Daily Dose of Real Estate for March 31

Late night social media post from a billionaire hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, moves $7 trillion worth of housing finance plumbing. Ackman posted on X this weekend that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “stupidly cheap” and could be a 10x trade (super objective read from the largest private shareholder of GSE stock). Michael Burry, The Big Short, agreed, which is either reassuring or terrifying depending on your read of history. Both stocks are still down 60% from September, the Warsh nomination to replace Powell is stuck in committee over a building renovation investigation, and nobody in Washington appears any closer to articulating an actual capital plan for the GSEs.

The rest of the housing economy is dealing with the real world. Mortgage rates hit their highest level of 2026 — Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year fixed at 6.55%, Freddie Mac’s weekly at 6.38% — as Brent crude topped $116 and the Iran war entered its fifth week. Powell told a room full of Harvard undergrads that rates are in a “good place” and the Fed will look through the oil shock, which was enough to collapse rate-hike odds from 50% to 2% in a single afternoon. Zillow revised its 2026 outlook downward, estimating the rate spike has already erased a third of this year’s affordability gains (we didn’t have much to give back!). CrossCountry Mortgage closed the book on Two Harbors at $10.80 a share, the private credit sector is gating redemptions left and right, and Democratic governors are quietly gutting their own climate programs because voters care more about electricity bills than emissions targets. Spring selling season is off to a memorable start.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mortgage rates hit their highest level of 2026, with the Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed at 6.55% and Freddie Mac’s weekly average jumping 16 bps to 6.38%
• Fed Chair Powell told Harvard students rates are in a “good place” and signaled no rate hikes, saying the Fed will “look through” the Iran oil shock; market-implied hike odds collapsed to 2.2%
• Powell flagged rising defaults and investor withdrawals in private credit but said the sector does not currently pose systemic risk
• Brent crude topped $116/barrel as the Iran war entered its fifth week; Brent is up roughly 55% in March, a record monthly gain
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares surged 30%-plus after Bill Ackman called them “stupidly cheap” and predicted potential 10x returns
• CrossCountry Mortgage finalized its $10.80/share all-cash acquisition of Two Harbors Investment Corp., ending the UWM bidding contest
• Zillow revised its 2026 housing outlook downward, estimating that the rate spike has already erased roughly one-third of year-over-year affordability gains
• The U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves dropped to 56.8% in Q4 2025, a 31-year low per the IMF
• Democratic-governed states are pulling funding from clean energy programs and redirecting it toward electricity bill relief as affordability politics intensify ahead of the midterms
• Miami’s housing market is telling two stories: a buyer’s market with 9.7 months of inventory overall, but a booming ultra-luxury segment largely immune to rate pressure

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• Zillow Downgrades 2026 Housing Outlook as Rate Spike Erases Affordability Gains. Zillow revised its forecast in a March 24 analysis, estimating that the recent 50-basis-point jump in mortgage rates has already wiped out roughly one-third of the year-over-year affordability gains the market had achieved. Zillow now frames 2026 as a range of scenarios rather than a single forecast: if rates and unemployment remain elevated, existing-home sales could decline 0.73% rather than the previously projected 4.3% increase. A median-income household had seen buying power reach $331,483, the highest since March 2022, before rates reversed course. Zillow Research | Scotsman Guide
• Cotality: 2026 Started with Sluggish Price Growth, Sharp Regional Split. Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic) March 26 report on the property market found January home price growth was just 0.7% nationally, with 34% of the 100 largest markets showing year-over-year declines. Florida, Texas, and the West are seeing the most declining markets, with North Port, FL posting a 6% annual drop. Borrower equity fell 2.8% nationally to an average of $295,000 in 2025, with California and Florida driving the decline. National months’ supply reached 4.5 months in February, about one week more than the same period in 2025. Cotality
• Miami’s Squeezed Middle: Entry-Level Luxury Vanishing as Market Polarizes. A Realtor.com analysis shows Miami’s market is bifurcating sharply. The metro has 9.7 months of inventory overall — the highest in the country — and has shifted firmly into buyer’s-market territory. But ultra-luxury sales ($10M-plus) remain near record pace, powered by cash buyers and international capital. The “missing middle” continues to shrink as rising HOA fees, insurance premiums, and Florida’s post-Surfside reserve requirements squeeze middle-market and entry-level luxury condo buyers out of the market, concentrating activity at the low and high ends. Realtor.com
• Miami’s Two-Track Market: Buyer’s Market Overall, Luxury Boom Continues. A Realtor.com analysis shows Miami has shifted into a buyer’s market with 9.7 months of inventory, the highest in the country. Prices in Palm Beach and Broward are falling year-over-year. But the ultra-luxury segment remains insulated: Miami-Dade’s $10M-plus and $3,000/sqft-plus single-family sales are running well above pre-pandemic levels, driven by cash buyers and international capital. Rising HOA fees and insurance premiums are squeezing middle-market buyers and accelerating the polarization between entry-level and ultra-luxury. Realtor.com via Newsweek
• Spring Season Faces Headwinds from Rate Volatility. The rate environment has turned sharply against the spring buying season. Thirty-year fixed rates rose more than half a percentage point in the past three weeks alone, and a Clever Real Estate survey found 94% of prospective buyers would change their purchase plans if rates fail to fall below 6%. Zillow notes that buying power had reached its best level since March 2022 before the recent spike, with a median-income household able to afford a $331,483 home, but that window is narrowing. Zillow via TheStreet

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Rates Hit 2026 Highs. The Mortgage News Daily 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.55% on March 30, down 9 bps on the day but up sharply from sub-6% levels just three weeks ago. Freddie Mac’s weekly PMMS average jumped to 6.38% as of March 26, up 16 bps from the prior week. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.65%. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.75%, up 21 bps week-over-week. Mortgage News Daily | Freddie Mac
• Applications Slide. MBA data for the week ending March 20 showed total mortgage applications down 10.5% week-over-week. Refinance applications fell 15%, and purchase apps also declined as higher rates, affordability constraints, and economic uncertainty pushed buyers to the sidelines. MBA VP Joel Kan attributed the weakness to elevated oil prices keeping Treasury yields high. MBA via Fortune
• GSEs Buying MBS to Stabilize Market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are placing large bids for mortgage-backed securities to support liquidity and ease borrowing costs amid Iran-driven volatility. The intervention briefly pushed rates below 6% earlier in 2026, but the strategy has limits against broader inflationary headwinds, and rates have resumed climbing. National Mortgage Professional

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Powell at Harvard: Rates in a “Good Place,” Will Look Through Oil Shock. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Harvard students Monday that the Fed sees inflation expectations as well-anchored despite rising energy prices and does not need to respond with rate hikes. He said monetary policy works with lags and tightening now would weigh on the economy after the oil shock subsides. Market-implied odds of a 2026 rate hike collapsed from over 50% on Friday to 2.2% after his remarks. Powell’s term ends May 15, with one more FOMC meeting before his departure. CNBC | CNN
• Powell Flags Private Credit Risks. Powell said the Fed is watching the $3 trillion private credit sector “super carefully” amid rising defaults, fund redemption gates, and investor withdrawals. He noted the sector is a relatively small part of total assets and does not currently see the makings of systemic contagion, but is monitoring bank exposures closely. The U.S. private credit default rate has hit 5.8% in early 2026. Reuters via Investing.com
• Kevin Warsh Nomination Stalled. Powell’s designated successor Kevin Warsh remains held up in the Senate Banking Committee as U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro continues investigating renovations at Fed headquarters. Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block the nomination until the investigation is resolved. Powell said he has “no intention” of leaving until the Senate confirms a replacement. CNBC
• Fannie/Freddie Shares Surge 30%+ on Ackman Call. Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman called Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “stupidly cheap” in a weekend X post, predicting potential 10x returns. Fannie surged as much as 42% and Freddie rallied 41% in Monday trading, the biggest jumps since May 2025. Michael Burry echoed the view, calling the opportunity “rare.” Both stocks remain down roughly 60% from September peaks. Bloomberg
• Democratic States Retreat from Climate Mandates Under Affordability Pressure. A growing number of Democratic-governed states are pulling funding from clean energy and renewable programs and redirecting it toward electricity bill relief and customer rebates. Governors across New England and the mid-Atlantic are retreating from the utility-bill-charge model that defined Biden-era climate policy, framing it as financially and politically untenable as energy costs dominate cost-of-living concerns ahead of the midterms. Politico/E&E News

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Oil Tops $116 as Iran War Enters Fifth Week. Brent crude surged past $116/barrel on Monday after Iran warned against a U.S. ground invasion and Houthi forces launched their first missiles at Israel. Brent has gained roughly 55% in March, a record monthly surge for the contract. U.S. gasoline averaged $3.98/gallon nationally. The IEA has assessed the Strait of Hormuz disruption as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Al Jazeera | CNBC
• Markets Rally on Powell Comments. Treasuries bounced and 10-year yields posted their biggest decline since early February after Powell eased fears about imminent rate hikes. The Dow rose more than half a percent, though the S&P 500 slipped on a rout in chipmakers. Traders erased wagers on a rate hike after Powell’s Harvard appearance. Bloomberg
• Recession Risk Rising. Goldman Sachs has raised its probability of a downturn over the next 12 months to 30%, driven by the oil price surge. Bloomberg Economics’ big data tracker put the U.S. CPI for March at 3.4% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February, with rising fuel prices the main driver. The PCE price index stood at 2.9%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Bloomberg
• U.S. Dollar’s Reserve Currency Share Drops to 31-Year Low. IMF data released Friday showed the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.8% in Q4 2025, the lowest since 1994. Foreign central banks have not been dumping dollar assets outright — USD holdings remain near $7.46 trillion, roughly flat since 2014 — but they have been loading up on assets in dozens of smaller “non-traditional reserve currencies,” whose combined share has more than doubled since 2021 to 6.1%. Central bank gold holdings also rose to levels last seen in 1977. Wolf Street
• Key Data Week Ahead. U.S. retail sales and the ADP employment report release Wednesday, the trade deficit Thursday, and the March employment report Friday. The jobs report will be the first major data release potentially reflecting the economic impact of the Iran war. Mortgage Reports

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• CRE Lending and Transactions Growing, Distress Concentrated. NAIOP’s H2 2025 U.S. Capital Markets Report found lending and transaction volumes growing across property types and valuations largely stabilized. However, distress remains concentrated in investment-grade properties and CMBS loans. Construction activity has moderated in industrial and multifamily, and office development continues to contract. NAIOP
• March CMBS Maturities: $3.18B Across 87 Loans. The March 2026 CMBS hard maturity roster totals $3.18 billion, led by retail (37.7%), office (23.1%), and mixed-use (22.8%). Over 97% of the cohort is performing, with only $78.7 million in non-performing status. The largest maturity is the $598.6 million BMR Pool mixed-use and life science portfolio. CRE Daily via Trepp
• Apartment Prices Stabilizing, Rent Collections Improving. Chandan Economics’ weekly briefing noted apartment property prices are showing early signs of stabilization. On-time rental payments at independently operated units rose to 83.9% in March, the fifth increase in six months. The full-payment realization rate climbed to 96.1%, the highest since mid-2025. Year-over-year performance remains negative but the gap is narrowing. Chandan Economics
• GSE Multifamily Caps Set at $88B Each for 2026. FHFA set 2026 multifamily loan purchase caps at $88 billion each for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a 20%-plus increase from the $73 billion caps in 2025. Fifty percent of purchases must be mission-driven. The agency will raise caps if needed but will not lower them even if origination volumes fall short. Multi-Housing News
• $1.8 Trillion CRE Maturity Wall Looms. Approximately $1.8 trillion in commercial loans are scheduled to mature in 2026 across roughly 7,000 properties. Many owners who acquired properties during the 2020-2021 low-rate window face refinancing at significantly higher rates. Analysts see both distress opportunities and elevated risk as cap rates remain under pressure from higher interest rates. Commercial Property Advisors

INDUSTRY NEWS

• CrossCountry Mortgage Finalizes Two Harbors Acquisition. CrossCountry Mortgage reached a definitive agreement to acquire Two Harbors Investment Corp. for $10.80/share in an all-cash deal, ending a bidding contest with UWM Holdings. Two Harbors terminated its prior merger agreement with UWM, with CrossCountry paying the $25.4 million termination fee. The combination creates a fully integrated mortgage company spanning origination through servicing, with over $370 billion in unpaid principal balance. Expected to close in H2 2026. HousingWire | National Mortgage Professional
• Simon Property Group CEO David Simon Dies at 64. David Simon, who led Simon Property Group for more than three decades and built it into the world’s largest retail REIT with a market cap near $60 billion, passed away March 22 after a battle with cancer. His son Eli Simon, who was named COO in 2025, has been appointed CEO and president effective immediately. Simon Property Group
• Private Credit Sector Under Stress. Multiple major private credit funds have gated redemptions in recent weeks, including Ares (capping withdrawals at 5% after requests hit 11.6%), Apollo, and Blue Owl Capital. The U.S. private credit default rate reached 5.8% in early 2026, with Morgan Stanley warning it could spike toward 8%. Blackstone’s $48 billion BCRED posted its first monthly loss since 2022. The Financial Stability Oversight Council voted in late March to publish new guidance on nonbank financial company oversight. CNBC
• Oksenholt Capital Calls for GSE Exchange Uplisting. Oksenholt Capital Management disclosed it holds more than 1 million GSE securities, including over 700,000 shares of Freddie Mac common stock, and called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to return to a major public exchange to improve transparency and attract long-term private capital. National Mortgage News