THE BIG PICTURE: The bond market and the oil market spent last week playing Sybil and telling two different stories. Brent crude closed Friday at $88.10, up 4.6% on the day and roughly 16% on the week, after U.S. strikes on some 140 Iranian targets and Tehran’s re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cut vessel transits to six in an 18-hour window Thursday into Friday, versus 18 – 22 daily crossings earlier this month. Mortgage rates ignored all of it: Mortgage News Daily’s top-tier 30-year fixed held at 6.61% Friday, the lowest since May 14, as the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.52% – though the 30-year Treasury held at 5.06% and the curve still prices a hike within months, so the relief lives in the spread, not the Fed. The committee entered its pre-meeting blackout Saturday, July 18, with the week’s final data in hand: retail sales up 0.2% in June and jobless claims at 208,000, a two-month low. June housing starts rose 19% to a 1.427 million annual rate, but multifamily supplied the entire gain – single-family starts fell for a third straight month.

In Washington, CFPB got its second congressional grilling in two days when Acting Director Russell Vought appeared before Senate Banking Thursday, July 16, the same day the committee’s minority staff released a report putting the cost of the bureau’s cuts to consumers at up to $26.5 billion and Chair Tim Scott used his opening statement to push the CFPB Reform Act of 2026. The bureau’s roughly 650 Washington-area employees returned to a smaller headquarters last week under a new in-office mandate, while remote staff nationwide were told to relocate to Washington by November 2 or lose their jobs. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) jointly committed Thursday to notify banks within 72 hours of any material breach of confidential supervisory information, a year after the OCC’s own exam-data hack. The nearest housing clock still reads Thursday, July 24, when comments close on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Duty to Serve overhaul.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The nearest live for the Washington Tracker (regs and policy) deadline is Thursday, July 24, when comments close on FHFA’s Duty to Serve overhaul – four days before the July 28 – 29 FOMC meeting, which the committee entered blackout for on Saturday with an 87% hold priced.
  • Brent crude ended Friday at $88.10, up roughly 16% for the week, after weekend U.S. strikes on some 140 Iranian targets and a renewed Strait of Hormuz blockade cut transits to six vessels in one 18-hour stretch – and oil is now up about 40% year to date.
  • Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed held at 6.61% Friday, the lowest since May 14, as the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.52% – the mortgage market’s third straight day of ignoring an oil shock.
  • The 30-year TIPS yield closed at 2.87% Friday, the highest since its 2010 reintroduction, and the 6-month Treasury sits 30 basis points above the funds rate – the bond market’s way of pricing a hike within months despite the July hold
  • June housing starts jumped 19% to a 1.427 million annual rate, but the entire gain was multifamily (+76.3% to 513,000); single-family starts fell for a third straight month and permits dropped 3.0% to near cycle lows.
  • The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest since January, with contract signings down in all four regions – the leading read on August and September closings.
  • Builder confidence fell to 34 in July, the 15th straight month below 40 – the longest such stretch since 2012 – with 37% of builders now cutting prices.
  • Vought’s Senate Banking appearance Thursday came packaged with a minority-staff report claiming CFPB cuts have cost consumers up to $26.5 billion, and a relocation mandate giving remote staff until November 2 to move to Washington or lose their jobs.
  • The Fed, FDIC, and OCC committed to notify banks within 72 hours of any material compromise of confidential supervisory information – the first coordinated exam-data protocol since the OCC’s 2025 breach.
  • Prologis signed a record 67 million square feet of leases in the second quarter and raised guidance for the second time this year – and has until Wednesday, July 22 to make a formal offer for Britain’s Segro or walk away.
  • Foreclosure and forecast season both point the same direction: single-family inventory averaged 823,902 active listings in June – back to pre-pandemic levels – with nearly 39% of listings carrying a price cut.

Ten questions on today’s edition – rates, starts, and the CFPB’s moving van – at    The Recall.

THE WASHINGTON TRACKER

  • The tracker follows 30 specific requirements Washington has put on the books for housing and mortgage markets – the obligations created by the two March housing executive orders, the ROAD to Housing Act, the Supreme Court’s removal-power ruling, the federal-workforce reclassification order, and the Basel III bank-capital re-proposal – and as of the most recent Friday update, 18 of the 30 showed zero agency action.
  • The Basel workstream, the only one past the proposal line, got new intellectual ammunition while its comment period runs: the New York Fed published a three-part research series through Friday showing that banks met the original Basel III not by raising new capital but by draining equity from their nonbank affiliates – the internal plumbing regulators will be asked about as they finalize the re-proposal.
  • This week’s clocks: FHFA Duty to Serve comments close Thursday 7/24 · the FOMC meets July 28 – 29, now in blackout · comments on FHFA’s Suspended Counterparty Program and FHLBank New Business Activities proposals close August 12.

Washington Policy Implementation Tracker – all 30 requirements, live status, sources, and the docket, updated Fridays

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

June’s 19% housing starts jump is a multifamily story wearing a single-family headline.

  • Privately owned housing starts rose 19% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, per Friday’s Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) release – but units in buildings of five or more soared 76.3% to 513,000 while single-family starts slipped 0.2% to 895,000, a third consecutive monthly decline. Census Bureau, Jul 17
  • The 1.427 million pace was the highest since March and beat every estimate in the economist survey, driven by the apartment rebound after May’s 41% multifamily plunge. Bloomberg, Jul 17
  • The forward-looking number went the other way: permits fell 3.0% to 1.367 million, with single-family permits down 2.4% to 871,000 – near cycle lows, and the better predictor of the purchase pipeline lenders will see this fall. HousingWire, Jul 17

Pending home sales snapped a four-month streak – the contracts that won’t become August closings.

  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index fell 5.4% in June to 72.5, down 0.3% from a year earlier, with contract signings lower in all four regions month over month. NAR, Jul 16
  • The index sits back near January’s 70.9 all-time low, and the 5.4% drop was the largest monthly decline since December against a consensus call of just -0.5%. Advisor Perspectives, Jul 16
  • Regionally, the Northeast (+2.2% year over year) and Midwest held positive while the South and West slipped negative – the same affordability-driven split showing up in rents and inventory. Yahoo Finance, Jul 16

Builder confidence: 15 straight months below 40, and the price-cut share keeps ratcheting up.

  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell two points to 34 in July – below 40 for a 15th consecutive month, the longest such stretch since 2012 – with buyer traffic down two points to 23. NAHB, Jul 16
  • 37% of builders cut prices in July (up from 32% in May), the average reduction held at 6%, and 63% used sales incentives – the 16th straight month that share has topped 60%; regionally, the three-month averages put the West at 26 versus 45 in the Northeast and Midwest. ABA Banking Journal, Jul 16
  • NAHB Chairman Bill Owens pointed to the newly enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act – with its land-use, zoning, and regulatory-reform provisions – as the supply-side offset builders are waiting on; the Bipartisan Policy Center’s breakdown of what’s actually in the law is the reference document. Bipartisan Policy Center

Home insurance is now a bigger line item than property taxes in 15 states – the underwriting variable that used to be an afterthought.

  • Homeowners with a mortgage now spend a national average of $200 a month on home insurance – 8.5% of a typical $2,354 total monthly housing cost – but the share runs to 19.4% in Nebraska ($413 a month), 17.6% in Oklahoma, and 14.4% in Texas, per a LendingTree analysis of state-level costs. The MortgagePoint, Jul 15
  • In 15 states, insurance now costs more than property taxes – Tennessee homeowners pay nearly double ($284 versus $143 a month), Alabama close behind – and Colorado carries the highest absolute premium at roughly $463 a month, about $5,553 a year.
  • The stabilization signal comes with an asterisk: after double-digit increases in 2023 and 2024, premiums rose 6% last year – still triple the pace of core goods inflation, and per LendingTree’s Rob Bhatt, insurance “is having an outsized influence over people’s buying power” – which shows up in every debt-to-income calculation an underwriter runs in those 15 states.

Inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels – and 39% of it carries a price cut.

  • U.S. single-family active inventory averaged 823,902 listings in June, up from 628,000 in June 2024 and back to pre-pandemic norms, with new listings (310,221) exceeding pending contracts (299,502) and nearly 39% of active listings showing a price reduction. HousingWire, Jul 17

Redfin’s weekly read: buyers and sellers both blinked in the same week.

  • Pending home sales fell 2.2% week over week in the four weeks ending July 12 – the first decline in a month – while new listings dropped 1.2% to their lowest level since the start of 2026 and the median sale price sat roughly $800 shy of its all-time high. Redfin, Jul 16

Single-family rents are growing at half of last year’s pace – and splitting hard by region.

  • Single-family rents rose 1.3% year over year in May per Cotality, down from 2.6% a year earlier, with Northeast and Midwest markets offsetting outright softness in Florida and Texas – a fragmentation map that doubles as an SFR (single-family rental) underwriting guide. Scotsman Guide, Jul 17

One in five 25-to-34-year-olds lives with their parents – and the Urban Institute traced it directly to rent.

  • About 20% of Americans ages 25 to 34 live with their parents, nearly double the 11.8% share of 2005, and the pattern tracks housing costs: in the highest-rent metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), the median two-bedroom rent climbed 29% since 2005 (from $1,289 to $1,660 in 2024 dollars) versus 17% in low-cost metros. Urban Institute, Jul 15
  • The gap between high- and low-cost metros in the share of young adults living at home reached 5.8 percentage points in 2024 – versus 0.2 points in 2005 – and among the lowest earners in expensive metros, the share jumped 16.4 percentage points over two decades.
  • The mortgage mechanism: Urban’s prior research finds that young adults who live with parents between 25 and 34 are much less likely to form independent households or own homes a decade later – meaning today’s co-residence numbers are a forward forecast of the first-time buyer pool lenders will be competing over in the 2030s.

MORTGAGE MARKETS

Rates ended the week at 6.61% – the lowest since May 14 – while oil rose 16%. One of these markets is wrong.

  • Mortgage News Daily’s (MND) top-tier 30-year fixed held at 6.61% Friday, matching Thursday and marking the lowest level in nearly two weeks; you’d have to go back to May 14 for anything lower. Mortgage News Daily, Jul 17
  • The bond tape backed it up into the close: Friday opened with Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices better by .125 – .250, the 2-year at 4.13%, and the 10-year at 4.52% after finishing Thursday at 4.57%. Rob Chrisman, Jul 17
  • Futures markets priced an 86.7% probability of a hold at the July 28 – 29 meeting as of Saturday – meaning rate sheets this week trade on oil headlines and blackout silence, not Fed speeches. CME FedWatch via Beansprout, Jul 18

The Dose: The bond market spent the week treating a supply shock as a growth problem. Borrowers get the discount either way – until the gasoline shows up in the next CPI.

The other end of the curve never got the memo: the 30-year Treasury is holding 5.06%, and the curve is priced for a hike.

  • While the 10-year fell last week, the 30-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.06% – the high end of its range since 2006 – and the 30-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yield hit 2.91% Thursday before closing at 2.87%, the highest since the security’s 2010 reintroduction. Wolf Street, Jul 19
  • The curve’s message is more specific than the FedWatch odds: Friday’s 6-month yield sat 30 basis points above the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) – the bond market pricing a hike within the next few months even as it expects a July hold – with the 2-year implying another next year.
  • Why a mortgage desk cares about the long bond: the 30-year fixed borrows its floor from long-end inflation expectations, not the funds rate – so a 6.61% mortgage against a 5.06% 30-year Treasury means the spread, not the Fed, delivered last week’s relief, and spreads are the part that can reverse overnight.

The market’s own tripwire: housing has stalled every time rates crossed 6.64% – and they spent most of last week above it.

  • Weekly purchase indicators cooled as rates held above the 6.64% threshold that has capped housing activity throughout this cycle, with single-family inventory rising from 844,011 to 859,359 in the week ending July 17 and the seasonal decline in new listings arriving on schedule. HousingWire, Jul 18

A New Jersey servicing suit reads like a Regulation X exam checklist – worth a compliance-desk forward.

  • A homeowner sued Newrez LLC, doing business as Shellpoint Mortgage Servicing, in New Jersey Superior Court, alleging Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) and state-law violations tied to delayed loss-mitigation reviews and inconsistent payoff figures – including a reinstatement notice dated June 22 that allegedly arrived around June 30, one day before the July 1 deadline; the amended complaint landed July 16. HousingWire, Jul 17

REGULATORY AND POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Vought’s second hearing in two days came with a price tag attached: $26.5 billion, per Senate Banking Democrats.

  • Acting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Russell Vought testified before the Senate Banking Committee Thursday, July 16, at the hearing “The CFPB Semi-Annual Report: A New Day at the CFPB Through Reform” – the Senate bookend to his House appearance the day before. Senate Banking Committee, Jul 16
  • Chair Tim Scott used the hearing to advance the CFPB Reform Act of 2026 – statutory guardrails, coordination requirements with other regulators, and a narrower operating mandate – the legislative vehicle for making the bureau’s rollback permanent rather than reversible by the next director. Consumer Bankers Association, Jul 16
  • The other half of the story is staffing: roughly 650 Washington-area employees returned to a smaller headquarters last week under a 50% in-office mandate, remote staff nationwide were told to relocate to Washington by November 2 or lose their jobs, and Senator Elizabeth Warren said Thursday the overhaul has cost Americans as much as $26.5 billion – for lenders, the practical question is which supervision and rulemaking functions still have bodies attached in 2027. MS NOW, Jul 17

The Dose: The bureau’s headcount policy now runs through a moving van. “Fire people without firing them” is the union’s phrase; the org chart will show the result either way.

Your regulators just promised to tell you when they lose your data – within 72 hours.

  • The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued a joint statement Thursday establishing a coordinated approach for handling highly sensitive bank-examination information, including relying on bank management to flag which requested documents qualify. Federal Reserve, Jul 16
  • The operative commitment: notification to affected banks within no more than 72 hours of a reasonable basis to believe confidential supervisory information was compromised – plus restrictions on transmitting and storing sensitive data, with on-site review as the alternative; the protocol arrives a year after the OCC told Congress a cyber intrusion had exposed exam data on the institutions it supervises. American Banker, Jul 16

The New York Fed just published the awkward history lesson of Basel III – mid-comment-period on Basel III’s sequel.

  • A three-part Liberty Street Economics series concluding Friday shows that when the original Basel III minimums bound in 2015, bank holding companies largely met them not by raising outside capital but by draining equity from their nonbank affiliates – “equity reservoirs” where the median nonbank subsidiary held 16% of consolidated equity on just 2% of assets. Liberty Street Economics, Jul 16
  • The final installment argues the reallocation created a hidden fragility channel – weakened nonbank affiliates whose distress can spill back onto the bank – a mechanism that matters for anyone whose warehouse line or MSR (mortgage servicing rights) financing sits inside a bank holding company answering to the March Basel III re-proposal now in public comment. Fed in Print, Jul 17

ECONOMIC NEWS

The weekend the oil market stopped pretending: Brent at $88, transit at a trickle, and the Fed in blackout.

  • Brent closed Friday at $88.10 (+4.59%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $82.49 (+4.48%), both up roughly 16% on the week, after U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is again blocked, and Iranian attacks on facilities in five neighboring U.S.-allied states. IndexBox, Jul 18
  • Friday’s session captured the broader tone: the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.525% while stocks declined, gold slipped below $4,000, and WTI pushed through $80 – a flight to safety that happens to be the mortgage market’s best friend. The Mortgage Reports, Jul 17
The Dose: Ecommerce just became America’s largest retail category the same month pending home sales hit their lowest since January. The down payment didn’t disappear – it went to a checkout cart.

Retail sales: the consumer slowed to 0.2% – but strip out the gas pump and the story flips.

  • Advance retail and food services sales rose 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion, up 6.7% from a year earlier, with May revised up to +1.0%. Census Bureau, Jul 16
  • The print missed the 0.3% consensus and marked the smallest gain in five months – the counter-read: gasoline station receipts fell 5.3% on cheaper June pump prices, and sales ex-gasoline rose 0.7%, so the “slowdown” is mostly a price effect June’s CPI already celebrated. CNN Business, Jul 16

Retail sales: the consumer slowed to 0.2% – but strip out the gas pump and Americans are splurging, not saving for down payments.

  • Advance retail and food services sales rose 0.2% in June to $768.6 billion, up 6.7% from a year earlier, with May revised up to +1.0%. Census Bureau, Jul 16
  • The print missed the 0.3% consensus and marked the smallest gain in five months – the counter-read: gasoline station receipts fell 5.3% on cheaper June pump prices, so the “slowdown” is mostly a price effect June’s CPI already celebrated. CNN Business, Jul 16
  • Ex-gas-station sales jumped 0.72% on the month – a 9.0% annualized pace and the fifth straight strong month – with ecommerce up 18% year over year to become the No. 1 retail category, and Wolf Richter’s needle: core goods inflation was negative in June, so it’s real spending, possibly by households that have concluded a down payment isn’t worth saving for at these prices. Wolf Street, Jul 16

The Fed’s last data before the blackout: a labor market refusing to crack and a factory index at a 5 yr high.

  • Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 208,000 in the week ending July 11 – the lowest in over two months – with continuing claims down to 1.805 million. FRED, Jul 16
  • The same Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index jumped to 41.4, its highest since November 2021, rounding out the final major releases before the Fed’s communications blackout began Saturday, July 18. The Edge, Jul 16
  • Friday’s industrial production rounded it out at +0.1% for June with capacity utilization at 76.1% for a third straight month – stable, not overheating, and no help to either side of the hike debate. Haver Analytics, Jul 17

Consumer sentiment posted its second straight 10% jump – measured almost entirely before the strait closed again.

  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary July sentiment index rose 4.9 points to 54.4, the highest since February, with one-year inflation expectations easing to 4.2% from 4.6% and long-run expectations steady at 3.3%. ABA Banking Journal, Jul 17
  • The catch is the calendar: the survey ran June 23 – July 13, with more than 70% of interviews completed before the July 7 resumption of U.S. strikes and the gasoline reacceleration – the July final reading will measure the war, not the reprieve. Seeking Alpha, Jul 17

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Prologis signed a record 67 million square feet and raised guidance twice in one year – with a takeover clock expiring Wednesday.

  • Prologis reported second-quarter net earnings of $1.13 per diluted share versus $0.61 a year ago and Core FFO (funds from operations) of $1.63, raising 2026 earnings guidance to $4.40 – $4.55 on record leasing of more than 67 million square feet across its 1.3 billion-square-foot portfolio. PR Newswire, Jul 16
  • The company faces a July 22 deadline to make a formal offer for Segro, Britain’s largest warehouse REIT (real estate investment trust), or abandon its unsolicited bid – while year-to-date data center starts have already exceeded full-year guidance. Commercial Observer, Jul 16
  • The residential translation: industrial’s demand recovery at 95.5% occupancy is the clearest evidence yet that CRE capital is rotating back toward growth assets – the same debt investors who price multifamily construction loans, which is where June’s 76% multifamily starts surge will need financing.

Midwest multifamily is the trade: rents up, deals up 25%, and cap rates holding at 5.9%.

  • Midwest multifamily asking rents rose 0.7% in the first quarter and 1.5% year over year to $1,584, while vacancy ticked up 20 basis points to 6.1% and investment transactions ran 25% ahead of a year earlier at a median $196,100 per unit and a stable 5.9% average cap rate. Northmarq, Jul 17
  • The mortgage-desk read: the same Northeast/Midwest-versus-Sun-Belt split now runs through pending home sales, single-family rents, and apartment pricing simultaneously – regional concentration is becoming the dominant risk variable in both agency multifamily books and SFR credit.

INDUSTRY NEWS

Union Home bought its way deeper into non-QM – and says it isn’t done shopping.

  • Union Home Mortgage (UHM) acquired the assets of AmeriTrust Mortgage in a 45-day deal covering roughly 200 people, proprietary software, and offices – no servicing included – positioning UHM for a roughly $20 billion annual run rate; CEO Bill Cosgrove says the market “is continuing to consolidate” and more M&A (mergers and acquisitions) is likely. National Mortgage News, Jul 17
  • Non-QM – non-qualified mortgage lending, the segment serving self-employed and investor borrowers outside the standard documentation box – could reach 15% to 20% of UHM’s companywide volume within the first year, a striking allocation for a top-15 independent mortgage bank and a data point on where origination margin actually lives in a 6.6% rate world. HousingWire, Jul 17

    Ten questions on today’s edition – rates, starts, and the CFPB’s moving van – at  The Recall.

PODCAST HIGHLIGHTS

No Surrender marks episode 10 by arguing the credit box is tightening while the official messaging says the opposite (Greg Sher, Erin Dee, and Coby Hakalir – Great podcast)

  • Hosts Greg Sher, Erin D., and Coby Hackler dismantled LendingTree’s claim of 14.5 million vacant US homes – the figure includes seasonal and rental properties, and the actual homeowner vacancy rate sits at 1.1%, with roughly 800,000 homes for sale at any given time. Maine’s chart-topping 20.6% “vacancy” rate is almost entirely seasonal housing.
  • On starter homes, the panel cited NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) data putting soft costs at $131,000 in California before a shovel hits the ground, and an AEI (American Enterprise Institute) survey of 5,000-plus Americans in which support for new construction drops from 74% (near transit) to 58% (infill in existing single-family neighborhoods) – the closer to home, the softer the yes.
  • The condo lending changes drew the sharpest criticism: limited review retires August 3 in favor of full documentation review, and the reserve funding floor jumps from 10% to 15% of association budgets January 4. FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) estimates a $40-per-unit monthly dues increase; the hosts predict a “warrantability spiral” pushing borrowers into non-QM (non-qualified mortgage) loans. Trade groups including CHLA (Community Home Lenders of America) and The Mortgage Collaborative are seeking a one-year delay – the panel expects none.
  • The episode’s core data point: per Optimal Blue rate-lock data, conventional loans fell below 50% of all locks for the third straight month – the first such stretch on record – and non-conforming share exceeded FHA (Federal Housing Administration) share for the first time. Non-QM volume is expected up more than 60% year over year.
  • Coby’s read: expanded-access moves like the 620 minimum credit score removal and VantageScore adoption widen the funnel publicly while DU (Desktop Underwriter) tightening narrows approvals quietly on the back end – institutional risk management wearing an access-to-credit costume. Erin’s counter: too soon to draw the correlation, but worth monitoring alongside FHA delinquencies.
  • The industry has absorbed roughly two dozen TCPA (Telephone Consumer Protection Act) class actions since January, a surge the hosts tie to former CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) enforcement attorneys migrating to plaintiff-side firms as agency enforcement recedes. The one-to-one consent rule, in effect since January 2025, is a recurring tripwire.
  • On Trump accounts: a $1,000 federal seed for babies born 2025-2028, up to $5,000 annually from families and $2,500 tax-free from employers, with $10,000 usable toward a down payment. More than 6 million of 73 million eligible children have enrolled, and Michael Dell has committed $6.25 billion. The panel found rare bipartisan agreement – zero criticism from any chair.
  • The hosts reviewed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s new outside task forces – data (Raj Chetty, Doug McMillon, Kevin Murphy), balance sheet policy, and productivity/jobs (Marc Andreessen among them) – noting recommendations still require FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) adoption. Coby, previously a skeptic, cited Warsh’s Senate testimony line that “too many extreme measures creates imbalance in the market” as evidence of a moderate rather than performative chair.

Track everything: The Washington Policy Implementation Tracker – all requirements, live status, sources, and the docket – anytime. Updated Fridays.

Sources: Mortgage News Daily, Rob Chrisman, U.S. Census Bureau/HUD, Bloomberg, HousingWire, National Association of Realtors, Advisor Perspectives, Yahoo Finance, National Association of Home Builders, ABA Banking Journal, Bipartisan Policy Center, Redfin, Scotsman Guide (Cotality), CME FedWatch via Beansprout, Senate Banking Committee, Consumer Bankers Association, MS NOW, Federal Reserve, American Banker, Liberty Street Economics, Fed in Print, IndexBox, The Mortgage Reports, CNN Business, Quartz, FRED, The Edge Economic Consultancy, Haver Analytics, Seeking Alpha, PR Newswire, Commercial Observer, Northmarq, National Mortgage News

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