Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for June 01

Eight straight business days of holding or falling mortgage rates – ending Friday at 6.56%, down about 10 bps from a week earlier. That ten bps might be as good as the news gets. New-home sales came in at a 622,000 annual pace in April, the weakest April since 2022 and down 6.2% from a downwardly-revised March, with months’ supply of unsold new construction climbing to 9.4. Prices are a separate gauge entirely — the FHFA and Case-Shiller repeat-sales indices, which track the broader existing stock — and those are still rising, technically: up 1.7% over the year in nominal terms, with FHFA’s monthly reading managing all of 0.1% in March. Strip out inflation, though, and the “rising” quietly disappears — with PCE & CPI both at 3.8%, real home values are down roughly 2% over the year, and even March’s 0.1% nominal uptick was a loss in real terms. Refinances got trampled by the prior week’s higher rates (down 18%), and BoA claims that Americans are increasingly opting not to move at all — and when they do, they’re staying close to home & heading to the afforadable pastures of the Midwest.

The macro backdrop is not ideal. PCE inflation hit 3.8% — nearly double the Fed’s target, and for good measure matched by CPI at the same number — even as first-quarter growth was quietly marked down to 1.6% from the original 2.0%. The Treasury sold $742 billion of securities last week, T-bill yields now sit below inflation (re-read that), and the bond market has begun pricing in the rate hikes the Fed insists it isn’t planning. Washington took the holiday week off: no agency or committee produced anything inside the window, leaving the policy file to a recycled debate over capital-gains taxes on home sales and a fresh AEI report reminding everyone that the housing shortage is a zoning problem, not a financing one.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Mortgage rates ended the week meaningfully lower. MND’s 30-year fixed closed Friday at 6.56%, an eighth straight business day of holding steady or moving lower — down from 6.65% a week earlier. MNDmortgagenewsdaily
New-home sales hit their weakest April since 2022. Sales fell to a 622,000 annual rate, down 6.2% from a revised 663,000 in March, with months’ supply rising to 9.4. Zillow zillow
Home-price appreciation is barely positive. FHFA reported prices up 1.7% year-over-year in Q1, with the West South Central division down 0.7%. MND mortgagenewsdaily
Higher rates hammered refinances. MBA’s index fell 8.5% for the week ending May 22, refis down 18%, with the refi share at 37.5%, the lowest since June 2025. MND mortgagenewsdaily
Inflation is running hot and the bond market is bracing for hikes. With PCE and CPI both at 3.8%, the government auctioned $742 billion of Treasuries last week and the bond market is increasingly betting the Fed hikes later this year; Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% from 2.0%. Wolf Street wolfstreetCNBC
AEI says supply, not financing, is the binding constraint. A new Pinto–Peter report argues policy-induced costs and local feasibility barriers, not capital availability, are the primary brake on new housing production. AEI aei
Non-QM keeps filling the gap. Non-QM origination volume reached roughly $232 billion in 2025, up from about 3% of originations in 2020. The MortgagePoint themortgagepoint
Americans are moving less, and staying local. Bank of America data show mobility down, with Midwest metros like Indianapolis and Columbus gaining while coastal hubs lose residents. BofA Institute bankofamerica
Multifamily distress kept building. Three Jersey City portfolios backing 27 properties and an $84 million Houston apartment loan transferred to special servicing. Connect CRE Connect CRE
The capital-gains-on-home-sales idea is still circulating. Lawmakers and the administration continue to weigh ending or doubling the home-sale capital-gains exclusion, unchanged since 1997. NewsNation CNBC

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

New-Home Sales Hit Weakest April Since 2022. There were 622,000 (SAAR) new single-family home sales in April, 6.2% below the revised March rate of 663,000 and the lowest for any April since 2022. Zillow zillow
Inventory Built as Sales Cooled. The number of new homes for sale rose to 489,000, lifting months’ supply to 9.4 from 8.7, while the median sales price climbed to $422,500 per Census and HUD data. Mortgage News Dailymortgagenewsdaily
Home-Price Growth Slows to a Crawl. FHFA’s index showed prices up 1.7% year-over-year in Q1 and just 0.1% month-over-month in March, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices echoing the deceleration. Regional splits widened — Illinois led states at +7.3% and Elgin led metros at +10.8%, while Colorado fell 2.4% and Austin dropped 6.9%. Mortgage News Daily mortgagenewsdailymortgagenewsdaily
Americans Are Moving Less — and the Midwest Is Winning. Bank of America account data show overall mobility down, led by a drop in longer-distance moves, with Indianapolis, Columbus, Salt Lake City, and Raleigh drawing strong inflows while coastal hubs and some Sun Belt metros lose residents. Even in cities still attracting arrivals, rental payments are down year-over-year, attributed to oversupply and a younger, lower-income mix of newcomers. Bank of America Institute bankofamericabankofamerica

MORTGAGE MARKETS

Rates Closed the Week Much Lower. MND’s 30-year fixed finished Friday at 6.56%, an eighth consecutive session of flat-or-lower readings and down roughly nine basis points from the prior Friday’s 6.65%. MND framed the Iran war as the dominant variable — an end to hostilities would open room for further improvement, re-escalation would reverse it. Mortgage News Daily mortgagenewsdaily + 2
Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand. MBA reported applications down 8.5% for the week ending May 22, driven by an 18% drop in refis, even as refinance volume held 19% above year-ago levels. Purchase applications slipped just 0.4% and stayed 5% above a year ago; the refi share fell to 37.5%, the lowest since June 2025. Mortgage News Daily mortgagenewsdailymortgagenewsdaily
Non-QM Becomes the Bridge Between Income and Qualification. As self-employment, gig work, and asset-based wealth reshape borrower profiles, non-QM lending has grown from roughly 3% of originations in 2020 to about $232 billion in volume in 2025. Full-time independent workers more than doubled to 27.7 million between 2020 and 2024, leaving creditworthy borrowers whose cash flow does not travel well through conventional AGI-based underwriting. The MortgagePoint themortgagepointthemortgagepoint

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

No fresh agency or congressional actions posted within the strict freshness window — FHFA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD/FHA, Ginnie Mae, CFPB, Treasury, OCC, FDIC, the Fed, and the House and Senate committees were quiet across the holiday-shortened week’s tail and the weekend. Two policy items worth tracking:

AEI: Housing Supply Is Not Primarily a Financing Problem. Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter argue that in many markets, policy-induced costs and local feasibility barriers are the primary constraint on new housing production — more binding than capital availability, regardless of financial conditions. The report pushes back on financing-focused analyses from the Center for Public Enterprise and the Groundwork Collaborative that lean on a larger federal role in housing finance. AEI aeiaei
Capital-Gains-on-Home-Sales Relief Remains in Play (Policy Watch). The administration and lawmakers continue to float ending or expanding the capital-gains exclusion on primary-home sales — through Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s “No Tax on Home Sales Act” and the bipartisan “More Homes on the Market Act,” which would double the $250,000/$500,000 exclusions unchanged since 1997. NAR estimates 34% of homeowners could exceed the single-filer exemption and 10% the married-filing-jointly limit, though analysts note any change requires an act of Congress. NewsNation CNBC + 2

ECONOMIC NEWS

Inflation Ticked Higher in April. The PCE price index rose 0.4% on the month and 3.8% year-over-year, with core PCE up 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually; real income fell and the saving rate slipped to 2.6%. The reading complicates the case for near-term Fed rate cuts. BEA BEARISMedia
Treasury Supply Surges as the Bond Market Bets on Hikes. The government sold $742 billion of Treasury securities last week across 10 auctions ($504 billion in bills, $238 billion in notes), with T-bill yields near 3.6%–3.65% now sitting below the 3.8% inflation rate. Wolf Richter argues the Fed is behind the curve and that the bond market is increasingly positioned for belated rate hikes beginning later this year. Wolf Street wolfstreetwolfstreet
First-Quarter Growth Revised Down to 1.6%. The second GDP estimate cut Q1 growth to a 1.6% annualized pace from the initial 2.0%, with traders pricing the Fed to stay on hold and some odds its next move is a hike. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled openness to a cut but is likely to face FOMC resistance, as tariffs and the Iran war keep inflation elevated. CNBC CNBCCNBC

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Multifamily Loans Keep Heading to Special Servicing. Three Jersey City portfolios backing 27 apartment properties (roughly $94 million across BMARK and JPMDB deals) transferred to special servicing after going delinquent, all underwritten below a 1.10x coverage with heavy deferred maintenance. Separately, the 793-unit Weston Medical Center Apartments near Houston’s Texas Medical Center ($84 million FREMF loan) moved to special servicing as expenses outran net cash flow. Connect CRE Connect CREConnect CRE
NYC Deal Flow Holds Up. New York City recorded 151 transactions totaling $262 million in the 24 hours before 4 p.m. Friday, May 29, led by a $31 million Long Island City retail sale at about $1,300 per square foot. In the West Village, an eight-unit multifamily building with ground-floor retail at 605 Hudson Street traded for $14.7 million. The Real Deal The Real DealThe Real Deal

INDUSTRY NEWS

Beeline Moves to Fold In Its AI Partner. Beeline Holdings signed a non-binding letter of intent to acquire MagicBlocks, an AI real-estate technology firm behind Beeline’s “Bob” chatbot, in which it already holds roughly 47.6%. Beeline credited the platform with an 8% lift in lead-to-lock conversions at no incremental cost. SEC 8-Ksecsec