Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 27

Could the MLS finally get tapped out by Compass and Zillow’s competing pre-marketing platforms? CMLS Pushes Back Against Pre-Marketing Trend, Warns It Threatens Market Transparency — warning that pre-marketing strategies and platforms could fragment the housing market and hide important data. Home sales contract cancellations hit 14.7% of homes under agreement in February. That’s up from 12.8% a year earlier, reflecting growing buyer uncertainty amid rising rates and geopolitical volatility.

Hispanic Households Added 441,000 New Owners in 2025, Largest Single-Year Gain on Record. Zillow Downgrades 2026 Housing Outlook, Models Range of Scenarios Based on War Duration. Zillow had originally forecast a 4.3% gain in existing home sales. Chief Economist Mischa Fisher wrote that 2026 was expected to be a “reset year” (begs the question: how many reset years are we going to have to endure???). The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act “risks deepening the very problems it claims to solve.” AEI Senior Fellow Tobias Peter argues the bill misdiagnoses institutional investors — who own less than 1% of single-family housing stock — as a primary cause of unaffordability. Peter contends the legislation drives policy toward federal overreach rather than addressing underlying supply constraints through market-based solutions.

CMBS delinquencies fell to 7.14% in February, with improvements across most sectors despite a higher 8.75% rate when including matured balloons. But a $100B+ 2026 maturity wall looms, with over half of loans expected to fail at payoff — underscoring ongoing distress, especially in office.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Freddie Mac: 30-Year Fixed Surges to 6.38%, Highest Since September 2025. The Iran conflict has reversed the rate trajectory that briefly brought rates below 6% in late February.
  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Plunge 10.5% as Rate Shock Hits Spring Demand. Refinance apps fell 15% and purchase apps dropped 5% for the week ending March 20; the 30-year fixed climbed to 6.43%.
  • BLS: Import Prices Jump 1.3% in February, Largest Monthly Gain Since March 2022. Export prices rose 1.5%, complicating the Fed’s inflation outlook and keeping Treasury yields elevated.
  • Jobless Claims Edge Up to 210,000; Continuing Claims Drop to Lowest Since May 2024. Continuing claims fell 32,000 to 1.819 million, indicating ongoing labor market stability despite macro headwinds.
  • Zillow Revises 2026 Sales Forecast Downward on War-Driven Rate Uncertainty. If elevated rates persist through year-end, existing home sales could contract YoY rather than grow the originally projected 4.3%.
  • KB Home Cuts Full-Year Delivery Guidance by 1,000 Units Amid Softening Demand. The builder lowered housing revenue guidance by approximately $450 million following a weaker Q1.
  • AEI: 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Risks Deepening the Problems It Claims to Solve. AEI Housing Center’s Tobias Peter argues the bill misdiagnoses institutional investors as a primary cause of unaffordability and steers policy toward federal overreach rather than market-based supply solutions.
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Revise Condo Insurance and Project Standards. New rules relax replacement cost coverage requirements and raise allowable deductibles, but eliminate limited reviews — a trade-off that may ease insurance costs while increasing lender burdens.
  • Mortgage News Daily: Rates Leap to Another Multi-Month High Thursday as Global Markets Lose Ground.Average 30-year fixed rates have been at or near their highest levels in 7–8 months for the fourth consecutive day.
  • Wolf Street: Purchase Mortgage Applications Down 35% from 2019 as Spring Selling Season Turns to “Dud.” Forward-looking demand indicators remain near rock-bottom levels, signaling another frozen spring for home sales.

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

MORTGAGE MARKETS

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

  • AEI Housing Center: 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act “Risks Deepening the Very Problems It Claims to Solve.” In a March 25 analysis, AEI Senior Fellow Tobias Peter argues the bill misdiagnoses institutional investors — who own less than 1% of single-family housing stock — as a primary cause of unaffordability. Peter contends the legislation drives policy toward federal overreach rather than addressing underlying supply constraints through market-based solutions. https://www.aei.org/articles/washingtons-housing-fix-isnt-a-fix/
  • AEI Releases February 2026 National Home Price Appreciation Index. Published March 26, the latest HPA data from the AEI Housing Center provides updated national and metro-level price trends.https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-national-home-price-appreciation-hpa-index-february-2026/
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Revise Condo Insurance and Project Standards. New GSE rules relax replacement cost coverage by permitting actual cash value on roofs and raise allowable deductible levels — changes that should lower insurance costs for condo projects and owners. However, the GSEs also eliminated limited reviews for condo projects, which lenders say will increase burdens. Reserve requirements rose from 10% to 15% of annual budgeted assessment income, which may push HOA dues higher and pressure borrower affordability. FHFA Director Pulte said the changes replace “a disruptive and expensive Biden insurance mandate with commonsense policies.” https://www.housingwire.com/articles/insurance-is-having-a-growing-impact-on-condo-affordability/
  • FHFA Director Pulte Teases Additional Cost-Reduction Policy “In the Next Week or Two.” Speaking to Semafor on March 19, Pulte said a new proposal would target industries that have “ripped off American consumers for too long,” without elaborating. https://www.semafor.com/article/03/19/2026/fhfa-chief-teases-new-housing-policy

ECONOMIC NEWS

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

  • Trepp: February CMBS Delinquency Rate Fell to 7.14%, Down from 7.47% in January. Office delinquencies retreated 114 bps to 11.20% after hitting a record 12.34% in January. Multifamily dipped 9 bps to 6.85%, retail dropped 74 bps to 6.30%, and industrial edged up 5 bps to 0.67%. Lodging rose 38 bps to 5.94%. Including performing matured balloons, the overall rate would be 8.75%. https://yieldpro.com/2026/03/multifamily-cmbs-delinquency-rate-lower-in-february-2
  • Commercial Observer: CMBS Office Distress Hits 2026 Maturity Wall. More than $100 billion in CMBS loans mature in 2026; Morningstar DBRS expects over half to fail at maturity repayment, a sharp drop from payoff rates above 75% in recent years. Trepp’s “Hard Maturity Playbook” found that among 2019-originated five-year loans, only 42% paid off at or before maturity, with nearly half failing — reflecting aggressive leverage at peak pricing.https://commercialobserver.com/2026/03/cmbs-loans-office-distress-2026/
  • MBA Q4 2025 Commercial Delinquency Report: Mixed Results Across Capital Sources. Fannie Mae loan delinquencies increased for the second straight quarter. MBA noted elevated CMBS stress in certain property sectors but said overall performance remains resilient. The real test comes as a wall of maturities meets higher-for-longer rates through 2026. https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2026/march/mba-newslink-wednesday-march-25-2026/
  • Industrial Construction Starts Drop as 2026 Begins. Commercial Property Executive reported declining industrial starts even as absorption remains strong. Construction is down 63% from 2022 per JLL, with demand surging from reshoring, manufacturing, and data centers. https://www.commercialsearch.com/news/

INDUSTRY NEWS

Sources: Mortgage News Daily, Freddie Mac, MBA, BLS, DOL, FHFA, AEI Housing Center, Wolf Street, HousingWire, CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, Trepp, Commercial Observer, Yield PRO, Zillow, Redfin, Semafor, MBA Newslink, Commercial Property Executive, IBTimes

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