Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for June 11

Inflation crossed 4% for the first time in three years, with May CPI up 0.5% on the month and 4.2% annually — the highest reading since April 2023. Energy did most of the work, with gasoline up 40.5% year-over-year, while core inflation undershot expectations at 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually. Mortgage rates, miraculously, did almost nothing in response. The Fed meets June 17 for Kevin Warsh’s first turn in the chair, with markets priced for a hold and a growing minority now entertaining a hike rather than the cut that was January’s base case. The housing data flipped the script with upbeat news: existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May to a five-month high of 4.17 million, the median price set a record $429,300 in its 35th consecutive month of annual gains, and first-time buyers made up 35% of purchases — the highest share since June 2020. Applications rose 10.8%, refinances 15%. Only the luxury tier kept unwinding, with top-end list prices down 1.4% annually and 8.5% below their 2023 peak.

Bill Pulte is set to add acting Director of National Intelligence to his FHFA directorship and Fannie/Freddie chairmanship on June 19, an arrangement that has stalled reauthorization of FISA Section 702 — Democrats claim they won’t renew the expiring surveillance authority while he’s the pick, though the reauthorization most likely clears regardless. Big news — the White House named Brian Johnson, a former bureau deputy director, to run the CFPB, its first permanent pick after a year of acting directors and technical nominations at an agency it has tried to close. On the capital side, Berkshire’s pending Taylor Morrison acquisition became the fourth public-homebuilder take-private in twelve months, with the top 10 builders now holding 46% of the market against 27% a decade ago.

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Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Inflation breaks 4% for the first time in three years. May CPI rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% annually — the highest since April 2023 — though a softer-than-expected core reading kept markets calm. CNBC
Mortgage rates shrugged it off. Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed slipped 0.01% to 6.67% on June 10, essentially flat for the week after CPI landed in line. Mortgage News Daily
Existing-home sales hit a five-month high. May sales rose 3.2% month-over-month and year-over-year to a 4.17 million pace, with the median price setting a record $429,300. NAR
First-time buyers came back, making up 35% of May purchases — the highest share since June 2020. NAR
The White House picked Brian Johnson to run the CFPB, tapping a former bureau deputy director and Vought ally for an agency the administration has spent the year trying to shrink. Reuters
Pulte’s intel move is now a spy-powers crisis. Trump asked Congress for a short-term FISA extension as Democrats refused to reauthorize Section 702 while the FHFA director is set to take over ODNI on June 19. Politico
Applications jumped 10.8% for the week ending June 5, led by a 15% refinance gain. HousingWire
Berkshire’s Taylor Morrison deal signals a bottom. Whelan Advisory reads the acquisition as the fourth public-homebuilder take-private in a year — evidence sophisticated capital thinks the cycle has turned. Whelan Advisory
Luxury is still unwinding. May luxury list prices fell 1.4% annually and sit 8.5% below their 2023 pandemic peak, with only Minneapolis and Boise fully recovered. Realtor.com
Small business mood sours, with NFIB optimism falling to 95.3 — its weakest since October 2024 — on fuel-cost pressure. NFIB

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

Existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May to a 4.17 million annualized pace. Sales climbed both month-over-month and year-over-year to the highest level since December, beating forecasts despite mortgage rates well above their early-year lows. NAR
The median price set a record $429,300, up 1.3% from a year ago — the 35th straight month of annual gains.Inventory rose 3.3% to 1.55 million homes (4.5 months of supply), and first-time buyers made up 35% of purchases, the highest share since June 2020. NAR
Luxury list prices fell 1.4% year-over-year in May to $1,283,432, leaving the top tier 8.5% below its May 2023 pandemic peak. Realtor.com found only Minneapolis-St. Paul and Boise City have fully surpassed their pandemic-era highs, while five markets — including San Francisco — have given back every gain and fallen below pre-pandemic baselines. Realtor.com

MORTGAGE MARKETS

The 30-year fixed held at 6.67% on June 10, down a single basis point and flat for the week. With May CPI arriving on forecast, lenders had little reason to move; war-related headlines drove the only meaningful intraday volatility. Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage applications rose 10.8% for the week ending June 5. Refinance volume jumped 15% and purchase applications rose 7% even as the 30-year contract rate edged up to 6.6%, a partial rebound from the Memorial Day-adjusted prior week. HousingWire
Mortgage credit availability inched up 0.1% to 108.0 in May. The modest loosening came almost entirely from jumbo ARM programs; MBA’s Joel Kan noted nine-month-high rates pressured buyers and refinancers while lenders largely held their offerings steady. HousingWire

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

The White House picked Brian Johnson to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Johnson — a former CFPB deputy director under the first Trump administration and an ally of acting Director Russ Vought — would give the bureau a Senate-confirmable permanent head as the administration continues its effort to wind the agency down. Reuters
Pulte’s ODNI move has pushed Section 702 to the brink of lapsing. Trump asked Congress for a short-term extension of the warrantless surveillance authority — which expires Friday — after Democrats vowed to block the bipartisan three-year reauthorization while the FHFA director is set to take over national intelligence on June 19; a June 5 Senate procedural vote already failed 47-52. Politico
The dual mandate clouds the FHFA agenda. Pulte will keep his FHFA post and Fannie/Freddie chairmanship while serving as acting DNI, a stretch industry observers say could slow progress on a potential GSE IPO, LLPA revisions, and credit-score adoption. Just the News

ECONOMIC NEWS

CPI rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% — the highest since April 2023 and the first reading above 4% in three years. Energy did the damage, up 3.9% on the month and 23.5% year-over-year (gasoline up 40.5% annually), while core CPI rose a cooler-than-expected 0.2% and 2.9% annually. CNBC
The print lands a week before the Fed’s June 17 decision — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. Markets had priced a near-certain hold before the report, but sticky inflation paired with a firm labor market has a growing number of analysts floating the once-unthinkable: that the next move could be a hike rather than a cut. CBS News
Small business optimism fell 0.6 points to 95.3 in May, the weakest since October 2024. The Uncertainty Index rose to 91, and a net 36% of owners reported raising prices — the highest since March 2023 — with fuel costs cited as the central pressure point. NFIB

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Multifamily asking rents rose for a second straight month to $1,767 in May, up 0.3% sequentially but just 0.2% year-over-year. New York led the major metros at 1.2% monthly growth while Phoenix lagged at -0.4%; transaction volume stayed subdued on Iran-war uncertainty and higher-for-longer rates. Multi-Housing News(Borderline: this Yardi Matrix May report published ~June 8, just outside the strict 48-hour window — flagging it so you can drop it if you want a clean window.)

(CRE remains the thin section in-window. Commercial Real Estate Direct logged several June 9 financings and trades, but those sit behind a subscription wall I couldn’t verify to link-integrity standard.)

INDUSTRY NEWS

Whelan Advisory reads Berkshire Hathaway’s pending Taylor Morrison acquisition as a signal the housing cycle has bottomed. The deal is the fourth public-homebuilder take-private in twelve months — after Tri Pointe, United Homes, Landsea, and MDC — concentrating roughly 4.5% of new-home sales into long-term hands as the top 10 builders’ market share hits 46%, up from 27% a decade ago. Whelan Advisory
MISMO published an updated Property and Valuation Services procurement dataset to standardize how lenders, AMCs, and appraisers exchange valuation orders. The specification replaces legacy form-based ordering with a structured, data-driven framework built for the UAD 3.6 transition, which becomes mandatory for all GSE appraisal submissions on November 2. HousingWire