Daily Dose of Real Estate for May 15

Mortgage rates spent the week reminding everyone they answer to the Strait of Hormuz, not the Fed. The MND index hit a six-week high of 6.57% Wednesday before easing to 6.52% Thursday, while April CPI ran 3.8% and PPI posted its biggest annual jump since 2022 – both attributable largely to oil. The Fed published its annual household survey, which found financial well-being holding steady – though “steady” here means stuck at a level that has drifted down from its 2021 peak and stayed there. The survey is essentially a consumer sentiment read, fielded back in October, so it tells you households are absorbing shocks rather than getting ahead, and that the mood is cool and unmoving – I think the technical term is “meh”. Retail sales grew 0.5% – solid headline, though gasoline did most of the lifting – and jobless claims rose to 211,000, higher than expected but still low by historical standards. Housing inventory hit its highest April level since 2019 at 1.47 million units, which sounds like progress until you recall the pre-pandemic norm was closer to 2 million.

Harbor Acquisition Disorder is on full display as stakeholders spent the week in court and in bidding wars. Rocket sued UWM for $100 million over alleged non-solicitation breaches tied to Mr. Cooper’s MSR purchases, an escalation of the Gilbert-Ishbia feud that now has a docket number. Two Harbors’ board rejected UWM’s $12.50 bid as “illusory, predatory, and unactionable”(doesn’t leave much room for negotiation) and reaffirmed the CrossCountry deal ahead of the May 19 vote. Zillow quantified what dual agency costs sellers whose agent is also working for the buyer: $1.49 billion over three years. On the commercial side, CBRE reported lending at a five-year high and Brookfield’s new CEO promised $20 billion in transactions over two months, the recovery narrative holding everywhere except hotels, where the same Iran war driving inflation is also driving up the fuel costs operators run on.

Let’s get you caught up and out the door in 3 minutes. Tim

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Mortgage rates pulled back to 6.52% on May 14, down 0.05 points after hitting six-week highs midweek, with the Iran war still the dominant source of volatility. Mortgage News Daily
• April inflation ran hot on both ends: CPI rose 3.8% annually and PPI surged 6% year over year, the biggest increase since 2022, driven largely by oil prices. Mortgage News DailyMortgage News Daily
• The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair on May 13, succeeding Jerome Powell. Paul Hastings LLP
• The House Financial Services Committee marked up a slate of fraud and AI bills on May 13, including measures on AI use in financial services and bank fraud technology.
• Rocket Mortgage sued UWM on May 14 for roughly $100 million, alleging UWM breached non-solicitation covenants tied to Mr. Cooper MSR sales. Yahoo Finance
• Two Harbors’ board rejected UWM’s latest $12.50-per-share bid as “illusory, predatory, and unactionable,” reaffirming the all-cash CrossCountry deal ahead of a May 19 vote. NMP
• New Zillow research found same-agent dual agency transactions cost home sellers a combined $1.49 billion over three years. zillow
• April retail sales decelerated to 0.5% growth, with the gain driven mostly by higher gasoline prices; weekly jobless claims rose to 211,000. Invezz
• CBRE reported commercial real estate lending activity reached a five-year high in Q1 2026, with borrowing costs easing. CBRE
• Brookfield’s new CEO told analysts the firm expects to complete roughly $20 billion of real estate transactions over a two-month span as the CRE recovery accelerates. Irei

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS

• April home sales soften as inventory builds. Increasing mortgage rates held homebuyers back in April, and for the first month in 2026, year-over-year new home listings outpaced home sales, according to Zillow’s April Market Report. Total properties for sale reached 1.3 million, with monthly active inventory up 5.8% and annual inventory up 3.7%. Zillow via TheStreet TheStreetTheStreet
• Inventory hits highest April level since 2019. There were 1.47 million unsold homes at the end of April, up 5.8% from March and up 1.4% from April last year, NAR reported. That translates to a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, still short of the roughly 2 million homes for sale typical before the pandemic. Fortune FortuneFortune
• Liquidity improving even as supply rises. National inventory was up 2.3% year over year in the latest weekly data, while absorbed listings rose 17.5% and new pendings increased 10.7% over the same period. Median national list prices were down 2.2% year over year, while price cuts remained elevated at roughly 36% nationally. HousingWire HousingWireHousingWire
• Pending sales slip below year-ago pace. Weekly pending home sales dipped slightly below last year’s pace for the first time in six weeks, snapping a streak of consistent year-over-year growth, while purchase application growth has slowed noticeably over the past two weeks. OC Real Estate Ocrealestateinc
• Mortgage debt rising fastest in unexpected states. A Realtor.com analysis found mortgage debt growth concentrated in Alaska, Delaware, and Alabama, diverging from traditional high-cost coastal markets. Realtor.comMortgage News Daily

MORTGAGE MARKETS

• Rates ease after touching six-week highs. The average top-tier 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.52% on May 14, down 0.05 points, after yesterday’s levels left the average lender at six-week highs of 6.57%. The Iran war remains the primary source of volatility for markets. Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News Daily + 2
• PPI delivers the bigger inflation shock. Wednesday’s Producer Price Index showed a much bigger surge in inflation than Tuesday’s CPI, though the mortgage-specific bond market made a full recovery by day’s end. The reaction underscored how sensitive rates remain to incoming inflation data. Mortgage News Daily Mortgage News DailyMortgage News Daily
• Purchase applications hold up despite higher rates. Mortgage applications increased 1.7% for the week ending May 8, with purchase applications higher over the week and 7% ahead of last year’s pace, per MBA data. The FHA share of applications increased slightly while refinance applications were slightly down. Fortune FortuneFortune
• Purchase lock volumes hold ground as refinance share collapses. New borrowers remained active in April, pushing purchase mortgage rate-lock volumes 9% higher than year-ago levels, while refinance share slipped to 23% of total volumes from 44% in the first quarter, Optimal Blue reported. Conforming originations fell below 50% of total lock volumes for the first time since Optimal Blue began tracking the metric, at 49.9%. Scotsman Guide(published May 12; just outside the 48-hour window) scotsmanguidescotsmanguide
• Freddie Mac PMMS edges higher. Freddie Mac’s May 14 report put the weekly 30-year fixed average at 6.37%, up 0.07 points from the prior week, tracking the recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields. The Mortgage Reports The Mortgage Reports
• HELOC and home equity rates hold near 2026 lows. The average HELOC rate stood at 7.21% and the average fixed-rate home equity loan at 7.36%, matching the 2026 low first seen in mid-March, according to Curinos data. Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance

REGULATORY & POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Senate confirms Warsh as Fed chair. The Senate voted to confirm Kevin Warsh to serve as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 13, with Powell’s term as chair ending May 15 though he remains a governor. The transition arrives amid the most divided FOMC in decades and rising inflation readings. Federal Reserve / Paul Hastings Paul Hastings LLP
• House Financial Services marks up fraud and AI bills. The committee held a May 13 markup of legislation including the Bank Fraud Technology Advancement Act, the AI PLAN Act, the Unleashing AI Innovation in Financial Services Act, and the FUTURES Act, the latter aimed at modernizing regulatory supervision technology. Consumer Bankers Association Consumer Bankers Association
• House releases amended 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, eyes vote next week. HFSC Chair French Hill and Ranking Member Maxine Waters released the House’s version of the bill on May 14, stripping a provision that would have required large institutional investors of build-to-rent single-family homes to divest that property within seven years; the amended text now specifies that institutional investors are not required to sell any covered single-family home purchased before or after enactment. The bill retains a temporary ban on a central bank digital currency through 2030, and because it differs from the version the Senate passed 89-10 in March, it would have to return to the Senate. The Hill
• Fed releases annual household well-being report. The Federal Reserve Board’s Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025 report found financial well-being consistent with recent years and the labor market solid despite some softening. Price increases remained the most common financial concern, though the share calling it a major concern declined slightly. Federal Reserve Federal ReserveFederal Reserve
• Boston Fed’s Collins flags tightening scenario. Boston Fed President Susan Collins gave May 13 remarks titled “The U.S. Economy: Resilience Amid Risks and Uncertainty” at the Boston Economic Club, and in a CNBC interview said she sees some scenario where the Fed could be tightening. Boston Fed Paul Hastings LLP
• CFTC issues no-action relief on event contracts. The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk announced a no-action position on May 13 regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping regulations for event contracts. CFTC Paul Hastings LLP
• Treasury and OCC host financial literacy roundtable. NCUA Chairman Kyle Hauptman participated in a May 13 financial literacy roundtable hosted by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. NCUA Paul Hastings LLP
• AEI argues single-family density would boost local tax revenue. An AEI Housing Center report calculated effective and new-construction property tax rates across 84 million single-family homes and found that allowing greater single-family density would generate substantially more tax revenue than the status quo. In a Seattle case study, the authors estimate relaxed land-use restrictions would generate more than $1.1 billion in tax revenue over 10 years. AEI (published May 12; just outside the 48-hour window) aei + 2

ECONOMIC NEWS

• Retail sales decelerate, gas does the heavy lifting. April retail sales grew 0.5%, with the gain driven mostly by higher gasoline prices; the control group used for GDP calculations rose 0.5%, down from 0.8% previously, and sales excluding autos rose 0.7%, down from 1.9% in March. Invezz InvezzAIMS
• Jobless claims climb above expectations. Initial claims rose by 12,000 to 211,000 for the week ending May 9, above the 205,000 expected, while continuing claims increased by 24,000 to 1.782 million, suggesting unemployed workers may be finding it harder to secure new jobs. Trading Economics TRADING ECONOMICSInvezz
• PPI posts largest monthly jump in four years. Producer prices posted their largest monthly increase in four years in April, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures are becoming more entrenched, with the Fed watching whether higher energy costs feed into wages and consumer prices. Invezz Invezz
• Import and export prices hit multi-year highs. Import and export prices climbed to multi-year highs in April, with higher fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz straining global trade flows. Invezz Invezz
• Construction input prices move higher. Residential construction input prices moved higher in April, according to NAHB analysis of producer price data, adding to cost pressure on homebuilders and multifamily developers. NAHB Eye on Housing Mortgage News Daily
• Treasury yields ease as markets digest inflation. Treasury yields eased as energy costs drove a hotter U.S. inflation print; the 10-year traded around 4.45%, with several Fed officials including Kashkari and Goolsbee reiterating that inflation remains too high. CNBC Mortgage News Daily

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS (INCLUDING MULTIFAMILY)

• CRE lending hits a five-year high. Commercial real estate lending activity reached a five-year high in Q1 2026, CBRE reported, with average mortgage interest rates falling 110 basis points quarter over quarter to 5.7% and loan constants down 10 basis points to 6.7%. Average commercial LTV ratios rose to 61.5% from roughly 59% a year earlier. CBRE CBRE + 2
• Brookfield sees recovery accelerating. Brookfield expects to complete roughly $20 billion of real estate transactions over a two-month period as the sector recovery accelerates, new CEO Connor Teskey told analysts, citing stronger transaction activity, improving valuations, and materially better financing conditions, with hospitality, logistics, and residential leading. Institutional Real Estate Inc. IreiIrei
• Q1 commercial originations rebound 52%. Commercial and multifamily originations increased 52% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a meaningful rebound in lending activity, the MBA reported, though volumes fell 30% from Q4 on normal seasonal patterns. World Property Journal World Property JournalWorld Property Journal
• NAHB survey flags multifamily cost pressure. A new NAHB survey highlighted growing pressure on multifamily projects from rates and insurance costs, as developers navigate tighter financing conditions and elevated input prices into 2026. CRE Daily CRE Daily
• Fed survey shows CRE borrowers regaining capital access. The Fed’s latest survey shows institutional CRE borrowers are regaining access to capital, consistent with the broader narrative of improving liquidity and narrowing pricing gaps across the sector. CRE Daily CRE Daily
• Iran conflict pressures hotel operators. The Iran conflict is pressuring hotel operators with higher fuel costs and weaker Middle East demand, despite a strong start to 2026, a divergence within an otherwise recovering CRE landscape. CRE Daily CRE Daily

INDUSTRY NEWS

• Rocket sues UWM for $100 million. Rocket Mortgage, as successor to Mr. Cooper, filed suit May 14 in New York State court alleging UWM breached a non-solicitation covenant tied to MSR transactions completed between January and June 2024, when Mr. Cooper purchased three pools of loans from UWM for $773 million carrying roughly $65 billion in unpaid principal balance. UWM’s spokesperson dismissed the lawsuit as “baseless and opportunistic.” Mortgage Professional America CMP + 2
• Two Harbors board rejects UWM’s latest bid. Two Harbors’ board called UWM’s $12.50 proposal “illusory, predatory, and unactionable” and reaffirmed its recommendation of the all-cash CrossCountry deal ahead of the May 19 special meeting. The board cited two Fitch downgrades of UWMC’s credit outlook in the past six months and leverage at an all-time high of 3.2x. Mortgage Professional America CMPCMP
• Zillow finds dual agency costs sellers $1.49 billion. Home sellers in same-agent dual agency transactions, where one agent represented both buyer and seller, lost a combined $1.49 billion over three years, with an estimated loss per home of about $2,165, according to a new Zillow analysis. Sellers who listed off the MLS lost a combined $1.36 billion, typically selling for 1.3% less than sellers who listed publicly. Zillow Research zillowzillow
• REIT M&A activity surges. U.S. publicly traded equity REITs logged four M&A deals worth nearly $16.8 billion through April 15, with privatizations dominating as buyers target REITs trading at discounts to net asset value. CRE Daily CRE Daily
• Detroit lender feud intensifies. The Rocket suit marks the latest escalation in a bitter personal and business feud between Rocket Companies Chairman Dan Gilbert and UWM CEO Mat Ishbia, with the complaint alleging Ishbia directed brokers to target refinances on loans whose servicing rights UWM had sold to Mr. Cooper. Detroit NewsThe Detroit News