Living indoors has never been harder or more expensive. Since both Republicans and Democrats prefer to live indoors, we find ourselves with the first piece of meaningful housing-centered legislation since the Housing Act of 1949 (which authorized construction of 800,000 public housing units). The rate drop in early January put 5M households in the money for a refinance. Miami Leads Buyers’ Markets with 11.5 Months Supply. Miami is near the top for buyer-friendly markets with 11.5 months of inventory, though median list prices hold at $500,000 despite a 4.8% annual decline.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations continue to hum — surging 30% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with banks leading the recovery by increasing their lending volumes 74% year-over-year as interest rate volatility stabilized. Office financing recorded the most dramatic turnaround, with loan originations nearly doubling, while total commercial lending volumes for 2025 climbed an estimated 40% above 2024 levels, marking one of the strongest recoveries since the pandemic disruption.
Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim
Today’s newsletter was prepared by our AI platform ALFReD. Know Better.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Refinance Boom Potential: Early January rate drops to 6.04% put nearly 5 million homeowners “in the money” for refinancing—the highest level since early 2022. 1
- Mortgage-Free Milestone: Nearly 40% of U.S. homeowners now own their homes free and clear, up from 34.4% a decade ago, with West Virginia leading at 53.9%. 2
- Congressional Housing Win: House passes Housing for the 21st Century Act 390-9, streamlining development reviews and expanding affordable housing financing. 3
- Lending Standards Loosen: Mortgage credit availability rises 1.1% in January as lenders expand ARM, cash-out refi, and second home loan offerings ahead of spring season. 4
- Luxury Market Surge: Hamptons median price hits record $2.34M (+25% YoY) as Wall Street cash drives luxury sales over $10M up 75%. 5
- Negative Equity Rising: Over 1.1 million borrowers ended 2025 underwater—highest since early 2018—concentrated in recent FHA/VA loans. 1
- Commercial Lending Recovery: Q4 2025 commercial/multifamily originations surge 30% YoY, led by 74% jump in bank lending. 6
- Commercial lending surged 30% in Q4 2025 with banks leading the recovery at 74% growth, signaling renewed confidence as rate volatility stabilizes 1
- Office market shows first positive net absorption since 2021 with financing up 95% year-over-year, suggesting potential sector stabilization despite remote work challenges 1
- Multifamily rent growth returns positive at 0.2% after five months of decline, with MBA projecting market expansion to $400 billion in 2026 2 1
Residential Real Estate Markets
Miami Leads Buyer’s Markets with 11.5 Months Supply Miami tops buyer-friendly markets with 11.5 months of inventory, though median list prices hold at $500,000 despite 4.8% annual decline. 7
Hamptons Hits Record $2.34M Median Price Luxury market surge drives 25% price increase as Wall Street cash fuels $10M+ sales up 75% year-over-year. 5
NYC Foreclosures Rise 8% in 2025 Residential foreclosure filings reach 1,600, up 8% annually but below 2023 peak levels. 8
Mortgage Markets
5 Million Homeowners Gain Refi Opportunity January rate drop to 6.04% creates largest refinance-eligible population since early 2022, with affordability improving $164/month year-over-year. 1
40% of Homeowners Mortgage-Free Census data shows 39.4% of owner-occupied homes owned free and clear, up from 34.4% in 2014, with rural areas leading urban markets. 2
Credit Availability Expands 1.1% MBA index rises to 105.9 as lenders broaden ARM, cash-out refinance, and second home offerings for spring season. 4
Regulatory, Policy, and Economic Developments
House Passes Bipartisan Housing Package 390-9 Housing for the 21st Century Act streamlines development reviews, expands affordable housing finance, and helps community banks in rural markets. We prepared a deck on the Bill that can be found HERE. 3
NCUA Proposes Fifth Deregulation Round Credit union regulator seeks comments on conversion rule changes as part of ongoing burden reduction initiative. 9
Import Prices Edge Up 0.1% in December BLS reports modest price increases with exports up 0.3%, while annual import prices remained flat versus 3.1% export growth. 10
Negative Equity Hits 1.1 Million Borrowers Underwater mortgages reach highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent FHA/VA loans as home price growth slows to 0.6%. 1
Commercial Real Estate Markets (Including Multifamily)
MBA Reports 30% Surge in Commercial Lending for Q4 2025 → Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations jumped 30% in Q4 2025 versus prior year, with total 2025 volumes estimated 40% higher than 2024, marking strongest recovery since pandemic disruption. 1
Office Financing Leads Recovery with 95% Q4 Growth → Office loan originations nearly doubled year-over-year while industrial lending increased 23%, multifamily rose 22%, and healthcare properties advanced 20%, though retail loans fell 12% and hotel originations dropped 34%. 1
Multifamily Rent Growth Returns Positive → U.S. multifamily market posted 0.2% annual rent growth in January 2026 with average rents at $1,741, ending five consecutive months of negative movement, while occupancy rates stood at 94.5% nationally. 2
Commercial Financing Markets
Banks Lead Lending Recovery with 74% Growth → Depository institutions outpaced investor-driven lenders (46% increase) and CMBS issuance (5% growth) in Q4 2025, as rate stability drew banks back into commercial lending. 1
MBA Projects $400 Billion Multifamily Market in 2026 → Multifamily lending expected to expand 20% in 2026 after growing nearly 15% in 2025 to exceed $330B, with GSE support positioning market for sustained growth. 1
Mortgage Credit Availability Increases → The Mortgage Credit Availability Index rose 1.1% to 105.9 in January, with conventional lending standards loosening as rate volatility eases. 3
Commercial Lending Surges 30% in Q4 Multifamily originations jump with banks leading 74% increase while GSE volumes rise 4% year-over-year. 6
Commercial Servicing & Distress
NYC Residential Foreclosures Climb 8% in 2025 → Foreclosure filings for home loans in New York City increased 8% year-over-year to nearly 1,600 first-time filings, though still below 2023’s peak. 5
Hawaii Court Blocks BNYM Foreclosure Reversal → Appeals court ruled banks cannot unilaterally void completed foreclosures years later without borrower election, emphasizing proper postponement notice procedures. 6
Industry News
PulteGroup Adds Finance Veteran to Board Kristin Gannon joins with $150B+ transaction experience from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley backgrounds. 11
ICE Enhances MSP Servicing Platform Mortgage Technology division launches improved user experience and interoperability features for current customers. 12
Capital Square Completes $470M Richmond Portfolio → Glen Allen-based firm finished 352-unit Chasen development, its fifth Opportunity Zone project in Scott’s Addition representing total neighborhood footprint of 1,232 units. 7
Capital Square Raises $43M for Arizona Build-to-Rent → Company capitalized 320-unit Ironwood Homes development in Glendale through Regulation D private placement for Q3 2026 completion. 7
Freedom Holding Corp Assets Grow 25% to $12.38B → Diversified financial services group’s total assets reached $12.38 billion at end of Q3, up from $9.91 billion previous fiscal year. 8