Daily Dose of Real Estate

Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 3

House-buying power rose to $417,000 in December 2025, about 5% above the $396,000 median list price—marking the first time in more than three years that the typical buyer’s budget exceeds what sellers are asking. That’s a welcome shift, but the broader affordability picture remains tight: NAHB estimates that 52% of U.S. households—roughly 70 million—still can’t afford a $300,000 home, and the median price of a new home is expected to reach $410,000 in 2026. On Capitol Hill, the Senate is preparing for a procedural vote on the bipartisan “Housing for the 21st Century Act,” which passed the House in February and is likely to be revised before moving forward.

Multifamily markets showed stark contrasts in January with transaction volumes plummeting 25% year-over-year to $8 billion while prices remained stable, as institutional capital returns amid Texas distress where $818 million in CRE loans face March foreclosure auctions.Meanwhile, Fannie Mae completed a $961 million CAS tender offer and NYC’s $21 billion Sunnyside Yard project seeks Trump administration backing, highlighting active capital markets and massive infrastructure investment needs.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

Table of Contents

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Senate Housing Bill Vote: The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the bipartisan “Housing for the 21st Century Act” that passed the House in February, with senators expected to make changes before sending it back to the House.
Housing Inventory Crisis Deepens: New analysis reveals 36 states still have less available inventory than 2019 levels, with Chicago and Connecticut markets showing nearly 70% fewer homes for sale despite national headlines claiming inventory improvements.
Five Markets Poised for Recovery: Detroit, Cleveland, Memphis, Jacksonville, and Dallas are positioned for rapid housing market recovery if mortgage rates continue falling, with homeowners holding rates between 4.1%-4.3% versus national average of 3%-4%.
Building Material Price Growth Slows: Residential building material prices rose at slower rate in January 2026, marking first decline in price growth rate since April 2025, with metal products still rising while wood products show declines.
Housing Affordability Crisis Deepens: NAHB analysis shows 52% of U.S. households (70 million) cannot afford a $300,000 home, while median new home price reaches $410,000 in 2026.
Spring Market Optimism: House-buying power surpassed national median list prices for the first time in over three years as of December 2025, with 30-year rates dipping below 6% in late February 2026.
Fannie Mae CAS Tender Results: Fannie Mae announced results of its $961 million tender offer for Connecticut Avenue Securities notes, with settlement expected March 3, 2026.
Tariff Relief Bill Introduced: Senators Jacky Rosen and Chris Coons introduced the Housing Tariff Exclusion Act to exempt key homebuilding materials from tariffs, with NAHB reporting 60% of builders already seeing cost increases.
Multifamily sales volume plummeted 25% YoY in January to $8 billion, with mid/high-rise trades falling 39% while institutional capital shows signs of returning to the market 1
Texas foreclosure crisis intensifies with $818 million in CRE loans flagged for March auctions, marking the fourth consecutive month above $800 million with 70% being apartment complexes 2
Fannie Mae completes $961 million CAS tender offer across 23 series of Connecticut Avenue Securities notes, with settlement expected March 3rd as GSE manages credit risk exposure 3
NYC’s $21 billion Sunnyside Yard housing project seeks federal backing from Trump administration for 12,000-unit development over active rail lines in Queens 4
Veris Residential $3.4 billion acquisition by Affinius Capital consortium expected to close Q2 2026, potentially boosting multifamily transaction volumes 1
FTSE NAREIT index gains 0.26% while 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.949% amid geopolitical tensions affecting commercial real estate financing costs 4

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

The residential market shows stark regional divides in inventory levels while spring 2026 emerges as potentially the first favorable buying season in three years due to improved affordability metrics.

HOUSING INVENTORY CRISIS REVEALS GEOGRAPHIC DIVIDE 1

36 states still show fewer homes for sale than 2019 pre-pandemic levels
Texas inventory has increased roughly 400% since pandemic lows, creating regional imbalance
Chicago and Connecticut face severe shortages with nearly 70% fewer homes available than 2019
National inventory remains 15% below 2019 levels despite 9% year-over-year increase
Sun Belt markets show abundance while Midwest/Northeast face continued scarcity

FIVE MARKETS POSITIONED FOR RAPID RECOVERY IF RATES FALL 2

Detroit, Cleveland, Memphis, Jacksonville, and Dallas identified as markets poised for quick rebound
Homeowners in these metros hold mortgage rates between 4.1%-4.3% vs national average of 3%-4%
Smaller “rate gap” makes moving more financially feasible when current rates drop
Cleveland highlighted for “affordability elasticity” with median listing price around $247,115
Dallas expected to see more activity in mid-to-upper price points rather than starter homes
Detroit market anticipated to be “hyperlocal and hyperneighborhood-specific” in inventory surge

SPRING MARKET SHOWS PROMISE WITH IMPROVED BUYING POWER 3

National house-buying power reached $417,000 in December 2025, about 5% above $396,000 median list price
First time in over three years that typical buyers have more budget room than sellers are asking
30-year mortgage rates dipped below 6% in late February 2026 for first time since 2022
Spring 2026 positioned as first favorable home-buying season in three years

WEST PALM BEACH LUXURY MARKET OUTPERFORMS 4

Median sale prices up 10.7% year-over-year vs 4.4% nationally in January 2026
Pending home sales surged 30.0% vs national decline of 3.6%
Homes sold increased 11.2% against national drop of 3.2%
99 median days on market compared to 69 nationally

MORTGAGE MARKETS

Mortgage market dynamics show fundamental shifts in rate composition among homeowners, with refinancing activity surging as rates approach 6% threshold.

MORTGAGE RATE COMPOSITION SHIFTS DRAMATICALLY 5

21.2% of mortgaged homeowners now have rates of 6% or higher (Q3 2025), up from 17.1% year earlier
Only 20% of homeowners have rates below 3%, smallest share since late 2021
More homeowners carry rates above 6% than below 3% for first time in five years
78.8% of homeowners have rates below 6%, lowest proportion since 2015
Current average weekly mortgage rates at 5.98%, down from 6.76% year ago

REFINANCING ACTIVITY SURGES ON RATE DECLINE 5

Refinance applications have risen 150% year-over-year with rates near 6%
Homeowners with rates above 6% finding meaningful savings opportunities
Economists expect continued activity increases if rates remain near 6% or move lower
Not the “once-in-a-generation opportunity” seen in 2020 but significant for affected borrowers

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Congressional action advances on housing legislation while new bills target construction cost relief, and Fannie Mae completes major credit risk transfer activity.

SENATE ADVANCES BIPARTISAN HOUSING PACKAGE 6

Senate set for procedural vote Monday on “Housing for the 21st Century Act”
Bill overwhelmingly passed House in early February with bipartisan support
Includes GAO study of federal housing program gaps and HUD HOME program modernization
Senators expected to make changes requiring House re-approval
Expected to incorporate aspects of ROAD to Housing Act (Scott-Warren)

HOUSING TARIFF EXCLUSION ACT INTRODUCED 7

Senators Rosen (D-NV) and Coons (D-DE) target construction cost relief
Would create automatic exemptions for many building materials from tariffs
Allows importers to apply for exemptions on other essential construction inputs
NAHB reports 60% of builders already seeing cost increases from current tariffs
Aims to reduce costs for American home buyers and renters

FANNIE MAE COMPLETES $961 MILLION CAS TENDER OFFER 8

Fixed-price cash tender offers for Connecticut Avenue Securities notes completed
$961 million in original principal amount validly tendered by February 27 deadline
Covers various CAS note series from 2017-2023 vintages
Settlement expected March 3, 2026
BofA Securities as lead dealer manager, Wells Fargo Securities as dealer manager

ECONOMIC NEWS

Manufacturing sector continues expansion despite tariff challenges while building material price growth slows and housing affordability crisis deepens.

BUILDING MATERIAL PRICE GROWTH SLOWS TO START 2026 9

Residential building material prices rose at slower rate in January 2026
First decline in price growth rate since April 2025
Building material prices up 1.0% monthly and 3.3% year-over-year, lowest since July 2025
Metal products continue price increases: metal molding/trim up 48.3%, nonferrous metal/cable up 19.7%
Wood products showing declines: particleboard/fiberboard down 24.4%, treated wood down 5.0%
Energy input prices fell 0.9% monthly and 10.3% year-over-year

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS REACHES CRITICAL LEVELS 10

52% of U.S. households (70 million) cannot afford a $300,000 home
Median new home price estimated at $410,000 in 2026
47.5 million households can only afford homes priced up to $200,000
Only 20.7 million owner-occupied homes available under $200,000, creating massive supply-demand imbalance
Minimum income required for $200,000 home at 6% mortgage rate is $55,500
Housing affordability pyramid shows largest household concentration in lowest price ranges

MANUFACTURING PMI SHOWS CONTINUED GROWTH DESPITE CHALLENGES 11

ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 52.4% in February 2026 (above 50% indicates expansion)
Industry respondents note ongoing tariff impacts on raw materials and supply chains
Computer and electronic products sectors particularly affected by tariff policy changes
Some manufacturers report January business slowdowns as orders pulled forward for 2025 revenue
Order books remain strong going forward despite near-term adjustments

GSE PORTFOLIO EXPANSION CONTINUES 1

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added combined $12.5 billion in agency MBS in January 2026
Measured pace of MBS purchases helping nudge mortgage rates lower
Represents ongoing government-sponsored enterprise support for mortgage market liquidity
Portfolio activity part of broader market stabilization efforts amid rate volatility

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

Multifamily transaction volumes collapsed 25% year-over-year to $8 billion in January despite stable pricing, while Texas faces $818 million in March CRE foreclosure auctions dominated by apartment complexes. Fannie Mae completed a $961 million CAS tender offer as NYC seeks $21 billion in federal backing for its Sunnyside Yard housing development

MULTIFAMILY TRANSACTION VOLUME COLLAPSES

Apartment sales volume fell 25% YoY in January to $8 billion with mid/high-rise trades dropping 39% to $2.7 billion while garden properties declined 15% to $5.3 billion 1
Entity-level deals plummeted 64% YoY to $600 million while individual asset sales decreased 18% to $7.4 billion according to MSCI Real Assets data 1
Commercial property price indexes for multifamily dropped just 0.1% YoY despite transaction volume decline, with MSCI noting “momentum for price growth is healthy” over the last nine months 1

INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL SHOWS SIGNS OF RETURN

Institutional buyers accounted for 25% of purchases but only 19% of dispositions in 2025, indicating net accumulation by insurance companies, opportunity funds, endowments and pension funds 1
Private investors dominated with 65% of acquisitions and 67% of sales, technically reducing their exposure as institutional capital regains prominence in the market 1
Veris Residential announced $3.4 billion all-cash acquisition by Affinius Capital consortium expected to close Q2 2026, potentially boosting transaction volumes in April-June period 1

TEXAS MULTIFAMILY DISTRESS AT CRITICAL LEVELS

CRE loans flagged for March foreclosure sales topped $818 million for the fourth consecutive month above $800 million, with almost 70% of the 42 properties being apartment complexes 2
Houston leads with 16 Harris County properties flagged for auction while distress spreads across Texas Triangle including Dallas County with 8 properties 2
Notable distressed assets include Whitney at The Heights (186 units, $34 million loan), The Mission at Medical Apartments (453 units, $34.7 million CMBS loan), and Stratton Apartments (444 units, $33.5 million Fannie Mae loan) 2

GSE CAPITAL MARKET ACTIVITY

Fannie Mae completed tender offers for $961 million in Connecticut Avenue Securities notes across 23 series from 2017-2023 vintages, with settlement expected March 3rd 3
BofA Securities served as lead dealer manager with Wells Fargo Securities as dealer manager for the CAS tender with participation rates varying from 0% to 100% by series 3
Fitch assigned final ratings to Jubilee CLO 2024-XXVIII DAC reset notes, a EUR450 million securitization managed by BSP CLO Management with ratings from AAAsf to B-sf 5

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT SEEKS FUNDING

NYC’s Sunnyside Yard project seeks $21 billion in federal funding for 12,000-unit affordable housing development over 180 acres of active rail lines in Queens 4
Mayor Zohran Mamdani met with President Trump to discuss the proposal which would create parks, childcare, hospitals and other infrastructure over the rail yard 4
Engineering challenges limit development to 80% of the rail yard due to train traffic and electrical clearance requirements for the active transportation hub 4

INDUSTRY NEWS

Leadership changes at major housing organizations and recognition of finance leaders highlight industry evolution, while mixed-income housing development reaches new heights.

NAHB BUILD-PAC LEADERSHIP CHANGE 12

WNC President and CEO Will Cooper, Jr. appointed Chairman of BUILD-PAC
BUILD-PAC is NAHB’s bipartisan political action committee
Cooper installed during 2026 International Builders’ Show in Orlando (February 18)
Brings over decade of BUILD-PAC Trustee experience to chairman role
Focus on electing pro-housing, pro-business candidates to federal office

MIXED-INCOME HOUSING DEVELOPMENT ACCELERATES 14

Mixed-income housing construction reached highest level in decades in 2024
Roughly 608,000 units completed according to NAHB analysis of Census data
Adaptive reuse projects delivered nearly 25,000 apartments in 2024 (50% increase)
Nearly 180,000 units currently in reuse pipeline
Office-to-apartment conversions account for 40%+ of adaptive reuse projects
Strong demand near transit and major employment hubs driving growth

The Daily Dose of Real Estate is compiled from federal agencies, industry sources, and specialized trade publications to provide comprehensive coverage of residential real estate and mortgage market developments.