Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for April 4

Unsurprisingly, Chair Powell’s final meeting as Chair ended with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.50–3.75% on April 29 over four dissents. Powell has also elected to remain on the Board through the DOJ probe of his building renovations. March core PCE prints came in at 3.2% YoY, and the quarterly “deflator” (part of the GDP release and measures the price change across all consumption in the quarter, annualized) came in at 4.5% for Q1 — meaning prices for what consumers actually bought during January-March rose at a 4.5% annualized pace. Evidence that inflation acceleration was already underway in December, January, and February — before Iran provided a clearer explanation. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%, jobless claims hit a 56-year low at 189,000, and pending home sales beat expectations. Regrettably, none of this news builds a case for the rate relief the housing industry has been waiting on.

HUD spent the week rescinding the 2024 energy-efficiency standards effective May 1, indefinitely delaying the remaining HOME Final Rule tenancy provisions (narrowed termination grounds that would have expanded tenant protections in HOME-assisted rental housing), and proposing revisions to the Equal Access to Housing rule with comments due June 29.

Meanwhile, MND’s 30-year fixed closed the week at 6.44%, MBA’s commercial delinquency rate climbed to 4.02% with multifamily and CMBS leading, and Newrez’s servicing data showed homeowners insurance premiums up 64% since 2021 to $2,625 — though 2025 growth slowed to 10%, which is being marketed as good news. The borrower-resilience narrative continues to hold because of equity cushions and pandemic-era refis, not because the underlying cost structure has improved; PulteGroup’s incentive load now sits at 10.9% of gross sales price, more than triple the pre-pandemic norm, which is the actual price of keeping entry-level demand alive.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% in a fractured 8-4 vote, the most FOMC dissents since 1992, in what was likely Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Chair. Federal Reserve
Q1 GDP rebounded to 2.0% but core PCE accelerated to 3.2% YoY in March, with the quarterly PCE deflator hitting 4.5% — the hottest reading in three years as the Iran war fed through to energy. BEA
Inflation is broad-based, not just energy. Wolf Richter notes that core services PCE rose 0.32% in March (3.9% annualized) and the 6-month core services run rate hit 3.7% — confirming inflation pressures predate and outlast the oil shock. Wolf Street
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest reading since September 1969, reinforcing a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market. DOL
Mortgage rates ended last week at 6.44% on the MND 30-year fixed, with low volatility giving way to a spike midweek before easing on Iran ceasefire headlines. Mortgage News Daily
Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March, beating consensus, with the Northeast (+4.4%) and South (+3.8%) leading despite higher rates. NAR
HUD/USDA formally rescinded the 2024 energy-efficiency standards for FHA- and USDA-financed new construction in a Federal Register notice effective May 1, citing affordability and a March 5 court vacatur. Federal Register
HUD indefinitely delayed the remaining HOME Final Rule provisions in an April 29 Federal Register action, freezing tenancy-addendum and underwriting changes that had been set to take effect April 30. Federal Register
Commercial mortgage delinquencies climbed to 4.02% in Q1 from 3.86%, with multifamily, office, and healthcare leading the increase. MBA
Newrez study: average homeowners insurance premiums up 64% over four years to $2,625, but 2025 growth slowed to 10% — the lowest pace since 2021 — even as Louisiana, Florida, and Texas remain at $4,000-plus. Mortgage Professional America

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

Pending home sales up 1.5% in March, beating expectations. NAR’s index extended an upwardly revised 2.5% February gain, with the Northeast up 4.4% and South up 3.8%, offsetting declines in the West (-2.6%) and Midwest (-1.3%). NAR
Case-Shiller national home price growth slowed to 0.7% YoY in February from 0.8% in January, the weakest annual print since mid-2023. The 20-City composite eased to 0.9% YoY, with more than half of the 20 metros now in negative territory. S&P Dow Jones Indices
Denver displaced Tampa as the weakest Case-Shiller metro at -2.2% YoY, with Seattle (-2.0%), Los Angeles (-0.8%), and Washington (-0.1%) joining the decliners. Chicago led the index at +5.0%, followed by New York (+4.7%) and Cleveland (+4.2%). HousingWire
Newrez: homeowners insurance premiums up 64% from 2021 to 2025 across its 1.2 million-loan escrowed servicing book, climbing from $1,597 to $2,625, but 2025 growth decelerated to 10%. Louisiana ($4,238), Florida ($4,060), and Texas ($3,952) topped the list; Arizona saw the steepest 2021–25 jump at 94%. Mortgage Professional America
PulteGroup boosted Q1 incentives to 10.9% of gross sales price, more than triple the pre-pandemic 3–3.5% norm, with CEO Ryan Marshall warning that without buydowns and other incentives the entry-level demand decline “would be even greater.” Newsweek

MORTGAGE MARKETS

MND 30-year fixed at 6.44% on May 1, down 1 bp on the day. The week saw an ultra-narrow 6.29–6.33% range break to 6.50% mid-week before settling lower on Iran peace-negotiation headlines. Mortgage News Daily
MND 30-year jumbo at 6.59%, FHA at 5.92%, VA at 5.94%, and the 7/6 SOFR ARM at 6.05% as of May 1, with the ARM falling 8 bps on the day as the curve responded to softer rate expectations. Mortgage News Daily
MBA mortgage applications fell 1.6% for the week ended April 24, with refinances down 4% and purchase up 1%. Refinances remained 51% above year-ago levels. The 30-year contract rate edged up to 6.37%. MBA
Newrez says delinquencies in its servicing portfolio remain below long-run norms despite the four-year insurance-cost shock, citing strong equity cushions and pandemic-era refis as the primary buffer for borrower performance. Separately, a Matic survey cited in the same report found 64% of mortgage lenders experience insurance-related issues frequently or somewhat frequently, with 37% reporting clients forced to a less expensive home. Mortgage Professional America
MBA Q1 commercial/multifamily delinquency report showed the parallel rise in multifamily delinquency to 0.7% (up from 0.5%) — a metric that bears directly on agency MBS performance and servicing economics. MBA via Connect CRE

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

FOMC held the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% in an 8-4 vote on April 29 — the most dissents at a single meeting since October 1992. Governor Miran preferred a 25 bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed the statement’s easing bias. Federal Reserve
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack issued a May 1 statement explaining her dissent, arguing that an easing bias is “no longer appropriate” given resilient activity, near-full-employment unemployment, and broad-based inflation pressure compounded by oil. Cleveland Fed
HUD and USDA published a Federal Register notice on May 1 rescinding the 2024 Energy Efficiency Standards for New Construction for HUD- and USDA-financed housing. The agencies cited affordability concerns, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s accelerated sunset of the §45L tax credit, and a March 5 federal court order vacating the original determination. MBA’s Bob Broeksmit publicly endorsed the move. Federal Register
HUD published an indefinite delay of remaining HOME Final Rule provisions in the April 29 Federal Register, freezing the tenancy-addendum revisions to 24 CFR 92.253 and the addition of 24 CFR 92.250(c) that had been on track to take effect April 30. The action effectively suspends new tenant-protection provisions in HOME-assisted rental housing pending further rulemaking. Federal Register
HUD published a proposed rule on April 28 revising “Equal Access to Housing in HUD Programs” (Docket FR-6518-P-01), reopening the 2012 and 2016 equal-access regulations across multiple parts including FHA-insured multifamily, Section 8, and HUD-acquired single-family property programs. Comments are due June 29, 2026. Federal Register
HUD announced a homelessness reform package on April 30 (“HUD Moving Forward on Bold Homelessness Reform”), continuing Secretary Turner’s repositioning of HUD’s homelessness paradigm following the agency’s earlier judicial appeal. HUD
MBA submitted a letter to HUD Secretary Scott Turner proposing enhancements to FHA multifamily programs when used in Opportunity Zones, framed around stimulating affordable housing production in distressed census tracts. MBA NewsLink

ECONOMIC NEWS

Q1 2026 advance GDP rose 2.0% annualized, up from 0.5% in Q4 but below the 2.3% consensus. The acceleration reflected upturns in government spending and exports and a pickup in investment, partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending. BEA
March headline PCE rose 3.5% YoY, core PCE 3.2% YoY — both in line with consensus but accelerating from prior readings as Iran-driven energy prices fed through. The quarterly PCE price index ran at a 4.5% pace, the highest since Q3 2022. CNBC
Wolf Richter’s analysis: the inflation acceleration predates the war. The PCE price index ran at 4–4.6% annualized in December, January, and February — before the Iran shock. March added an 11.6% monthly surge in energy PCE on top of that, but core services (60% of PCE) jumped 0.32% on the month at a 3.9% annualized pace, and the 6-month core services trend hit 3.7%. Wolf Street
Initial jobless claims of 189,000 for the week ended April 25, down 26,000 from the prior week and the lowest reading since September 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.785 million, the lowest in two years. DOL
Powell signals he will remain on the Fed Board after his chairmanship ends May 15, citing the unfinished DOJ inquiry into renovations at the Eccles building. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair on a party-line vote the same day. CNBC

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

MBA CREF Q1 Loan Performance Survey: overall commercial mortgage delinquencies rose to 4.02% from 3.86%. CMBS delinquencies climbed to 5.21% (from 4.97%), GSE-backed loans to 0.97% (from 0.63%), and FHA multifamily/healthcare to 0.96% (from 0.65%); life insurer portfolios edged down to 1.47%. Mortgage Professional America
Q1 office leasing rose 7.6% YoY per JLL, with positive net absorption for the third straight quarter; CBRE reported Q1 office asking rents up 2.2% YoY to $37.21, the fastest pace in six years. Single-asset office sales reached $11.5 billion in Q1, the strongest first quarter since 2020. CBRE Q1 2026 Office Report
Kimco Realty Q1 results: FFO up 4.5% to $0.46, leased-to-economic occupancy spread at a record 410 bps, leased 4.4 million SF with blended cash rent spreads of 11.3% (new leases +23.8%, renewals +12.0%). Kimco 8-K via SEC
Regency Centers Q1: same-property NOI up 4.4% YoY, FFO of $1.20 per diluted share, 1.5 million SF of comparable leases at blended spreads of 12.1% cash; reaffirmed 2026 guidance. The operating partnership priced $450 million of senior unsecured notes due 2033 at a 4.50% coupon. Regency Centers 8-K via SEC
Franklin BSP Realty Trust Q1 originated $467.9 million in core CRE loans at a 289 bp weighted spread, while its Agency Business originated $646.3 million in Fannie/Freddie/HUD multifamily loan commitments and grew its servicing portfolio by $10.3 billion to $58.1 billion. FBRT 8-K via SEC
San Francisco apartment rents averaged $2,737/unit in Q1, up 3% YoY per Kidder Mathews, marking a turn in fundamentals that has begun to draw multifamily investor attention back to a market that lagged most of the cycle. Commercial Real Estate Direct

INDUSTRY NEWS

Highlands Residential Mortgage acquired The Equitable Mortgage Corporation on May 1, the latest in a string of strategic combinations as larger originators continue to consolidate scale. The Truth About Mortgage
Piedmont Realty Trust released Q1 results on April 30, with a same-day announcement and a May 1 conference call covering quarterly performance and recent leasing activity in its office portfolio. GlobeNewswire
Healthcare Realty Trust Q1: Normalized FFO of $0.41 per share, same-store cash NOI growth of 6.9%, tenant retention of 93.5%, and $400 million in new unsecured delayed-draw term loan commitments expected to close in May. The company also repurchased 5.7 million shares at an average $17.38. Healthcare Realty 8-K via SEC
NNN REIT raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $3.53–$3.59 after a Q1 in which it closed 15 transactions for $145 million at a 7.5% initial cash yield and a 19-year weighted-average lease term; occupancy hit 98.6%. Daily Political
Newrez (Shane Ross, head of servicing) framed insurance as the new affordability variable, noting that “homeowners insurance has become a much larger component of housing costs” since 2021 even as overall delinquencies hold below historical averages. The data point to a borrower-resilience story driven by equity, but a coverage-affordability story increasingly driven by climate risk and reinsurance pricing. Mortgage Professional America