50%–3.75% in Bitterly Split 8-4 Vote: The FOMC held the funds rate steady for a third consecutive meeting Wednesday in an 8-4 vote — the first time four members have dissented since October 1992. Governor Miran voted for a 25 bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented over keeping the easing-bias phrasing about “additional adjustments.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm
  • Powell Plans to Stay on the Board of Governors: In what he framed as his last press conference as Chair, Powell signaled he intends to remain on the Board after his Chair term ends May 15, citing the Trump administration’s legal challenges and the importance of Fed independence. He said he had a “nice chat” with Warsh in January and that the transition would be “very normal.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-warsh-powell.html
  • Senate Banking Advances Warsh on Party Lines: The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines Wednesday to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate — the first fully partisan banking-committee vote on a Fed Chair nominee. The full Senate vote is expected the week of May 11, and the DOJ’s Friday decision to drop the Powell renovation probe was the linchpin for Sen. Tillis’s release of his hold. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/trump-fed-nominee-kevin-warsh-senate-approval.html
  • Broeksmit Backs Basel III Reproposal at House Financial Services, Pushes for MSA Recalibration: MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit testified Tuesday that the Fed/OCC/FDIC March 19 Basel III reproposal is “meaningfully better” than both the current bank capital framework and the abandoned 2023 endgame, but urged regulators to drop the MSA risk weight from 250% to 100% (calling the current treatment “punitive” and based on no empirical loss analysis), eliminate the 25% MSA cap on Common Tier 1 capital, and reduce the 100% risk weight on warehouse lines. The public comment period closes June 18. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/broeksmit-backs-revised-basel-iii-plan-before-house-committee-calls-for-changes/
  • Brookings: Reform FHLBs to Direct $58B/Year Into “Missing Middle” Construction: Aaron Klein and Chris Hughes published a 23-minute Brookings paper Sunday calling for Congress to amend the 1932 FHLB Act so that 25% of system advances flow to housing-related lending — specifically, direct construction loans to 5–49-unit “missing middle” projects at FHLB cost of funds plus 50–75 bps, with a minimum 20% affordability set-aside. The authors estimate a system-wide $175B housing portfolio could fund roughly 194,000 units annually, a 47% boost to multifamily starts, while keeping the 11-bank cooperative structure and consolidated obligations intact. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reform-the-federal-home-loan-banks-to-finance-the-housing-america-needs/
  • ABA, Trades Press VA on Mortgage EO Implementation: The American Bankers Association and eight other trade groups sent a joint letter Tuesday urging the VA to align collateral valuation standards with Fannie, Freddie, or FHA in line with President Trump’s March 13 executive order on access to mortgage credit. The associations also recommended adopting UAD 3.6 and reducing program friction and wait times. https://www.aba.com/advocacy/policy-analysis/va-letter-on-mortgage-eo
  • Fannie Mae Releases March Monthly Summary: Fannie released its March 2026 Monthly Summary on April 28, covering monthly and YTD activity for the gross mortgage portfolio, MBS and other guarantees, interest rate risk measures, and serious delinquency rates. The summary lands ahead of the same day’s FHFA HPI and Case-Shiller releases. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fannie-mae-releases-march-2026-monthly-summary-302755357.html

 

ECONOMIC NEWS

  • Q1 GDP Advance, March PCE, and Q1 ECI All Print Thursday at 8:30 a.m.: The BEA’s first read on Q1 2026 GDP releases simultaneously with March personal income and outlays (containing the PCE price index) and the Q1 Employment Cost Index. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast stood at 1.24% Wednesday morning, with Polymarket consensus pricing the 2.0%–3.0% range at the highest probability. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW/
  • Conference Board Confidence Edges Up to 92.8 in April: The Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 points to 92.8, beating the 89.0 consensus, with the Expectations Index up 1.2 points to 72.2. Dana Peterson noted comments about prices, oil and gas, and war increased in write-in responses, signaling underlying worries about how the Iran conflict will affect household finances. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-up-again-in-april-302755679.html
  • ADP Weekly Pay Insights Show Hiring Stabilizing: ADP Research reported U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending April 11, slightly below the downwardly revised 40,250 weekly gain in the prior period. The series is a leading indicator for the monthly ADP National Employment Report due May 6. https://payinsights.adp.com/
  • FOMC Statement Notes Iran Uncertainty, Energy Pass-Through: The Committee’s statement explicitly cited “the recent increase in global energy prices” as driving elevated inflation and called developments in the Middle East “a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.” Markets are pricing essentially no rate moves through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

INDUSTRY NEWS

  • Two Harbors and CrossCountry Amend Merger to $11.30 per Share Cash: Two Harbors and CrossCountry Mortgage announced an amended merger agreement Tuesday, raising the cash consideration to $11.30 per share from the prior $10.80 offer; the TWO Board unanimously endorsed the revised terms. A special TWO shareholder meeting is set for May 19, 2026, with closing expected in the second half of the year. https://www.businesswire.com/newsroom/subject/merger-acquisition
  • Outamation Integrates with Fannie SMDU and Freddie Resolve: Dallas-based Outamation announced that its OutamateMods loan modification platform is now fully integrated with Fannie Mae’s SMDU and Freddie Mac’s Resolve platforms, enabling a single end-to-end workflow across GSE, private investor, and performing-loan retention modifications. The company says clients are completing modifications two-to-three times faster with fewer touches. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/28/3282942/0/en/OutamateMods-Expands-to-Support-All-Loan-Modification-Types-with-Full-Fannie-Mae-SMDU-and-Freddie-Mac-Resolve-Integration.html
  • Data Centers Score $16B Record-Breaking Win for Michigan: A Related Companies and Blackstone-backed data center project in Michigan landed $16 billion in financing, the largest single investment in the state’s history, supporting Oracle’s expansion footprint. The deal underscores the continued capital tide running into AI infrastructure even as broader CRE remains capital-constrained. https://www.credaily.com/briefs/data-centers-score-a-16b-record-breaking-win-for-michigan/
  • Vornado to Buy Minority Stake in Manhattan High-Rise: Vornado Realty Trust announced an agreement to acquire a minority stake in a Manhattan high-rise, with major decisions on the asset to be made jointly with the co-owner. The transaction adds to the REIT’s recent string of selective Manhattan plays during a still-uneven NYC office recovery. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/
  • Jamestown Closes “Sweet” San Francisco Landmark Deal: Jamestown Properties announced the acquisition of a San Francisco landmark on April 28, joining a slow-but-meaningful flow of marquee West Coast trophy deals as opportunistic capital tests the bottom of the cycle. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/
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